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With the season finally over, it’s time to start looking at the 2017 season and what decisions the Bears are going to make this offseason. The Bears have 27 free agents and before they start focusing on external options and the draft, they need to figure out who they want to bring back from this year’s roster.
I’ll break down the offensive free agents first and then the defensive players later this week. Here is a list of Bears offensive free agents and my take on whether they should be brought back for 2017.
Bears Free Agents: Offense
WR Alshon Jeffery – Besides the quarterback position, Jeffery’s future is the biggest decision of the offseason for the Bears. Jeffery’s yards per start numbers are in line with the top tier receivers in the game over the last two seasons, but he hasn’t played enough games and disappeared too often late this season to pay him the $14-$15 million per year that other top free agent receivers have gotten lately.
A deal closer to the $11-$12M that both Doug Baldwin and Keenan Allen got recently is the most I think Jeffery deserves after starting only 56% of Bears games the last two seasons. The Bears have the option to franchise Jeffery again, but at around $17M it shouldn’t even be an option for the Bears front office.
Jeffery is rumored to be asking for close to what he made this year, $14-$15M, and if that’s true then the Bears should let him walk and use the money elsewhere. They have plenty of cap space, but plenty of holes all over the roster. For $15M the Bears should get a more reliable player than Jeffery.
Verdict: Let him go
WR Marquess Wilson – Flashed his potential with an eight catch, 125-yard game in week 12, but has appeared in less than half of the Bears games in his four-year career. He’s basically been hurt since the Bears drafted him and I don’t see that changing anytime soon. Let some other team deal with Wilson’s injury issues.
Verdict: Let him go
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WR Deonte Thompson – If you have read my weekly takeaways post, you know I’m not Thompson’s biggest fan. He ended the year ranked 19th in kick return average (among players with at least 10 returns), which is a lot better than where he was ranked mid-season (dead-last).
Thompson had a couple of nice returns late in the year to salvage his average but was pretty bad for most of the season. He has a bad habit of taking the ball out of the end zone and not getting anywhere close the 25-yard line, where the Bears would get the ball if he just accepted the touchback.
Thompson may never be an elite kick returner, but he showed some legitimate receiving chops in the second half of the season. After just two catches in 2015, Thompson had 22 this year for 249 yards and two touchdowns.
There were some drops, including one in the end zone that would have been a game-winner, and most of his stats came in one eight catch, 110-yard game, but he showed significant improvement as the season went on. Thompson also has elite deep speed with a 40-yard dash timed as low as 4.21 in college.
The Bears don’t have that kind of speed anywhere else in the receiver group and Thompson shouldn’t cost much to keep around.
Verdict: Keep him (but not as a kick returner)
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QB Matt Barkley – His semi-competent play was one of the biggest surprises of the Bears 2016 season. Barkley played well enough in his first four NFL starts to be 4-0 if he had a better supporting cast. His play regressed significantly in his last few starts, but he showed enough potential to be a solid backup option on a good team.
The Bears aren’t a good team yet and Barkley may end being their best option at quarterback in 2017. He’s worth bringing back as a safety valve if the Bears can’t find a better starter next year. It may come down to whom the Bears like better between Barkley and Hoyer. My vote is Barkley.
Verdict: Keep him (as a backup QB)
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QB Brian Hoyer -Captain check-down put up some pretty impressive statistics during his brief stint as the Bears starting quarterback this season, but they were empty numbers. The Bears scored less with Hoyer under center than they did with either Cutler or Barkley.
Hoyer moved the ball well between the 20s, but was ineffective in the red zone and didn’t scare defenses enough to keep them from stacking the box against the running game.
Hoyer is a solid backup who won’t give games away with turnovers, but he won’t win any games with his arm either. There is a reason he was available for just $2M last offseason. The Bears will probably need their backup to start some games in 2017 and they need one who can do more than complete check-down passes.
The Bears will probably need their backup to start some games in 2017 and they need one who can do more than complete check-down passes.
Verdict: Let him go
G Ted Larsen – I’ve seen a lot of Larsen over the last two seasons and I’m thoroughly unimpressed. To his credit, he plays hard and doesn’t make many glaring mistakes, he’s just not a starting caliber NFL linemen.
After starting most of the 2015 season for the Cardinals, they made zero effort to re-sign him. The Bears shouldn’t either. They have a few young interior linemen with potential (Edison, Kush) and the Bears should give them the first shot to win the depth jobs. At least we don’t know their ceiling yet.
Verdict: Let him go
G/C Eric Kush – Known more for his tank-top collection than his skill as a blocker, but Kush flashed some potential in eight games and four starts for the Bears this season. The former Chiefs sixth-round pick has some legit NFL traits, mainly his abnormally quick feet which are a great fit for the Bears zone blocking scheme.
Kush has enough potential to develop into a starting caliber interior linemen and showed talent when given a chance to play this season. The Bears need to improve their o-line depth and developing young, cheap talent is the best way to do it.
Verdict: Keep him
OT Mike Adams – I was excited about the Adams signing. The former 2nd round pick started 20 games in his first three seasons with the Steelers but missed all of 2015 with a back injury. His injury cost him his job in Pittsburgh and he seemed like a potential steal for the Bears.
Unfortunately, he didn’t play well (at all) when given a chance with the Bears last year. Adams had one of the lowest individual game grades of the season from Pro Football Focus in his one start with the Bears and then hurt his back again.
