Denver Broncos

5 things that will decide the AFC championship game

Published Jan. 20, 2016 1:41 p.m. ET

Alex Marvez

There’s more to Sunday’s AFC Championship matchup between New England and Denver (3:05 p.m. ET, CBS) than Brady vs. Manning for what might be the last time, but Manning’s level of play is a good place to start in these five keys to the game:

1. PEYTON MANNING

Because of age and injuries, the days of Manning winning games for the Broncos with his arm are over. A more realistic goal is for Manning to not lose Sunday’s contest with mistakes. The best thing Manning has done since returning in Week 17 from a foot injury is avoid turnovers, going 46 pass attempts without an interception against the Chargers and Steelers. By comparison, Manning averaged one interception every 19 passes in his first nine games.

2. WADE PHILLIPS VS. TOM BRADY

This is far more relevant than Manning vs. Brady in determining Sunday’s outcome. Just like most opposing coaches, the Broncos’ defensive coordinator doesn’t have a good track record against New England’s star quarterback --he’s 2-5 as a head coach and coordinator. Phillips, though, has arguably the most talented unit in his 30-plus years running NFL defenses to work with. Brady threw for three touchdowns without an interception against Denver earlier this season, but the Patriots converted only 2-of-13 third downs playing without top wide receiver Julian Edelman (foot) and while losing tight end Rob Gronkowski to a fourth-quarter knee injury. Trying to stop Brady this time will be much harder for Phillips if Pro Bowl cornerback Chris Harris Jr. (shoulder) can’t play with Edelman and Gronkowski both good to go.

3. SPECIAL TEAMS

The turning point in Denver’s 30-24 overtime win over New England in Week 12 came when New England muffed a punt early in the fourth quarter while holding a 14-point lead. That led to a Broncos touchdown and got the guilty party (Patriots returner Chris Harper) waived the following week. Overall, the Patriots have made more mistakes on special teams than in previous seasons. New England still fields the NFL’s best kicker, but Denver’s Brandon McManus can give Stephen Gostkowski a run for his money at Sports Authority Field. The strong-legged McManus played a huge role in last Sunday’s win over Pittsburgh by making all five of his field-goal attempts -- including a 51-yarder -- and sending his six kickoffs for touchbacks in windy conditions. The Broncos must replace returner Omar Bolden, who suffered a season-ending knee injury against the Steelers. Wide receivers Emmanuel Sanders (punts), Andre Caldwell (kickoffs) and Jordan Norwood (punts and kickoffs) are expected to assume Bolden’s return duties.

4. DENVER’S RETURN GAME

The Broncos must continue to mount a solid ground attack with C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman to help compensate for Manning’s physical limitations. Denver was held to a 3.3-yard rushing average by the Steelers, but the Broncos enjoyed a second-half edge in time of possession and gradually wore down Pittsburgh’s defense with 20 carries in the final two quarters. Although the Patriots surrendered a season-high 179 rushing yards in the Week 11 meeting, Jamie Collins missed the game with illness and fellow standout linebacker Dont’a Hightower was sidelined by a knee injury in the second quarter. The Broncos gained only 43 yards on 15 carries with Hightower in the game. When he was out, Denver posted 136 yards and three touchdowns on 17 attempts. That includes Anderson’s game-winning 48-yard scoring jaunt in overtime. Collins and Hightower are both back for the Patriots, although New England’s linebacker depth took a hit Tuesday when backup Jerod Mayo was placed on injured reserve.

5. ROB GRONKOWSKI

The Patriots aren’t a franchise known for trash-talking, but Gronkowski did respond to a Harris comment to ESPN that the best way to tackle the tight end is to “hit him low. Hit him in his knees. That's the best chance you got.” Gronkowski, who hurt his knee on that kind of hit by Broncos safety Darian Stewart, responded on Twitter by writing, “Heard their entire team is good at giving low blows.” You can’t blame Denver for trying psychological warfare in hopes Gronkowski might drop a pass while worrying about his knees. Gronkowski is the league’s best tight end. The Broncos were reminded of that first-hand in Week 11, when he caught six passes for 88 yards and a touchdown.