Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
With the postseason just around the corner and so much on the line, it’s time to take a look at Week 16’s NFL picks and score predictions.
Two weeks and 32 games–that’s all that stands between us and the playoffs. It’s been a wild ride in 2016, with more ups and downs than the Cleveland Browns’ quarterback depth chart. Still, it’s a little bittersweet considering we’ve only got about a month and a half left of football.
Let’s focus on the positive, though.
Week 16 will provide us with some terrific matchups. Playoff positions are on the line, which means the contenders will be fighting tooth and nail to secure the win while the eliminated teams would love nothing more than to play spoiler. Trust me–that dynamic breeds some excellent football in the final weeks of the regular season.
By excellent football, I mean wild, unpredictable gridiron action that often goes in the opposite direction of what everyone expects. Let’s just say it makes predicting the outcomes of games a tad difficult. Thankfully, that’s why I’m here to help you make those tough decisions.
I’m coming off another strong week. In Week 15, I finished with an 11-5 record, upping my season mark to 132-89-3. You can say what you want about my picks and some of my inaccuracies, but I’m proud of what I’ve brought to the table this year.
There are only two weeks left, so let’s not waste any more time. Here are my NFL picks and score predictions for Week 16.
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New York Giants (10-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-9)
I’m sure the Eagles would love nothing more than to play spoiler against the Giants on Thursday night. That’s too bad, though, because I just don’t see that happening.
Right now, New York is playing exceptional football. They knocked off a surging Lions team in Week 15, and seem destined for another Cinderella appearance in the playoffs. With what Philadelphia has shown in recent weeks, I don’t think they have what it takes to stand in the Giants’ way.
We all know the potential the offense possesses. The mix of Eli Manning and his trio of star receivers can be lightning in a bottle at times, and said lightning is released more often than not. What really has New York cruising right now, though, is its defense, which is playing lights-out football.
With the way Philadelphia has looked on offense as of late, I find it hard to believe they overcome that type of adversity. Even with the home-field crowd at their backs, it’s too difficult to imagine them snapping a five-game losing streak against one of the hottest teams in the NFC.
Carson Wentz will valiantly attempt to keep this one close. Even if he succeeds, the Giants will pull out the win just like the Ravens did against Philly in Week 15.
Prediction: Giants win 31-28
Dennis Schneidler-USA TODAY Sports
Miami Dolphins (9-5) at Buffalo Bills (7-7)
Don’t be surprised if this is the most boring game of the week, which is saying a lot. I don’t think either of these teams are as good as their records would indicate, but it’s where 15 weeks of action has gotten us.
Realistically, the Dolphins haven’t been tested much this season. They’ve only faced four teams currently in possession of a playoff spot, and have a whopping 1-3 record in those games. Of their last seven wins, only one has been by more than a touchdown. Of those, only one was against at team with more than five wins.
What I’m trying to say is the Dolphins are overrated. They’ve had an easy road to 9-5, and are going to get a rude awakening if they make it to the postseason.
Unfortunately for the Bills, they really aren’t any better. They boast a one-sided offense and an underwhelming defense. The only impressive win they have this season came against a Patriots team starting its third-string quarterback.
While I’m not convinced Miami is a serious contender, it’ll improve to 10-5 this week. Matt Moore will do just enough to keep the lead on a Bills team that’s about to watch its slim playoff hopes fade away.
It’s looking like the end is near for Rex Ryan.
Prediction: Dolphins win 24-14
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New York Jets (4-10) at New England Patriots (12-2)
No matter what happens on Sunday, there’s almost zero chance the Jets come away with the win. Not only is their average defense incapable of slowing down Tom Brady and Co., but there’s no way Bryce Petty or Ryan Fitzpatrick finds a way to outscore New England.
This Jets team has slowly unraveled as the season has progressed. Even though they recently knocked off the one-win 49ers, they just can’t seem to put it together against an opponent of any substance.
Meanwhile, the Patriots are rolling with their sights set on the top seed in the AFC. They’re coming off a hard-fought battle against the Broncos, and will be looking to gain some momentum in Week 16 with a dominant performance against a divisional foe.
No matter who’s under center for Gang Green, don’t expect a whole lot of offense. Even against New England’s middle-of-the-road defense, they’ll struggle to put any significant points on the board. As for Brady and the Patriots offense, look for them to light it up against New York’s deteriorating defense.
If you’re a Jets fan, don’t be surprised if you’re ready to change the channel by halftime.
Prediction: Patriots win 35-13
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Tennessee Titans (8-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-12)
Honestly, I’m a bit embarrassed that I thought the Jaguars would turn the corner in 2016. Between the surplus of young talent and the free agency haul, they appeared destined for success this season. Instead, they’ve been one of the league’s laughingstocks.
