National Basketball Association

Why we shouldn't assume Roy Hibbert will opt-in

Published Jun. 18, 2015 10:25 p.m. ET

share

facebookxredditlink

foxsports

By Real GM Staff

The expectation is that Roy Hibbert will exercise his $15.5 million player option for next season and return to the Indiana Pacers.

Say what you want about Hibbert, but he's not stupid and that's precisely the adjective most would use to describe someone that would leave $15.5 million on the table with no guarantee that more money is available elsewhere.

The Pacers say they fully expect Hibbert to play out the fourth and final season of his contract. Larry Bird, however, made it clear after the conclusion of a lottery season that it might be more beneficial for the team if he did not. Bird, who is more media savvy than his half-assassin, half-aw shucks reputation suggests, knew exactly what he was doing when he very publicly expressed disappointment in Hibbert and that the Pacers will change their playing style next season.

"We assume he's going to be back and if he comes back, we're probably going to play another style," Bird said back in April. "And I can't guarantee him anything. He's going to have to earn it."

Translation: Roy, you can come back and make $15.5 million, but chances are you won't be playing many minutes while I glare angrily at you from my corner perch at Bankers Life.

Bird's proclamation isn't enough to make Hibbert opt-out, but that doesn't mean we should assume he wouldn't do so anyway.

The Pacers are going to play smaller, shifting from a scheme that won a lot of games and nearly got them to the NBA Finals twice with Hibbert as an anchor. Numerous times this season, especially as they tried get one of the final playoff berths, the Pacers were unable to beat smaller, faster clubs that play without a traditional center.

With the Golden State Warriors winning the title, teams are going to embrace smallball even more than they have already. That makes Hibbert a tough play, despite the fact that he remained strong on defense even as his offensive game crumbled over the last year-plus.

Does Hibbert really want to play behind Luis Scola and Ian Mahinmi?

No matter how bad things have looked since February 2014, it was a no-brainer for the Pacers to match the four-year, $58 million offer Hibbert received from the Portland Trail Blazers in 2011 after the lockout. He was a crucial part of a roster that was built to beat the LeBron James-Dwyane Wade-Chris Bosh incarnation of the Miami Heat. Indiana couldn't break through, losing to Miami three times in the playoffs, but they often stood toe-to-toe with the two-time champions. Without Hibbert, that's impossible.

Signs that Hibbert might be done with Indiana began during the weeks leading up to the 2014 playoffs. He struggled in the early rounds, but Frank Vogel stuck with him knowing his size and rim protection would still be vital against Miami. Vogel was right, but that's no longer the case.

Things shifted immeasurably last summer when LeBron returned to Cleveland, Lance Stephenson departed for a stopover with the Charlotte Hornets and Paul George broke his leg with Team USA. Rivals for a good stretch, the Pacers and Heat are no longer the same.

Hibbert's minutes declined significantly in 14-15 as he turned into a shell of his former self, specifically on the offensive end. Hibbert's value was always more on defense, but watching him operate in the paint recently has been an act of masochism. It seemed more often than not that he was flipping the ball at the rim in hopes of a favorable bounce.

His rebounding and defensive metrics have remained largely stable. His defensive rebounding percentage was actually better in 14-15, but he wasn't competing with Stephenson or George on the glass either. However, he ventured further and further away from the basket on the other end. A career-low 21.7 percent of his attempts came at the rim as he settled into a mid-range game (a career-high 21.1 percent of his looks). The Pacers admittedly looked different this season than they had in recent years, but that doesn't mean the biggest guy on the floor shouldn't be inclined to (and effective at) setting up shop in the post.

Is a fresh start and long-term money at the age of 28 worth leaving several million in guaranteed money on the table?

Indications that Hibbert's future with the Pacers was limited weren't subtle during the season, but they have become even more obvious of late.

Hibbert is spending this offseason in Los Angeles and he's been very quiet on social media. He didn't speak with reporters following Indiana's season finale against Memphis, which ended the team's playoff hopes and saw Hibbert post just seven points and four rebounds in 25 minutes.

He had been a staple at the annual Caroline Symmes Memorial Celebrity Softball Challenge, alongside Robert Mathis of the Colts, but he missed the event for the first time since 2009 earlier this month. Using L.A. as a base this offseason certainly doesn't preclude an athlete from hoping on a flight back to Indianapolis to keep up appearances. His absence wouldn't be noteworthy if it weren't for the other signs.

Hibbert has also disbanded Area 55, a section of loyal fans at Bankers Life, for the upcoming season. An odd move for a player that was once beloved and seems to need as much support as possible from fans that have blamed the center for much that has gone wrong over the last 16 months.

This all seems fishy, doesn't it?

When discussing the possibility that Hibbert might actually pass on $15.5 million and become a free agent, it's imperative that you consider that he's unlike the stereotypical NBA player.

He's very introspective, sensitive, intellectual and incredibly hard on himself. Among desensitized players, it has always been easy to read Hibbert's mental state during and after a game. You could use his facial expressions as a reliable gauge to determine how he, and often the Pacers, played on any given night.

Those are some of the reasons why I wouldn't be shocked if Hibbert opted out of contract this month. His agent, David Falk, has repeatedly said the decision won't be discussed publicly and told Scott Agness of Vigilant Sports that he "will inform the Pacers first when a decision is made."

Hibbert could still be mulling over the decision, or he may have made it months ago. Falk is a respected agent that has advised Hibbert of the outcomes either way. Even if he's largely glued to the bench in 15-16, a $15.5 million paycheck is a significant one. If he opts out, he can hit the free agent market before his value decreases further and serve as a fallback option for the many teams already lining up offers for other defense-first big men like Tyson Chandler and DeAndre Jordan.

There are arguments either way, despite how simple a decision it seems on the surface. Hibbert has become unpredictable on the court, which is why he just might decide to end his tenure with the Pacers prematurely.

More from RealGM - NBA:

share

Get more from National Basketball Association Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more

in this topic

National Basketball Association