National Football League

Bounce Back For The Pack?

Updated Jul. 14, 2021 12:02 p.m. ET

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By Jason McIntyre

My parents told me I sounded like a broken record when, as a child, I would recite obscure stats about sports because other people didn’t know them – or perhaps didn’t care.

I was one of those nerdy kids who kept stats manually, in one of those spiral notebooks. I was attracted to numbers at an early age, and in college, I dove deeper, began to take the emotion out of gambling and learned to trust the numbers.

You aren’t going to like the numbers in Week 7, but trust them as we dive into this week's Tuesday Teases.

Enter the NFL Challenge contest on the FOX Super 6 app for free and you can win this week's $1,000,000 jackpot! Download now at foxsuper6.com!

Money line parlay – 3-teamer at +440 ($100 wager would return $540)

Dallas Cowboys (-110) vs Washington Football Team. Some of the biggest value can be found after island games.

The Cowboys looked embarrassingly bad on MNF in a 38-10 loss to Arizona. Dive deeper into the numbers and Kyler Murray completed just nine passes, Arizona had a 69-yard TD in garbage time, Christian Kirk made a finger-tip 80-yard TD catch, and Dallas turned the ball over four times.

The Cowboys lead the NFL in turnovers (15) and turnover differential (-12). It has been unlucky so far. Washington doesn’t possess that offensive explosiveness, ranking 30th in offensive efficiency.

Cleveland Browns (-175) vs Cincinnati Bengals. Fans have had enough of Baker Mayfield, and the Browns have been outscored against Pittsburgh and Baltimore by 76-13. Fortunately for Cleveland, the Bengals are not those teams. In 22 games under Zac Taylor, Cincinnati has yet to defeat a team with a winning record.

Philip Rivers, operating from a clean pocket, dug out of a 21-0 deficit with a 371-yard, 3-TD passing game Sunday vs Cincinnati. (Remember last week when the media told you he was washed?) Mayfield is set up for a big performance on the road.

The Browns injury report will be important – specifically guard Wyatt Teller, and in the secondary – but this is a number to remember: the Bengals are 1-11-1 in one-score games under Zach Taylor. 

Pittsburgh Steelers (-125) at Tennessee Titans. The leading rusher (Derrick Henry, 588 yards) faces the most efficient run defense in the NFL. You can’t underestimate the loss of Devin Bush – Pittsburgh’s best linebacker against the run and pass – who is out for the season.

But the bigger loss is Titans LT Taylor Lewan, who Henry runs behind the most. The likely replacement for Lewan is Ty Sambrailo, who gave up strip sack to JJ Watt last week. This week, he’ll go up against Watt’s brother, TJ, who is the #1 rated edge rusher in the NFL per Pro Football Focus.

The biggest number difference here: Net yards per play. Pittsburgh is 8th (0.6) and Tennessee is 26th (-0.7).

Teasers

With only four games carrying spreads over a touchdown, there aren’t many great teaser options this week – unless you want to get creative. 

Green Bay Packers (-3) at Houston Texans. Everyone watched Aaron Rodgers look mortal against the Bucs in a terrible two-interception performance, one of the worst of his Hall of Fame career. Tampa Bay’s pressure bulldozed the Packers offensive line. Tampa rates third in pressure rate, third in blitz percentage, and second in sacks.

The good news? The Texans like to blitz (seventh) but rarely get pressure (26th). Rodgers should have time to pick apart a defense that gave up 601 yards and 8.6 yards per play to Ryan Tannehill & Co.

The Packers are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss against the spread. Great buy-low bounce-back spot for the Packers, especially if you tease them to +3.5.

Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) at Denver Broncos. The Broncos took advantage of a Patriots team that had little practice time due to COVID-19 over the past two weeks, and confused first-year New England QB Cam Newton with blitzes.

Coach Vic Fangio has gotten blitz-happy in the past two games, generating 10 sacks. We’ve seen what happens when teams blitz Patrick Mahomes (see MNF vs Baltimore).

There’s some skepticism about a big number in a division matchup - the Chiefs won both games by a combined 53-9 last year, so you could toss in the revenge angle, too - hence teasing it down to 2.5.

Los Angeles Chargers (-8) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars. We’ve talked about teams performing better as underdogs than favorites, and the Chargers are a league-best 3-0 as dogs. But coming off the bye week, where impact starters DE Joey Bosa, OT Bryan Bulaga, OG Trai Turner, WR Mike Williams and DE Melvin Ingram should be healthy, L.A. is a big favorite.

Fortunately, the Jaguars have lost five in a row, Gardner Minshew has gone from folk hero to candidate to be benched (eight turnovers). It’s tough to back a rookie QB (Herbert) giving more than a touchdown, so teasing the Chargers down to -1 is the play.

New Orleans Saints (-7.5) vs. Carolina Panthers. The Saints have been notoriously slow-starting in the last few years, but begin the upward tick in October. They’ve won 14 straight October games and are a staggering 21-3 ATS in October in their last 24 games.

The New Orleans secondary will likely be back healthy off the bye week, and presumably Michael Thomas will have ironed out his issues with the coaching staff. Sean Payton is 9-2 ATS after a bye, and he’s going against a coach he had on staff just a few years ago (Joe Brady, Carolina OC).

Teddy Bridgewater has had this game circled all year, but the Panthers were beaten soundly in the trenches against Chicago and that could play out against Sunday. Teasing the Saints to .5 point makes the most sense.

Enter the NFL Challenge contest on the FOX Super 6 app for free and you can win this week's $1,000,000 jackpot! Download now at foxsuper6.com!

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Jason McIntyre