The Bears need to upgrade their offensive tackle depth this offseason and Adams’ back just isn’t reliable enough to count on in 2017.
Verdict: Let him go
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TE Logan Paulsen – It seemed the only time we heard Paulsen’s name this season is when he was called for a holding penalty. The veteran is a decent blocker and can catch check down passes, but doesn’t provide much positive value as either a blocker or receiver.
The Bears gave plenty of snaps to young tight ends like Daniel Brown, Ben Braunecker, and MyCole Pruitt late in the season to try and develop a better second tight end than Paulsen. If they bring him back, that means they failed to find an upgrade this offseason.
Verdict: Let him go
OT Nick Becton – He’s spent the last two seasons on the Bears practice squad, but couldn’t get a call-up to the active roster despite plenty of o-line injuries the last two years. When tackle Mike Adams went down with an injury late in 2016, the Bears called up a player they had signed just two weeks earlier over Becton who had been around for two years.
The Bears announced their futures contract signings this week and Becton wasn’t on the list. That’s another pretty clear sign that he’s not coming back in 2017.
Verdict: Let him go
OT Matt McCants – A former 6th round pick by the Giants in 2012, who didn’t play as a rookie and was signed by the Raiders in 2013. McCants started three games in three seasons for Oakland before being released this year.
The Bears signed McCants in week 15 this season to replace the injured Mike Adams as a swing tackle. McCants has good size at 6’6, 318, long arms, and quick feet for a big man. He has some potential and is worth keeping around for a longer look.
Verdict: Keep him
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K Connor Barth – In seven NFL seasons before signing with the Bears, Barth had an impressive 84.5% accuracy on field goal attempts including 98.4% inside of 40-yards. He wasn’t nearly as good in his first season with the Bears.
Barth hit just 78.5 percent of his kicks including misses from under 30 and 40 yards. He also finished dead last in the league in touchback percentage on kickoffs.
Barth kicked well (94%) for John Fox in part of the 2014 season for the Broncos and earned Fox’s trust enough to drop Robbie Gould last offseason. The Bears could use an upgrade at kicker, but I’m guessing Fox lobbies for another year of Barth. If they do bring Barth back, hopefully they will at least bring in some competition.
Verdict: Let him go (but they probably won’t)
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Exclusive Rights Free Agents:
A player who has been on an active NFL roster for less than two seasons and can only negotiate with their current team as long as that team offers at least a minimum qualifying offer.
With only a minimum contract offer necessary to keep the players below, they are all but locks to be back in 2017 if the Bears still want them.
WR Josh Bellamy – It will be an interesting decision for the Bears to make on Bellamy. They have invested two years in developing the former cornerback as a wide receiver and he’s shown the ability to get open against NFL defensive backs. The problem is that he can’t catch the ball consistently.
Bellamy’s amateurish habit of jumping to catch the ball whether he needs to or not will need to change if he’s going to ever become a reliable option. Can he change that habit and improve his hands in one offseason?
Even if he doesn’t improve much as a receiver, Bellamy is one of the Bears best special teams gunners, which might be enough to keep him around. With just a minimum contract required to retain Bellamy, I’m guessing the Bears bring him back for his special teams contributions. If Bellamy learns how to catch the ball properly, that’s gravy.
Verdict: Keep him (hopefully, the Bears won’t need him at WR).
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TE Daniel Brown – The Bears have been bringing in tight end talent off the waiver wire all year and may have found a keeper in Brown. He didn’t play for the Bears until week 12 this year but had 16 catches for 124 yards and a touchdown in the final six games.
Brown started three games for the Bears this year and looks like a potential long-term contributor at the tight end position. He struggled at times as a blocker, which isn’t surprising considering Brown was a wide receiver in college at James Madison.
The Bears still have Zach Miller at tight end, but with his injury history, they need a reliable backup option and Brown is all but a lock to be brought back in 2017.
Verdict: Keep him
QB David Fales – Despite the Bears drastic struggles at the quarterback positon in 2016, Fales didn’t see the field until the fourth quarter of week 17. He was drafted by the old regime, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if Fales isn’t part of GM Ryan Pace’s long-term plans.
That being said, there has been some rumored interest in Fales over the last two years from teams like the Patriots and Ravens but Pace was unwilling to deal him for a late round pick or allow a team to sign him off the practice squad.
If Pace had plans for Fales in 2017, he probably would have played sooner this season but it won’t cost much to keep Fales around and allow him to compete for a role next year. They could always use him as a trade chip if other NFL teams are still interested.
Verdict: Keep him (why not?)
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QB Connor Shaw – Suffered a broken leg in the preseason this year, but Shaw impressed in training camp and his brief preseason audition. HC John Fox went out of his way to praise Shaw after his injury and stated that he had a “bright future here”.
With the Bears likely to release Jay Cutler, and every other quarterback on the roster a free agent, it’s possible that Shaw finds himself in competition for a job in Chicago next year. The former undrafted free agent has more mobility than Barkley or Hoyer and showed good accuracy in college.
I’ll be doing an in-depth write-up on the Bears quarterback options soon, but for now it’s safe to say that Shaw will be on the Bears roster in training camp next year.
Verdict: Keep him
LS Patrick Scales – I know literally nothing about Scales long-snapping skills, but it won’t cost anything to keep him around as competition.
Verdict: Keep him
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