Meanwhile, the Titans have taken that next step. In fact, they’re right in the middle of the playoff hunt only one year after (momentarily) owning the top pick in the draft. It’s a rare turnaround, but not a completely surprising one considering this roster’s potential.
If Tennessee is going to stay in the race, they must win this game. I’m sure Jacksonville would love to play spoiler, but my guess is the Titans will have other plans in Week 16.
Especially with the way Blake Bortles has played this season, I find it hard to imagine him getting the best of Tennessee’s defense. I know they haven’t exactly been among the NFL’s best this year, but they have enough playmakers on that side of the ball to keep a team like the Jaguars out of the end zone.
The Titans have proved this season how scrappy of a team they can be. With the momentum of Week 15’s defeat of the Chiefs driving them, they’ll go into Jacksonville and hand the head-coach-less Jaguars their 13th loss of the year.
Prediction: Titans win 27-6
Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports
Minnesota Vikings (7-7) at Green Bay Packers (8-6)
It took until midway through the season, but the Packers are finally living up to their potential. With a decent running game now intact, Aaron Rodgers has been able to shine without all of that pressure on his shoulders.
Green Bay is currently riding a four-game winning streak, and appear intent on finding their way into the playoffs. A win against the Vikings would help achieve that goal, and that’ll likely be the outcome on Saturday.
As you probably know, Minnesota is in a bit of a slump right now. They’ve lost seven of their last nine games, and are coming off a pitiful showing against the Colts. It’s been a horrid second half of the season, and chances are things will only get worse before they get better.
Now imagine the type of damage this Packers team can do if Indianapolis can blow out the Vikings. The return of Adrian Peterson was a bust, Sam Bradford has struggled to get the offense moving, and the defense is falling apart as the losses keep piling up. The playoffs are nearly out of reach, and Minnesota doesn’t seem capable of using their divisional foe as a stepping stone.
It’s going to be a good day at Lambeau Field for the Packers. The momentum will keep rolling as the Vikings’ tumble continues.
Prediction: Packers win 34-16
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
San Diego Chargers (5-9) at Cleveland Browns (0-14)
We’re heading into Week 16, and the Browns are still winless. They put together a solid showing against the Bills in the first half last week, but watched their inept defense dig too deep of a hole in the second. I’d expect similar results against the Chargers.
While San Diego has had its own issues in 2016, they’re easily the more talented team right now. Philip Rivers is starting to show signs of age, but is more than capable of going off on any given Sunday (or Saturday). The running game struggled in Week 15, but could get back on track if Melvin Gordon returns from injury.
Despite their subpar record, the Chargers have been a competitive team this year. Most of their losses have come in close battles, and they’ve even secured wins against three possible playoff teams–the Broncos, Falcons and Titans.
Meanwhile, the Browns have been an absolute joke–as evidenced by their record. Even with the return of Robert Griffin III, they still can’t get things going on either side of the football. With only two games left in the season, I’m not expecting that to suddenly change.
The Browns are about to come within one game of completing the second 0-16 season in league history.
Prediction: Chargers win 27-10
Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports
Washington Redskins (7-6-1) at Chicago Bears (3-11)
Despite their 7-6-1 record, the Redskins are a tad overrated at this moment. They have an outstanding offense, but its inconsistent and tends to not show up when needed most. Don’t even get me started on the defense.
Meanwhile, the Bears are better than their record would indicate. Even with Matt Barkley under center, they’ve done a great job of keeping games competitive down the stretch. They appear eager to play spoiler, which is exactly what they’d be doing if they beat the Redskins.
Right now, Washington can’t afford a loss. After dropping their game against the Panthers on Monday night, their playoff hopes are slowly sliding down the drain. A Week 16 loss to the Bears would be nearly insurmountable, especially with how hot the Packers have been in recent weeks.
Unfortunately for the Redskins, that’s what I’m predicting will happen. Kirk Cousins has slowed after heating up in the middle of the season, and the defense is still a mess. As for the Bears, they’ve shown some life recently and will be looking to prove they’re no pushover.
This should be a war between two teams in very different situations. Seeing as the Bears have nothing to lose, though, I foresee them giving the Redskins a lump of coal and an L for Christmas.
Prediction: Bears win 21-18
Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Atlanta Falcons (9-5) at Carolina Panthers (6-8)
I’d like to think the Panthers have a fair shot at winning this game. However, when it really boils down to it, I just can’t imagine a scenario where that happens.
Take this into consideration–the Falcons possess the third-best passing game in the NFL. In Week 16, they’re pitting that air assault against the Panthers’ pass defense, which happens to be the worst in the league. I don’t know about you, but I don’t believe that matchup leans even the slightest in Carolina’s favor.
Put simply, the Falcons are going to shred this secondary on Saturday. They’ve put on clinics the last two weeks to the tune of 83 combined points. Now those games were against the Rams and 49ers, but it still doesn’t discount the fact Atlanta can put huge points on the board in a hurry.
