National Basketball Association

Washington Wizards 2016-17 Season Outlook: Stuck In NBA Purgatory?

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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May 15, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Wizards guard John Wall (2) and guard Bradley Beal (3) react against the Atlanta Hawks during the second half in game six of the second round of the NBA Playoffs at Verizon Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

The Washington Wizards took a step back last season. With a new coach and some new pieces on the roster look for the Wizards to be…basically the same

The Washington Wizards did not have a very good 2015 season.

They did not have a very good offseason.

They probably won’t have a very good 2016 season.

They’re kind of a drag, especially because John Wall is awesome.

So, before we get into actually talking about the reality of this season, here are some John Wall highlights to lighten the mood:

Now for the preview.

After two years of breathless anticipation, the Washington Wizards ended the 2016 free agent bonanza with a new coach and a new front line player. Unfortunately, Scott Brooks and Kevin Durant aren’t a package deal, so the Wiz settled for . . . Ian Mahinmi.

They didn’t even get a meeting with Durant even though the dude is from D.C. The Brooks signing was just another in a long series of moves that were meant to entice Durant to return home to help Washington finally realize its potential as a great basketball market; as luck would have it, Durant wanted no part of that.

Still, they held on to Randy Wittman for two seasons too long in order to replace him with someone who appealed to KD and are now stuck with Brooks (the coach the Thunder got rid of in anticipation of Durant’s free agency).

Ernie Grunfeld stacked the roster with a weird mish mash of raw maybe-talent and middle of the road, over priced known quantities in an effort to win immediately. After an encouraging playoff appearance in the 2014-15 season, the team took a huge step back last year as they tried to catch up to the pace-and-space reality of today’s game with mixed results.

John Wall is a legit NBA superstar and Bradley Beal is a good second fiddle when healthy. Beyond that, everything is kind of a mess. Otto Porter and Kelly Oubre are redundant, as are Mahinmi and Marcin Gortat. Markieff Morris still has to prove he can be consistently helpful, as does Trey Burke. The list goes on.

This is a team that looked to be on the cusp of breaking into the upper echelon of the Eastern Conference. That’s not saying much, sure, but it’s still light years away from .500 and a lottery pick (that it lost in the Morris trade anyways).

How did we get here?

Apr 8, 2016; Auburn Hills, MI, USA; Washington Wizards guard Bradley Beal (3) sits on the bench and looks down during the third quarter against the Detroit Pistons at The Palace of Auburn Hills. Pistons win 112-99. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

Ernie Grunfeld

Grunfeld is not a good general manager at this point in his career. Unless you can land a top three player in free agency, the best way to build a team in the NBA remains through the draft; cynical, delusional outliers aside. Grunfeld has bucked that trend.

Not all that surprising when your draft record reads the way his does: Otto Porter at number three, Jan Vesely at No. 6, Nick Young and JaVale McGee in the first round. The only reason they ended up with Wall is because they made the leap from the fifth slot to the first in the 2010 lottery drawing and he was going first no matter who drew the first pick.

They traded Emeka Okafor and a first round pick for Marcin Gortat. They traded Kris Humphries and a first rounder for Markieff Morris last year. They made a good move in stealing Jordan Clarkson in the second round then traded him to Los Angeles for cash.

Jun 28, 2013; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Wizards rookie Otto Porter Jr. (center), general manager Ernie Grunfeld (right) and head coach Randy Whitman (left) pose for a picture after a press conference to introduce Porter after being drafted with the third pick in the first round of the 2013 NBA Draft at Verizon Center . Mandatory Credit: Rafael Suanes-USA TODAY Sports

Grunfeld has been acquiring players as if his team were only one or two small pieces away from being a true title contender. They aren’t. The problem, then, is that the roster is split between young guys that don’t get enough run and old guys whose usefulness window is quickly closing wallowing away on a .500 team.

