Atlanta Falcons

2017 NFL Playoffs: The dangerous Divisional round

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 8:11 p.m. ET

Fansided, Andrew Hammond/Fansided

The Divisional round of the NFL playoffs is the most critical round. When you look back at the history of the playoffs, it’s where some of the leagues most iconic games and biggest upsets happen. Since the 2005-06 playoff, at least one of the higher seeds on either the AFC or NFC side of the bracket has lost eight times in this round. By that logic, we’re headed towards an upset of some kind but where and who will be the team that keeps this trend going? If you look at the games this weekend you will notice that each one of the games is a rematch from a game in the regular season and two of the road teams won the first matchup. It’s going to happen but who is the most likely victim? Atlanta, Dallas, Kansas City and New England all host playoff games this weekend. Previous history tells us that one or more of these teams will not reach the conference championship game. So, who’s the most likely victim?

New England Patriots

For starters, we can cancel out the New England Patriots because do you really think the Texans can beat them, in New England? Nope.

Upset chances: 2.5 percent

Atlanta Falcons

The next candidate is Atlanta. The Falcons host a Seattle team that defeated them 26-24 earlier this year. When you look at that game, if it hadn’t been for a third quarter scoring explosion by the Falcons, Seattle controls most of that game. Now things have changed since then, Seattle doesn’t have Tyler Lockett on offense and no Earl Thomas on defense.

That Thomas absence may loom large as Atlanta’s Julio Jones is very capable of going off against the Seahawks defense, like he did the first time accounting for seven catches for 139 yards. This time Atlanta is at home and Seattle has struggled on the road at times this season. Aside from the loss to Arizona in week 16, the Seahawks have looked like a contender in the NFC over the last part of the season. Will this be the last game ever in the Georgia Dome? If Seattle comes to play it could be.

Upset chances: 65 percent

Kansas City Chiefs

Sunday’s first matchup brings Pittsburgh to Kansas City and the AFC West champion Chiefs. The Steelers rolled in the first matchup between these two teams but so much as changed since then. Big Ben was once healthy, got hurt then got healthy again but now he’s hurt. The Chiefs have gotten better on defense and seem to have found an offensive/special teams weapon in Tyreek Hill.

The game’s deciding battle will be the Steelers explosive offense against the Chiefs defense who’s come up with clutch takeaways throughout the entire season. Weather will also be a factor in the game as freezing rain is in the forecast for Sunday’s showdown. That could be enough to slowdown the Steelers as they look to reach another AFC Title Game.

Upset chances: 50 percent

Dallas Cowboys

The final game on Sunday pairs Dallas up with on the hottest teams in the league, the Green Bay Packers. Dallas has had a dream season and the now they face their toughest test, MVP candidate in Aaron Rodgers. This is not the same Rodgers that they faced earlier this season and the defense has gotten much better. Now, the Packers will be without Jordy Nelson out with a rib injury so that may trouble Rodgers a bit.

For the Cowboys, this is as game that many people including myself have been interested in. Dak Prescott and Zeke Elliott have never been in this situation, the playoffs are a completely different animal. Add in the fact that they’ve seen this Green Bay team already and there will be adjustments.

They haven’t played in almost three weeks so there will be some rust to knock off. I won’t be shocked if they win, they’re expected to according to Vegas. The Cowboys have exceeded expectations all season long, can they do it again against the leagues best team over the last month?

Upset chances: 60 percent