Mar 19, 2017; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Raptors guard DeMar DeRozan (10) controls the ball as Indiana Pacers guard Jeff Teague (44) defends during the third quarter in a game at Air Canada Centre. The Toronto Raptors won 116-91. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports
In the past, the definition of an elite NBA player had a great deal to do with offensive production. With more sophisticated metrics now available, we can see that some big-time scorers do not help their teams win games.
Scoring has always been the flashiest part of sports, and that is certainly the case where NBA basketball is concerned.
Fans and media are typically mesmerized by individual players who can light up the scoreboard, and when box score statistics were considered the measure of a great player, no one received more hype than those who could post huge scoring numbers.
As NBA analytics became more advanced, questions about high-scoring players began to arise — could it be that some of the players who are thought of as superstars are not as effective as we previously thought?
Can the performance of a highly-productive scorer actually be counter to winning basketball?
In the modern age of the NBA, we have been able to confirm in a tangible way that there are many nuances to what goes into winning, and offensive prowess is just one of many.
Chances are if a player excels at "filling it up" but does little else to contribute to his team's success, he ultimately may not be helping his team at all.
We are going to examine the top five scorers in the NBA this season who are actually dragging their teams down. The way we are going to define how effective a player is at contributing to winning is by utilizing each player's on court/off court numbers.
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This statistic is calculated by looking at a team's scoring margin against their opponents while a player is in the game, then doing that same calculation while that particular player is on the bench.
Particularly when there is a great deal of data available (teams have played roughly 70 games each at this point in the season), patterns start to emerge that show what impact a player actually has on his team — good or bad.
Scoring averages will be extracted from NBA.com, while on court/off court statistics will be supplied courtesy of 82games.com. We will also discuss a metric called NBA Real Plus-Minus, which is one of the best measures we have to rate the defense of individual players (per ESPN).
We've identified five players, all averaging 18.9 points per game or above, who have a negative on court/off court value for the entire 2016-17 season to date.
Let's take a look at these players and try to make some sense of why in these instances, a single player scoring in bunches isn't translating into team victories.
Jan 28, 2017; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves guard Zach LaVine (8) dribbles in the first quarter against the Brooklyn Nets guard Sean Kilpatrick (6) at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
5. Zach LaVine, Minnesota Timberwolves
Points Per Game: 18.9, On Court/Off Court: -7.4
Two-time NBA Slam Dunk Champion Zach LaVine has made a lot of highlight reels during his career, and he's also now become a consistently productive scorer in the NBA. However, his net plus-minus of minus-7.4 is very poor.
One of the reasons for this counter-intuitive result is LaVine's performance on the defensive end of the floor. Per ESPN's NBA Real Plus-Minus stats, LaVine is ranked as the 88th-best defensive player at his position — out of 89 total players.
LaVine has been out for the season since early February with a torn ACL, but he played in 47 games prior to the injury, so we have a large enough sample size for his statistics to have meaning.
The Timberwolves have played without LaVine for about seven weeks and they have settled in and performed better than they did when Zach LaVine was active.
It is one thing for a team to rally and pick up the slack for a short period of time when one of their top players goes down, but Minnesota has been successfully doing that since prior to the NBA All-Star break. Bottom line: the Wolves have been a more productive unit without LaVine this season.
Feb 3, 2017; Denver, CO, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Jabari Parker (12) shoots the ball over Denver Nuggets forward Kenneth Faried (35) during the first half at Pepsi Center. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports
4. Jabari Parker, Milwaukee Bucks
Points Per Game: 20.1, On Court/Off Court: -6.3
Jabari Parker was the second overall pick in the 2014 NBA Draft and because of his ability to score, he seems destined to live up to that lofty draft position.
However, those numbers are deceiving in terms of Parker's true contribution to the Bucks' cause, as evidenced by his minus-6.3 net plus-minus rating.
Once again, defense seems to be the primary problem here, given that Jabari Parker is ranked dead last in Real Plus-Minus out of 94 power forwards currently playing in the NBA.
Simply put, if a player scores well on one end, but gives up even more on the other, he isn't truly an asset to his team.
Parker, like Zach LaVine, is out for the season — coincidentally with the same injury and it happened less than a week after LaVine went down. Jabari Parker logged minutes in 51 games prior to his injury, so the sample size is acceptable.
