National Basketball Association

Philadelphia 76ers: How Close Is The Vegas Over/Under Line?

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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It looks like Las Vegas is buying high on the Philadelphia 76ers going into 2016-17. Is the Westgate SuperBook too high on Ben Simmons and company?

What a difference an offseason makes for the Philadelphia 76ers. Just months after narrowly missing a single-digit winning season and going 10-72, the Westgate SuperBook has released their NBA win total over/unders and the Sixers have themselves a charitable total.

The SuperBook win totals are largely uncontroversial, with some inoffensive slam dunks like 66.5 for the Golden State Warriors and 56.5 for both the Cleveland Cavaliers and San Antonio Spurs. On the low end, the Brooklyn Nets check in at 20.5 wins.

Vegas feels strongly about this Sixers team though, or at least thinks bettors will be high on them.

The SuperBook has the Sixers with the fourth-lowest win total at 27.5. That number of wins might not turn heads in most cities, but that’s a 17- (or 18-) win improvement over 2015-16. A 275 percent improvement. That’s remarkable progress for any team and Sixers fans would be overjoyed with such a total.

The question remains, how much validity is there to this projection?

Remember, these lines are set with bettors in mind, with the goal of placing a line so sharp that bettors are equally split on both sides of the line and the house profits on the juice. Essentially, Vegas is betting that the public will decide this is a good line, and the number will shift based on bettor interest until it does in fact become a good line.

Case in point, the line on the Warriors has changed since the day after Kevin Durant signed with the Dubs.

Via ESPN:

The day after Kevin Durant signed with the Warriors, the SuperBook opened the over/under on Golden State’s season win total at 68.5. It is the highest win total oddsmaker Jeff Sherman has ever posted prior to the season and attracted early money on the under from sharp bettors.
“Basically, the sharps are liking the under [on Golden State] and the public is liking the over,” Sherman said.

Setting aside public influence on the numbers, let’s ask how likely the Sixers are to finish with roughly 27.5 wins.

The 10-win Sixers were led in scoring by Jahlil Okafor with 17.5 points per game. He had a troubled rookie season, playing just 53 thanks to injuries and a two-game suspension. Okafor was also the most efficient scorer of all regular contributors, recording a 50.9 effective field goal percentage.

They were led in assists by point guard Ish Smith, who performed well in the 50 games he played for the Philadelphia 76ers after coming over from the New Orleans Pelicans. Smith recorded seven assists per game, which was impressive on a roster that couldn’t dependably hit shots (the Sixers had the league’s fifth-worst effective field goal percentage at 48.7 percent, per NBA.com).

This season, the Sixers have a different look at the top end of the roster.

Rookie Ben Simmons steps right in and is almost certainly the best player on the roster by a fair margin. Rookie (technically) big man Joel Embiid will finally hit the floor for the Sixers, barring any further unfortunate developments.

Okafor or Nerlens Noel is almost certain to be moved for some kind of asset before the trade deadline. That’s going to serve to unclog the frontcourt in the immediate future. Ask the 2013-14 Detroit Pistons how much fun it is to have three redundant big men getting heavy minutes in your frontcourt.

Apparently Dario Saric finally got a passport and came over to the United States to join the Sixers. The young roster will finally have a veteran presence in the form of Jerryd Bayless. The lineup has been built up with guys like Sergio Rodriguez and Gerald Henderson, and the Sixers had a haul in the draft in the form of consensus top pick Ben Simmons and Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot.

Bringing all these new elements into the fold, do the Sixers have a chance to challenge for that lofty 27.5 win total?

Absolutely not. If you’re a betting man or woman, take the under before the public pounds that number to something a bit more realistic in the 20-win range.