National Basketball Association

Trail Blazers: Wall Over Lillard?

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Damian Lillard ranks behind fellow point guard John Wall in Sports Illustrated’s Top 100 NBA Players. RCP looks at the numbers to see if S.I. got it right.

The Trail Blazers are used to not getting the proper amount of respect from large media outlets, but Damian Lillard‘s recent ranking in Sports Illustrated’s Top 100 players of 2017 should raise some eyebrows. Portland’s star is slotted four positions behind the next point guard, which happens to be Washington’s John Wall. The Wizards’ guard is certainly worthy of a top spot, but we are suggesting that Lillard should be ranked above the former Kentucky phenom whose team missed out on the postseason.

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Both players are at the top of their class when it comes to point guards, which is on display in their impressive numbers. Most categories are separated by a thin margin, but Lillard’s shooting numbers stand out. Lillard shoots nearly ten percentage points better than Wall at the free throw line, and five percentage points higher from beyond the arc. This all adds up to Portland’s star averaging 21.4 PPG over the course of his career compared to his Wizards counter-part – who only has averaged 18.0 PPG.

Lillard’s detractors find their ammo on the defensive side of ball, and the stats reinforce that narrative. Wall averages nearly two steals per game (1.7), which puts him clearly out in front of Lillard. In terms of defensive win shares, Wall is the clear leader with an impressive 17.6 rating (ten wins clear of Lillard’s 7.3 rating).

A clear distinction hasn’t been made between the two players, and ball distribution doesn’t advance either side of the argument nearly as well as one would hope. Wall’s assist numbers are better, but they are countered by Lillard’s low turnover rate.

Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (0) dribbles around Washington Wizards guard John Wall (2). Mandatory Credit: Craig Mitchelldyer-USA TODAY Sports

With both players in a statistical deadlock, we now turn to postseason performances to find a distinction. Despite having a head-start in the NBA, Wall has only played in 18 playoff games. His numbers take a significant dip across the board in the spring, but some of that can be attributed to increased game planning to stop him.

Lillard’s postseason numbers tell a different story. While some of his efficiency drops, his scoring average increases in the playoffs. Lillard did have the advantage of playing alongside LaMarcus Aldridge in two of those runs, but the offense usually starts with the point guard. The most impressive part of Lillard’s postseason record is the fact that he has qualified for the playoffs in all but one of his professional seasons.

If you remove statistics – you are left with one player who has a proven playoff history and one who plays better defense than the other. The argument can certainly be made about how damaging Lillard’s defensive limitations are, but you can’t argue with his results. In a situation this close it is tough to justify ranking a player watching the playoffs on television over a player that was participating in them.

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