Bears Takeaways: Week 13
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Despite blizzard-like conditions, the Bears offense “exploded” for a season-high 26 points in a relatively easy victory over the 49ers, one of only two teams in the league with a worse record than the Bears going into week 13. Unfortunately, it probably knocked the Bears out of the running for the 2nd overall pick, but they are still in good shape for a top five pick.
Matt Barkley got his first win as an NFL starter (in just his second start) and thoroughly out-played Niners QB Colin Kaepernick. The conditions were admittedly rough and Barkley didn’t even complete a pass until there was 1:43 left in the first half, but from that first completion on Barkley was sharp and in control of the offense.
The Bears looked awful for most of the first half, but scored a touchdown on their final drive and then on their first two drives of the second half to build an insurmountable lead. Despite a few more drops from Josh Bellamy, Barkley moved the Bears down the field with ease for 17 second half points on three drives.
The 2nd overall draft pick would have been nice, but the Bears have had so many close, heart-breaking losses this year, that I think the players needed a win for their morale. They got an easy one Sunday over a Niners team that is clearly much worse than even an injury-riddled Bears squad. The win does nothing for the Bears 2016 chances, but there were some significant positives which I’ll cover below in my takeaways.
Bears Takeaways
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1.) Matt Barkley gets his first NFL win
Barkley’s stat line for the day (11/18, 192 yards, 0 TDs) isn’t anything special, but considering the blizzard conditions and lack of receiving talent, it was pretty darn impressive. Barkley didn’t even complete a pass until there was 1:43 left in the first half, but went on a tear from that point.
His passes were on the money and if Josh Bellamy could catch, Barkley’s numbers would have been much better. Bellamy dropped a couple of deep passes that hit him in the hands (for the 2nd week in a row), but Barkley didn’t let that bother him. He was accurate with almost every pass in the 2nd half, stood tall under pressure like last week, and moved the Bears down the field for three consecutive touchdown drives.
Barkley isn’t the Bears answer at quarterback for the future, but the last two weeks he’s looked like an above average backup, who can win a game or two if needed in relief. He’ll need to prove it for a few more weeks, but after two starts he’s shown enough potential to be at least be in the mix for the backup job in 2017.
2.) Jordan Howard is a keeper
The Bears are now 3-0 this season when Jordan Howard gets over twenty carries. Considering the Bears have only three wins total, maybe they should get Howard the ball more often. On Sunday he ended up with a career-high 32 carries for 117 yards and three touchdowns.
Howard plowed through the Niners front seven, who didn’t appear to be giving their best effort, for red zone scores on three consecutive drives. His ability to run through arm tackles and keep the pile moving is unique among Bear running backs.
On the season Howard is averaging 4.9 yards per carry, which is good for 4th in the NFL in a tie with star rookie Ezekiel Elliott. If Howard can boost his per carry average over five yards, he will be the first Bears running back to do so since Walter Payton (5.5 ypc in 1977).
Howard has proven to be a steal as a 5th round pick in this year’s draft and should have the primary back role solidified for next season. The Bears coaching staff has seemed reluctant to hand him the job, but the stats show Howard to be worthy of the role.
There are some areas that Howard needs to improve on, specifically his receiving and pass-blocking skills, but the running talent is there for him to be a workhorse back for the Bears next season.
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3.) Josh Bellamy is frustrating
After dropping a game-winning touchdown pass last week against the Titans, one would expect Bellamy to show improved focus on catches this week. Instead, he dropped not one, but two deep throws that hit him in the hands. One of which would have been a sure-thing touchdown, while the other would have been a huge gain.
Bellamy did make up for some of the drops with a career-best four catches for 93 yards and an 11-yard run on a reverse. He showed some explosion and smooth route running skill, getting open consistently on a wet field.
Bellamy clearly has the athleticism to be an NFL receiver, but has been inconsistent and looks awkward catching the football. He leaves his feet on catches almost everytime despite not needing to. After three years in the league, Bellamy should have such a simple skill down pat by now.
He is a key special teams player, so should have a spot on the roster regardless of his receiving skills. Though if Bellamy is going to be part of the Bears future at receiver, he needs to improve his ability to catch the ball consistently. Hopefully, the Bears won’t need to start Bellamy again next season.