John Wall’s ascendancy was bogged down by having to play at a glacial pace with Nick Young, Andray Blatche, Jordan Crawford, Drew Gooden, etc. Now that he has established himself as one of the top point guards in the league, he’s playing with an overstuffed, aging front line, a backcourt mate that’s constantly hurt, and a handful of unproven players around his age. Not ideal.

Mar 30, 2016; Sacramento, CA, USA; Washington Wizards head coach Randy Wittman on the sideline against the Sacramento Kings during the first quarter at Sleep Train Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Randy Wittman

Between the wonky roster and his own coaching, Wittman never really instilled a concrete identity in Washington. He talked big about being a defense-first team that could grind out wins. That actually worked in the 2013 and 2014 seasons, when Washington finished sixth and fifth in defensive efficiency, respectively. The defense fell all the way to thirteenth last season as the coaching staff revamped the offense.

That revamp was long overdue. Wittman’s neolithic offense – until the 2014 playoffs wherein they played Paul Pierce at the four and discovered the three point line–was geared to take what the defense gave it. In other words, they shot a lot of eighteen footers. On purpose. Out of half court sets.

When they finally upped the pace last year the defense cratered because outside of Wall and Beal, everyone that got major minutes were old, slow, or both. Oh, and the offense wasn’t very good either: they finished fifth in pace but eighteenth in efficiency. That indicates a team that tried its damndest to push the ball but had no idea how to.

We could go on, but Wittman’s .406 career winning percentage can speak the rest for itself.

Oct 4, 2016; Washington, DC, USA; Miami Heat forward Derrick Williams (22) dribbles the ball as Washington Wizards forward Markieff Morris (5) defends in the second quarter quarter at Verizon Center. the Heat won 106-95. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

2016-17

On paper, Scott Brooks is a major step up from Wittman. He took a raw Thunder team to the finals way ahead of schedule, he has a .620 career winning percentage, and he’s proven that he can manage two big time players in the locker room. He also was one of the most criticized coaches in the league because of the way he handled rotations and never seemed to have much of a game plan beyond rolling the ball out and letting KD and Russell Westbrook do KD and Russell Westbrook type things.

Wittman’s system was similar, but he didn’t have Russ and Durant as Brooks did. Wall, like Westbrook is freakishly athletic, an underrated passer, an inconsistent shooter, and is best suited to play a ball dominant one spot. Unlike Westbrook, he doesn’t have Kevin Durant flanking him, and the Thunder were about a .500 team when Westbrook was running the show without KD.

Dec 2, 2014; New Orleans, LA, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder head coach Scott Brooks (L) talks with forward Kevin Durant (35) during the second quarter against the New Orleans Pelicans at the Smoothie King Center. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

All of that is bad news for Wizards fans hoping the acquisition of Brooks would mean a streamlined offense and a return to tenacious defense. Brooks’ Thunder teams were consistently in the top half of the league in defensive efficency, but his defensive system wasn’t so much a system as it was a result of having a young, athletic roster that could run all day.

He has a hell of a lot of less athleticism to work with in D.C., especially on the front line.

Serge Ibaka‘s quickness and versatility played a big part in allowing Westbrook to wreak havoc around the perimeter for the Thunder. Gortat and Mahinimi can protect the rim, but they struggle out past the paint. Bradley Beal had a hard time sticking with guys last year; his defensive box plus/minus was -1.6 last year, well below the league average. Markieff Morris is probably the only guy who’s quick enough to defend the pick and roll with Wall on the perimeter (Wall is looking to play fewer minutes this season, but I don’t really see that happening).

The bench unit, with Trey Burke, Mahinmi, Marcus Thornton, Kelly Oubre, and Jason Smith could be blindingly awful on defense.