The parallels between their situations are interesting. If a player is truly of great value to their team, as time goes on that team will eventually begin to struggle without that player on the court.
However, the Bucks are still significantly better six weeks after Parker's knee injury than they were when he was healthy — not a good sign if Parker is considered a big part of Milwaukee's future.
Mar 16, 2017; Atlanta, GA, USA; Memphis Grizzlies center Marc Gasol (33) reacts after a three point basket against the Atlanta Hawks in the second quarter at Philips Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
3. Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies
Points Per Game: 20.1, On Court/Off Court: -0.6
Many think of Marc Gasol as one of the best centers in the league, but his on court/off court statistics don't bear that out. Gasol is rated as a below-average defender (No. 45 out of 68 NBA centers), but that may or may not be all that is going into his negative net plus-minus result.
On court/off court statistics by nature take everything into account that a player does on the floor, even subtle intangibles such as how much energy his presence gives to his teammates while he is in the game.
Gasol's relatively weak rebounding could be at issue, and that combined with his defensive struggles are likely enough to explain his negative plus-minus for the season.
Marc Gasol is in the second year of a five-year, $113 million contract with the Grizzlies and that is a heavy investment for a player who isn't currently making a tangible contribution to the team's success.
Gasol was mentioned in a few trade rumors prior to the February deadline; could it be that Memphis' front office is aware they are not getting a good return on Gasol's max contract?
Mar 16, 2017; New York, NY, USA; New York Knicks forward Carmelo Anthony (7) drives against Brooklyn Nets guard Jeremy Lin (7) during the third quarter at Madison Square Garden. Brooklyn Nets won 121-110. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports
2. Carmelo Anthony, New York Knicks
Points Per Game: 22.8, On Court/Off Court: -4.2
Carmelo Anthony haters rejoice! Anthony has gained a reputation over his NBA career as a guy who can post numbers, but doesn't seem to help his team win — and at least for the purposes of this analysis, that reputation is earned.
Carmelo is having another season of statistical triumph, but the Knicks are going nowhere fast as a team.
Look no further than Anthony's defensive rating, which places him 77th out of 81 total small forwards.
Carmelo is known as a player who basically rests on defense and once again, the advanced metrics agree with what fans and media see when they watch the 10-time NBA All-Star on the court.
According to multiple reports, the New York Knicks were shopping Anthony before the NBA trade deadline, despite his individual productivity.
Carmelo will be 33 years old in May and given his exorbitant contract, the Knicks may be looking toward a future without the scoring machine from Syracuse University.
Teams are becoming more aware of advanced statistics with each passing year, and it is likely no secret to the Knicks that they perform better when Anthony is on the bench. If New York tries to trade Carmelo this summer, it will be a hard sell for Phil Jackson and the Knicks.
Mar 17, 2017; Auburn Hills, MI, USA; Toronto Raptors guard DeMar DeRozan (10) takes a shot over Detroit Pistons forward Tobias Harris (34) during the first quarter at The Palace of Auburn Hills. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
1. DeMar DeRozan, Toronto Raptors
Points Per Game: 26.8, On Court/Off Court: -3.5
DeMar DeRozan is considered among the elite players in the league, but he is only elite in terms of aggregate scoring. While he is near the top of the NBA in points per game average, he is ranked No. 88 defensively among 98 players at his position.
Not many years ago, it would have been unthinkable to even suggest a team could be better off with a player averaging about 27 points per contest sitting on the bench, but it's a fact in DeRozan's case.
His weak presence on defense is certainly a huge contributing factor, but there may be some other things to consider. DeRozan has never been a good three-point shooter (28 percent for his career), which is a major deficiency in today's NBA.
Is he inefficient offensively? Does he fail to make his teammates better? Probably both. DeRozan takes the bulk of his shots from midrange, but his 46 percent field goal accuracy indicates that he isn't an efficient scorer from that distance.
DeRozan's assist totals have risen in recent years, but so has his propensity for turnovers: he is not the type of player who consistently succeeds at making plays for teammates.
In the end, one thing is for certain: DeMar DeRozan is the highest-scoring player in the NBA this season whose team performs better when he is not on the court.
