National Football League

7 Best Bets

Published Apr. 14, 2020 5:12 p.m. ET

share

facebookxredditlink

By Jason McIntyre

The NFL draft is less than 10 days away, which means finally, American sports you can gamble on!

As NFL teams winnow their draft boards and attempt to verify medical information, we’ll likely see some small odds movements in the coming days. These are the 7 best bets on the draft board today, and I hope to add a few early next week as information trickles out.

 New York Giants' first pick: Tristan Wirfs (+150)

The Giants had three first round picks last year and got their franchise QB (Daniel Jones), a defense tackle (Dexter Lawrence) and a cornerback (Deandre Baker). We know GM Dave Gettleman loves the trenches, dating back to his time in Carolina. He traded for one defensive lineman (Leonard Williams) last year, and in the last two drafts, a staggering six of his 16 picks have been on the defensive line.

Now, he goes to the offensive line with Wirfs. Also, if you look at the odds for the position of the Giants first pick, offense is a -162 favorite. Over the weekend, Isaiah Simmons was the favorite; Tuesday morning, Wirfs and Simmons were both +150. As draft boards narrow in the coming days, keep an eye on the odds on the versatile Wirfs.

Henry Ruggs' draft position: Over 13.5 (-110)

The list of sub 6-foot WRs to be drafted in the Top 15 in the last decade is thin. And unimpressive; health has been an ongoing issue.

John Ross (2017) going ninth has been a disaster for the Bengals. Corey Coleman (2016) went 15th to the Browns, and he has just 61 catches and 5 TDs while bouncing between four teams. Tavon Austin going eighth to the Rams in 2013 is also on the list of picks that didn’t work out.

The lone Top 15 receiver pick in the last decade to produce has been Odell Beckham. Nobody thinks Henry Ruggs is Odell Beckham. I can see Ruggs sliding to 15, 17 or even 21.

Justin Jefferson's draft position: Under 21.5 (-110)

Joe Burrow’s meteoric rise from, "Maybe he’d be drafted a year ago" to "No. 1 overall pick" has been well chronicled.

What about Jefferson, who went from 0 catches in 2017 to 111 in 2019 (tied for first), 1,540 yards (3rd) and 18 TDs (2nd)? At 6-foot-1, his 4.43 40 was identical to Odell Beckham’s. It wouldn’t shock me if Jefferson went before Ruggs, either to the Raiders at 12, 49ers at 13, or the Broncos at 15.

New York Jets' first pick to be a defensive player: +280

In almost all of my mock drafts for FOX Sports, I’ve had the Jets going with an offensive lineman. This is where it gets interesting: new GM Joe Douglas was with the Eagles front office the year after they won the Super Bowl. They had a Top 10 defense, and had some holes on offense. Naturally, their first three picks were on defense.

The Jets need offensive line help, but if the guys they want are gone, and a trade back isn’t possible, they’ll take the best player on the board. If that’s Javon Kinlaw, you’ll win your bet.

Tua Tagovailoa's draft position: Over 3.5 (-212)

There’s some juice here, and maybe I’m on an island, but I can’t see a scenario where Tua goes first or second, so it’s all coming down to the third pick. We know the win-now Lions aren’t taking him. But will someone trade up for him?

There’s plenty of precedent, as teams to trade up for a QB in the first round in the last four years include Arizona for Kyler Murray; New York for Sam Darnold; Baltimore for Lamar Jackson; Chicago for Mitch Trubisky; Kansas City for Patrick Mahomes; Houston for Deshaun Watson; Los Angeles for Jared Goff; and Philadelphia for Carson Wentz. None of those guys had the injury history Tagovailoa does, though. I think he’s more likely to fall than rise.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers' first pick to be a defensive player: +155 

This could get mucked up a bit if the Bucs trade down to acquire more picks, but there isn’t a lineman expected to be on the board that interests them at 14, and there is an obvious, glaring need in the secondary.

Still, is 14 too rich for a CB-not-named-Okudah or a safety? The Bucs are picking in the middle of what could be a receiver run, and they don’t need one, so that trade down is possible.

D’Andre Swift 1st RB drafted, Jerry Jeudy 1st WR drafted, Joe Burrow 1st QB drafted: +155

We know Burrow is definitely the No. 1 QB. I am 75% certain that Jeudy will be the first WR drafted, even though some teams may have CeeDee Lamb first on their board. (Jeudy is a -120 favorite to be the first receiver drafted, for what it’s worth.)

I’m 50% certain that Swift will be the first RB taken, and I think he’s actually undervalued because of what happened to Georgia’s offense last season. (Swift is a -212 favorite to be the first RB drafted.)

Add it all up, and you've got a pretty nice parlay going to wrap up your 2020 NFL Draft wagers ... for now.

share

Get more from National Football League Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more

in this topic

National Football League