Bears Should Avoid Jimmy Garoppolo Optical Illusion
Oct 26, 2014; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (10) carries the ball as Chicago Bears defensive end Lamarr Houston (99) chases during the fourth quarter at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots won 51-23. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports
Should the Bears try to acquire or avoid Jimmy Garoppolo? Caution: QBs in New England Patriots uniforms may be less talented than they appear.
There has been a lot of noise lately about how desperately the Chicago Bears need to work out a trade with New England for Jimmy Garoppolo. Jordan Campbell over at Da Windy City pretty directly voiced what seems to be the prevailing misconception in this discussion. I hope Jordan won’t take it personally that I’ve selected his article as the best of the dead wrong. Or that it is my starting point for explaining why Jimmy Garoppolo is a bad idea.
Jordan makes two assertions early in this article which many people seem to take as fact. First, he calls Tom Brady “perhaps the greatest quarterback to ever play the game”. I’ll circle back to that one because it deals more with opinion than facts. Next, though, he goes on to say that the Patriots have “made a history of drafting quarterbacks, developing them, and then trading them for draft picks.”
This also seems to be a fairly common opinion and it is barely supportable. Let’s have a look at the Patriots recent history at backup QB, shall we?
Aug 18, 2016; Foxborough, MA, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Brian Hoyer (2) under pressure from New England Patriots linebacker Kevin Snyder (45) in the second half at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots defeated the Bears 23-22. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
Ryan Mallett, third round draft pick
Played four games with no starts with the Pats who traded him to the Texans for a conditional 6th or 7th round pick. Worth it? The Texans didn’t think so. They released him after he missed the team flight to a game in Miami. He had a career-best year with the Ravens last year with a QB rating of 74.5 in two games which he started.
Brian Hoyer, undrafted free agent
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Played 13 games with no starts for the Pats who released him. Since then Hoyer has gone on to have 26 starts in 31 games for five different teams, including the Bears. Widely panned by Jay Cutler haters everywhere as possibly “even worse than Cutler”, despite putting up very Cutler-like numbers in Houston last year.
Matt Cassel, 7th round draft pick
Played 30 games with 15 starts with the Pats, filling in for injured Tom Brady for the entire 2008 season. Widely hailed at that point as the second coming of the messiah, the Pats traded him (and Mike Vrabel) to Kansas City for a second-round pick. Worth it? He went 4-11 in his first season with the Chiefs, came back with a Pro Bowl (Alternate, backing up Tom Brady again) season and a playoff loss. Two more poor seasons and he was released by the Chiefs. Since the one playoff season in KC, he has not played in more than nine games in a season, and only posted a QB rating over 80 once (81.6 in 2013 through 9 games, 6 starts with the Vikings.)
Honorable(?) Mention
Prior to Cassel we have Matt Gutierrez, Kevin O’Connell, Rohan Davey and Zac Robinson all of whom were released and none of whom ever played significant roles for any team in the NFL. So, yes, prior to Garappolo, 2 out of the last 3 backup QBs from the Patriots have been traded for draft picks. But that is 2 out of the last 7 if you look a little further. I’ll even give you 2 out of 5 if you want to ignore UFAs and just count draft picks. Heck, that’s 2 in a row if you want to be both near-sighted and a cherry picker.
But the much more important question when you are looking at a potential trade from the Bears’ end of the deal, how many of those recycled Patriots QBs have been worth the price? Been counting all day and I’m still at ZERO. How many draft picks would you have been willing to give up for Brian Hoyer? Would you trade a first rounder for Jacoby Brissett? He came in for Garoppolo and looked pretty good, and he’s a rookie. Doesn’t that mean he’s even more talented than Garoppolo? No, it means he plays for Bill Belichick.
Jan 16, 2016; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) talks with New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick before the game against the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Divisional round playoff game at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
Patriot’s QBs Minus the Mystique
So, now we have some absolute facts as a starting point. First, the Patriots do not have a history of developing quarterbacks who become quality starters elsewhere in the NFL. Second, backup quarterbacks who play for the Patriots rarely look as good after they leave the Patriots. That brings me back to Tom Brady. Tom Brady is not a great quarterback, he is a Bill Belichick quarterback on a Bill Belichick team. He is an optical illusion, just like Matt Cassel was. He looks great because the system makes him look great. The same way the system makes his replacement look great when pressed into service.
Having dispensed with all of the mythology, then, let’s look at Jimmy Garoppolo without the illusion that everything the Patriots turn to gold stays gold forever. Jimmy G was acquired with the highest draft pick the Patriots have spent on a quarterback in a long time, a second rounder. Statistically, he is clearly the best backup quarterback the Patriots have had in the Brady era. And on the 90th pass attempt of his young career, the Miami Dolphins wadded him up like a paper doll and knocked him out of the game.
Garoppolo is Still an Unknown Quantity
Now I’m not saying that makes him flimsy or some kind of constant injury risk, but at 6’2″, 225 lbs, he’s no Cam Newton, either. Might he be worth the multiple early round draft picks the Patriots are likely to ask for him? Certainly, he has that potential. But, how long do you think he’ll last if he comes to Chicago and takes the kind of pounding Jay Cutler has endured here. The most likely outcome for any team that trades for Garoppolo and does not put a supporting cast around him is a remake of the Jay Cutler story in Chicago.
On the other hand, if you give Garoppolo a team in which he has absolute faith, and that faith is always well deserved, yes, he will take you deep in the playoffs year after year. So would Jay Cutler, Matt Cassel, or Kyle “Does 20 Yards Count as a Deep Ball” Orton. The kind of leadership required to bring such performances out of an offense that is not already performing at that level is a rare trait. I’m not saying that Garoppolo doesn’t have it, I’m saying Belichick clearly does, and there is no way to even guess if any of Belichick’s QBs have it until you see them play for someone else.
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