Obviously the Panthers are capable of scoring a few touchdowns themselves. The combo of Cam Newton and Jonathan Stewart has done plenty of damage in the past. It’s not going to be easy for Atlanta’s 25th-ranked defense, which has given up its own fair share of points this year.
Still, when all is said and done, the Falcons should come out on top. Carolina simply doesn’t have enough firepower to keep up with Atlanta’s red-hot offense.
Prediction: Falcons win 43-21
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Indianapolis Colts (7-7) at Oakland Raiders (11-3)
As we saw last week, the Colts are a team worth taking seriously. They slaughtered the Vikings in Minneapolis, and now head into a crucial Week 16 matchup with the surging Raiders. A win would keep them within striking distance in the AFC South.
Unfortunately, I don’t see a win in the cards for Indianapolis.
Right now, this Raiders team is just too good. Even when they get down or have something go awry, they find a way to bounce back. This may be the most resilient team in the entire league, and that quality has helped them secure their first playoff appearance since 2002.
I don’t think they’re satisfied with just going to the postseason, though. No, the Raiders are bent on going the distance. A win against the Colts would only further their cause, both in terms of winning the AFC West and locking themselves into a first-round bye. So you better believe Oakland will come with everything it has.
Andrew Luck will try with all his might to keep Indy alive in Week 16. However, it just won’t be enough. The Colts got off to a miserable start this season, and it has proven too deep a hole to dig themselves out of.
Prediction: Raiders win 35-21
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6) at New Orleans Saints (6-8)
This Saints team just can’t figure out whether or not it wants to be competitive. As I’ve mentioned a few times this season, they win the ones they shouldn’t and lose the ones they shouldn’t. Unfortunately for them, I don’t think that’ll be the case in Week 16.
As great as New Orleans’ offense has been this year, I don’t believe the Buccaneers will have too much trouble slowing them down. Their defense has seen significant improve over the course of this season, and continues to impress on a weekly basis. Despite the Week 15 loss to Dallas, there’s a lot to like about this Tampa Bay D.
There’s even more to like about the offense, though. Jameis Winston is finally playing up to his potential, as the weapons around him are beginning to consistently carry their weight. Especially against the Saints’ subpar secondary, Mike Evans and Cameron Brate should spent all Saturday stuffing the stat sheet.
With that being said, it won’t be a cakewalk for the Buccaneers. This is still an explosive Saints offense capable of loading up the scoreboard. It’s going to take an all-out assault on Drew Brees and Co. to keep this one from getting out of hand.
I believe Tampa Bay can get the job done, though. It should be a high-scoring affair, but the Buccaneers will steal the W in the final quarter.
Prediction: Buccaneers win 34-31
Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
Arizona Cardinals (5-8-1) at Seattle Seahawks (9-4-1)
The Seahawks have already secured the NFC West, but will be focused on maintaining their possession of a first-round bye. They have the perfect opportunity to do so in Week 16 against the reeling Cardinals.
It’s been a disappointing season for Arizona, a team I saw as a serious contender in September. Instead, they’ve watched their talented offense flop and flounder about instead of dominant like it should. The defense has been strong, but it hasn’t been enough to tally more wins than losses.
It’s only going to be more tedious a task against the Seahawks, a team that is right in the mix of Super Bowl contention. Sure, they aren’t perfect–the offense can be stagnant at times and the defense hasn’t been as elite as in years passed. However, there’s still no denying this team can put on a show.
That should be the case against the Cardinals. I’m guessing Carson Palmer and Co. will score a couple of touchdowns, but so will Russell Wilson and the Seattle offense. Especially if Thomas Rawls can get going, they should be able to put plenty of points on the board.
The Seahawks don’t lose at home. The 12th man will help Seattle cruise to their 10th win of the season on Saturday.
Prediction: Seahawks win 27-17
Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
San Francisco 49ers (1-13) at Los Angeles Rams (4-10)
When I first started pondering this game, picking a political candidate came to mind. This is essentially picking the better of two terrible teams. While the records may indicate the Rams should be victorious, I’m not convinced of that assertion.
In Los Angeles’ last eight games, they’ve only managed to score more than 10 points twice. One of those games was a blowout during which most of their points came against the second-team defense. Put simply, the Rams’ offense is a hot mess right now.
Meanwhile, the 49ers have at least been somewhat functional in recent weeks. It’s their defense that has done them in this season. Currently ranked worst in the NFL in yards per game by a large margin, the San Francisco defense is also giving up a whopping 31 points per game–also a league worst.
Some of you may think that gives the Rams the edge. Unfortunately, you’d be dead wrong. As it so happens, Los Angeles boasts the NFL’s worst offense by a large margin. No matter what they do, they can’t seem to get anything going when they have the football. Inserting Jared Goff into the starting lineup hasn’t helped.