The Offense

The offense will probably still be a mess. Wall will get his, but after that it gets cloudy. Marcin Gortat and Markieff Morris will play a lot of minutes together, which restricts what Washington can do. They’re both okay mid range shooters and Gortat is a good passer for his position, but in today’s NBA it’s really hard to win with two starters that are best when they’re in the post or at the elbow. Add to that the fact that Wall is still an iffy three point shooter, and it becomes pretty clear that this team is going to have to make its money in the mid range. Not ideal.

More from Sir Charles In Charge

Wall can pick-and-roll all he wants with the big men, but without a consistent three point threat it’s going to be difficult to generate points out of those sets. Speaking of three point threats . . . Bradley Beal is already hurt. When he’s healthy he hits about 40 percent of his threes, a respectable number, to be sure.

The problem is that Beal can’t consistently create his own shot or get to the rim by himself, so most his energy on offense is spent finding off-ball screens to get back out beyond twenty five feet once he gets run off the three point line (there are exceptions to this; Beal has shown that he can square up and beat his defender one on one, but inexplicably only does so in the playoffs).

Also regarding Beal: I’m not one to get too hung up on personality and chemistry issues, but holy hell does it look like John Wall and Bradley Beal hate each other. The Wizards gave Beal a new max contract this offseason (a move that was pretty much unavoidable. Max players are determined by the market, not by ability) that dwarfs Wall’s deal.

In response, it seems, Wall reasserted himself as the top dog in a . . . let’s say “very frank” interview with CSN. Here are some choice quotations:

“Guys got to know their role. I think that’s the key. I think with coach Brooks coming in he’s going to hold everybody accountable starting with me. Just make sure everybody know what their role is. If everybody buys into their role, we’ll be fine.

And…

I want it all to be on me. At the same time I want him to be right there with me. [Beal]’s my sidekick. I’m A. He’s A-1. He’s right there . . . That’s something we got to do on the first day of training camp. We have to go in there and understand and get on the same page.

Finally, here’s the money quote:

I think a lot of times we have a tendency to dislike each other on the court. … We got to be able to put that to the side.

You never want to hear that from your franchise player, even more so when he’s talking about the highest paid player on the team. Oh yeah, and the Wiz are paying Ian Mahinmi 200k more this season than they are Wall. I sense major off court issues on the horizon in D.C.

Now, where were we?

Markieff Morris provides a pretty consistent mid range jumper and good defense out to about fifteen feet, things the Wizards already have in his fellow front courters. Otto Porter has shown a whole lot of nothing on the offensive side of the court. Kelly Oubre looks like a promising prospect, but won’t get as much playing time as he needs because Porter is a very similar player and he needs minutes himself. Brooks also seems to have a habit of stubbornly playing veterans instead of focusing on getting his young guys some run. Marcus Thornton is also here for some reason.

Feb 2, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Rockets forward Marcus Thornton (10) reacts after making a basket during the fourth quarter against the Miami Heat at Toyota Center. The Rockets won 115-102. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

All of that is to say that this is a team with one truly fantastic player, a good but oft-injured player, a collection of decent players that were hastily tacked on to the roster, and some other guys. The new coach has a good track record if you don’t consider it in any sort of context and may actually be really similar to the old coach.

The general manager has assembled a roster of mismatched pieces. As it stands now, this just isn’t a very good team, but they do have the benefit of playing in the Eastern Conference, so there’s that.

Hopefully Brooks can buck some of his more frustrating habits from his time in OKC and find a way to utilize Wall’s athleticism by going small and maybe putting. Morris at the five spot for long stretches. Hopefully Bradley Beal has a healthy season.

Hopefully Wall can somehow get over the fact that Beal and Mahinmi are both being paid more than he is this season. Hopefully Ernie Grunfeld doesn’t trade away any more draft picks for iffy midseason acquisitions. Hopefully Otto Porter and Kelly Oubre show something on offense. Hopefully Marcin Gortat isn’t old for a big man all of the sudden.

That’s a lot of hopefully’s. Like, another .500 season’s worth of hopefully’s.

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