4.) The Bears pass rush is showing potential
Perhaps the most impressive part of the Bears victory Sunday was the six sacks by the defense. The play of the Bears front seven has been one of the only bright spots in an otherwise depressing season.
With six sacks on Sunday, the Bears now have 30 as a team which is good for 7th in the NFL. The Bears are also one of only three teams that have three players with six or more sacks: Willie Young (7), Leonard Floyd (7), and Akiem Hicks (6).
The sack total is even more impressive when considering that the Bears are dead last in the league in blitz percentage. They are getting more pressure than most teams despite just almost always rushing only four players.
With a healthy Pernell McPhee added to the mix next year, a full season of NT Eddie Goldman, an offseason of development for Floyd, and the potential addition of another pass rusher in the draft, the Bears could have one of the best pass rushes in the league in 2017.
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5.) Akiem Hicks may be the Bears only Pro Bowl player
It’s unlikely that the three-win Bears are going to get any players in the Pro Bowl, but if they have one chance it’s DE Akiem Hicks. He’s been a beast on the d-line for the Bears, both clogging interior running lanes and generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
Hicks has six sacks already and is starting to gain national attention after his 10-tackle, 2-sack, and 1-forced-fumble performance against the Niners gained him an NFC Defensive Player of Week award.
HIs two-year, $10M contract looks like an absolute steal for the Bears and the combination of Hicks, Goldman, Floyd, Young, and McPhee gives the Bears a solid foundation to dream on in 2017.
6.) Good to see Leonard Floyd back
It was a scary moment when first-round pick Leonard Floyd was carted off the field back in week 11. It looked like more bad injury luck for the Bears in a season filled with bad breaks. Despite rumors of a serious neck injury, it turned out Floyd suffered just a minor concussion.
He was back on the field last Sunday against the Niners and was back to making explosive plays off the edge. Floyd had two sacks, one for a safety, and could have had two or three more but allowed the speedy Kaepernick to escape.
Floyd has been in the backfield consistently since returning from his first injury this season and with some added strength could start finishing more plays. Floyd has a chance to finish the season with 10+ sacks and has shown the potential to be an annual double-digit sack player. It looks like the Bears finally hit on a first round pick.
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7.) Nick Kwiatkoski flashed potential
The silver lining of losing starting ILB Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman is that 4th round rookie Nick Kwiatkoski finally gets a chance to show what he can do. In his first full game, Kwiatkoski finished with a team-leading nine solo tackles.
There were some mistakes made by Kwiatkoski, as expected, but overall he showed a ton of potential as a run-stopping force. His instincts and physical playing style are a much-needed addition to the Bears defense. Kwiatkoski flashed enough skill on Sunday to maybe push both Trevathan and Freeman for a starting gig next season.
8.) Bryce Callahan is another keeper
One of many Bears who has struggled with injuries this year, Callahan was healthy on Sunday and showed why the Bears have kept him around. The former undrafted free agent in 2015 has been consistently good in coverage when on the field this season.
I’m a little biased, as I’ve been a fan of his since his time at Rice, but when he’s healthy Callahan has proven to be a solid slot corner. He excels at sniffing out and stopping screen passes for little to no gain, rarely gets burned downfield, and has been a sound tackler despite his diminutive frame (5’10, 195).
The Bears secondary has been a mess this year, but they could come out of this season with a couple of viable cornerback options. So far Callahan has been the most impressive of the young corners and his contributions as a punt returner Sunday just adds to his future value.
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9.) Young tight ends a mixed bag
With starting tight end Zach Miller out for the season, the Bears have been giving an extended trial to young TEs Ben Braunecker and Daniel Brown. Both players got their season-high in snaps on Sunday and flashed both promising and troubling traits.
Brown was the more impressive of the two with two catches for 13 yards after a touchdown catch last week. The former wide receiver from James Madison has a similar athletic profile to Zach Miller and looks like a dynamic option as a receiving tight end.
The problem with Brown is his lack of blocking ability. As a former receiver, it’s understandable that he’s not a finished product yet as a blocker, but he will need to improve quickly if Brown is going to be the Bears primary tight end. He got absolutely smoked as a pass blocker by OLB Ahmad Brooks and gave up a key third down sack.
Undrafted rookie Ben Braunecker is an impressive athlete as well, drawing comparisons to Rob Gronkowski during draft season. He’s had a slow start with the Bears, but has gotten important snaps the last two weeks.