It’ll be close, but I believe the 49ers pull out the win in one of 2016’s worst games.
Prediction: 49ers win 14-9
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Cincinnati Bengals (5-8-1) at Houston Texans (8-6)
Believe it or not, the Texans may finally have a decent quarterback under center. While I don’t want to completely jump the gun, it appears Tom Savage is a significant upgrade for the Texans. Then again, just about anything is better than Brock Osweiler at this point.
Houston has made the decision to bench their overpaid free agency bust, inserting Savage into the starting lineup (via NFL.com’s Kevin Patra) after a strong showing in Week 15. The former third-round pick played with confidence and consistency when thrust into action against the Jaguars, and should continue to shine against a subpar Bengals defense.
Assuming he doesn’t crumble under the pressure, the Texans should have little trouble taking care of Cincinnati. One of the big AFC letdowns this year, the Bengals have watched injuries and inconsistent play drop them towards the bottom of the conference after five straight playoff appearances.
Andy Dalton will make a few plays, but it’s going to be tough sledding against the Texans’ tough defense. I’d anticipate an underwhelming day for a Cincinnati offense that can be stale at times.
It’s turned into a tight race in the AFC South, but the Texans currently hold a slim lead. With Osweiler now riding the bench, I believe they’re in a much better position to secure the division crown.
Prediction: Texans win 26-10
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Baltimore Ravens (8-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (9-5)
This is building up to be one of the best games of the entire 2016 campaign. Two hated rivals fighting for the right to call themselves division champs with only two games to go. Can it really get much better than that?
The bad blood between these teams is no secret. In fact, it’ll likely be on display throughout this Sunday matchup. And boy, it should lead to plenty of ups and downs for both teams. It also helps that these two squads are fairly evenly matched.
I’d say the Ravens have a better defense on paper, but the Steelers have a clear advantage on the offensive end. That’s why I’m picking Pittsburgh to come away victorious in this one. I just don’t think Joe Flacco and the Baltimore offense can keep up with the type of production we routinely see from Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown.
Now that’s not to say the Ravens can’t get it going on offense. They’ve been better in recent weeks as their receivers have gotten healthy and the running game has picked up steam. However, there’s no comparison in terms of the potential the Steelers’ offensive weapons possess.
Obviously anything can happen in these big-time rivalries. However, with the AFC North title pretty much on the line, I think the Steelers come in and pound the Baltimore defense into submission.
Prediction: Steelers win 21-20
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Denver Broncos (8-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (10-4)
While both of these teams sporting strong records heading into Week 15, I’m convinced this will not be an exciting game. Neither team is very adept at scoring in bunches, relying more on their defenses to win them games.
That’s why this one could be a bit of a snoozer. I mean, yes, there will be some splash plays. Both offenses possess playmakers, from Tyreek Hill to Demaryius Thomas. However, in terms of the overall packages, both offenses leave a lot to be desired.
So realistically, this game could come down to which offense can muster some production on Christmas Day. When I look at both teams and what they’ve done recently, I have to give the edge to the Chiefs and their band of underrated sparkplugs.
More specifically, I believe players like Spencer Ware and Hill could be the difference in this one. The Broncos offense has stalled down the stretch, while Kansas City has found ways to at least put a couple of touchdowns on the board on a weekly basis. Even against Denver’s outstanding defense, they should find a way to strike paydirt once or twice.
That should be just enough. It won’t be pretty, but it’ll be another divisional win for the Chiefs as they look to close the gap between them and the Raiders. As for the Broncos, their playoff dreams continue to fade.
Prediction: Chiefs win 19-9
Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports
Detroit Lions (9-5) at Dallas Cowboys (12-2)
The NFL saved one of the best matchups for last, and it’s sure to provide sparks on Monday night. The Lions face off against the Cowboys in a game they need to win in order to maintain their grip on the NFC North. Can they get the job done on the road?
I wouldn’t doubt it. Detroit has been a huge surprise this season when it comes to the amount of success its enjoyed. The Lions have not only fielded one of the NFL’s most trustworthy offenses, but they possess a solid defense and clutch kicker who continues to deliver.
Obviously the Cowboys have plenty to offer as well. However, as we’ve seen in recent weeks, they’re far from invincible. Dak Prescott finally had his first rough game, and the defense hasn’t been getting after the quarterback as well as they’d like. This Dallas team is excellent, but it has holes too.
On Monday, the Lions will find those shortcomings and take advantage of them. Whether it’s putting the Dallas secondary through the shredder or forcing Prescott into some bad decisions, I’m predicting Detroit will get the best of the NFC’s top team.
Either way, expect this to be a showdown worth watching. Both teams can’t afford a loss right now, but we’ve already had too many ties this season. The Lions walk away victorious after a resilient showing on the road.
Prediction: Lions win 30-28
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