Braunecker’s first audition with the Bears hasn’t gone that well. After struggling as a blocker against the Titans, “Bronk” was late on the field on a punt, drawing a delay of game, and then gave up a punt block when beaten badly by former Bears Shawn Draughn. On the bright side, Braunecker was better as a blocker this week and made a couple of key run blocks which sprang Jordan Howard for positive gains.
The Bears future at tight end is uncertain, but both Brown and Braunecker will get plenty of chances to prove they are part of it in the next few weeks. Neither player is ready yet, but both are starting to flash signs that they could be a productive duo as soon as 2017.
10.) Draft position update
It was tempting to root for the Bears to lose against the Niners and get pole position for the #2 overall pick. It turned out that the Niners were clearly worse as a team than the Bears and I’d be shocked if they win another game. Though the Bears are still in the mix for a top-five overall pick in next year’s draft.
As of today, the Bears would pick fourth in the draft behind the Browns, Niners, and Jags. The Jets have the same record as the Bears but the Bears have the lowest strength of schedule (.497) in the league, which gives them the tie-breaker with any team they end up tied with for losses.
One thing to consider is that the Niners and Jets play this week and that is a game that even the Jets should be able to win. That would put the Bears solidly in the 4th draft slot with only a few games to go.
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11.) The 49ers are really bad
I thought the Bears were bad until watching the Niners play this week. The Bears defense played really well, but the Niners gained just six net passing yards. Six! That’s hard to do.
Not only was the Niners passing game disastrous, but their defense seemed to be giving a half-ass effort. There were multiple runs by Jordan Howard that should have been stopped for less yards, but the Niners defenders just didn’t seem all that anxious to tackle Howard.
The Bears haven’t played the winless Browns yet, but the Niners are by far the worst team I’ve watched this season. It could be worse Bears fans!
12.) Player development is key for last few weeks
I’ve already covered the extended looks the Bears got on Kwiatkoski, Brown, and Braunecker, but there are plenty more young players who should see the field over the next few weeks. Here are a few guys that will see more snaps before the end of the season:
S Deon Bush – He played the majority of safety snaps last week and played decent. It could be that the Niners are just awful, but Bush looked noticeably more comfortable this week.
Bush was a huge hitter in college, which we haven’t seen any of yet, but he has the potential to develop into a force as a run-stopper and midfield enforcer for the Bears. His pass coverage will need to improve, but the Bears have a chance to see if he can hold his own the next few weeks.
*Bush will have to get a lot better to stop talk about the Bears passing on QB Dak Prescott for Bush (Kwaitkoski & Hall) in the 4th round while Prescott was available.
CB Deiondre Hall – After flashing potential in the pre-season, Hall has spent most of the season injured. He should be back within a week or two and will have a chance to show the Bears brass if he can handle playing corner at the NFL level. I still think he’ll end up at safety, but also think he has enough talent to be an impact player in the Bears near future.
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CB Kyle Fuller – After spending the whole season on IR so far, Fuller is reportedly close to returning. The 2014 first round pick has been a huge disappointment but has occasionally flashed talent in his young career. The Bears are way too thin at cornerback to give up on a potential starter like Fuller and I think they will give him as many snaps as he can handle the last fourth of the season.
DL Jonathan Bullard – It’s a really bad sign for Bullard’s future that he was a healthy scratch this week, but I’m not ready to give up on him quite yet. Bullard has gotten some chances to play this year and hasn’t produced, but he’s talented enough that most draft sites had him graded as a late first-round pick in this year’s draft.
The Bears need to figure out what they have in Bullard. He’s been passed on the depth chart by Cornelius Washington, but that doesn’t necessarily mean Bullard can’t play. Washington has flashed a ton of potential in his career, just hasn’t been able to stay healthy until this season.
Hopefully, Bullard will get plenty of snaps over the next few weeks, instead of losing them to Mitch Unrein like in this week’s game. The Bears know what Unrein can do, but Bullard hasn’t gotten enough snaps to show his talent yet. Playing Unrein makes no sense for a team already playing for 2017, which means that the Bears will probably give Unrein all of the 5-tech snaps moving forward.
13.) The Bears offense exploded for their highest point total of the season!
26 points. Ugh.
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