National Basketball Association

Opinion: Is Arron Afflalo Worth the Dollars?

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 3:49 p.m. ET

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Dec 7, 2015; New York, NY, USA; New York Knicks guard Arron Afflalo (4) works the ball around Dallas Mavericks guard Deron Williams (8) during the third quarter at Madison Square Garden. Dallas Mavericks won 104-97. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports

The Sacramento Kings signed Arron Afflalo this offseason to a contract of 2 years and $25 million. This article examines Afflalo’s on-court game to see if the Kings spent wisely.

On July 2nd, 2016, the Sacramento Kings and free agent Arron Afflalo agreed to a contract of 2 years and $25 million. Afflalo is a veteran shooting guard or small forward. He is entering his 10th NBA season and playing for his 6th NBA franchise. Below is a highlight video from the 2014-2015 NBA season to give you a glimpse at Afflalo’s on-court ability.

Let us now examine Arron Afflalo’s game to see if the Kings spent wisely in free agency.

Feb 20, 2016; Minneapolis, MN, USA; New York Knicks guard Arron Afflalo (4) shoots over Minnesota Timberwolves forward Shabazz Muhammad (15) during the second quarter at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

Offensive Skills and Production

First, let us examine Arron Afflalo’s traditional offensive statistics. Last season, Afflalo played for the New York Knicks and earned 33.4 minutes per game. In those hefty minutes, he produced 1.3 3’s, 0.3 offensive rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.2 turnovers, and 12.8 points per game on 44.3% from the field and 84.0% from the line.

For his career, he averages 28.7 minutes per game, while producing 1.2 3’s, 0.5 offensive boards, 2.0 assists, 1.2 turnovers, and 11.6 points on 45.2% from the field and 82.0% from the free throw line.

My colleague Rafe Wong wrote a great piece examining Mister Afflalo’s shot selection and where he takes his best shot from on the court. It can be found here if you care to read more about that topic.

I just want to mention a few final notes about Arron Afflalo’s offensive game. He is a career 38.5% shooter from beyond the 3 point line. If you look at just corner 3 pointers, he shoots 42.4% for his career, but only takes 44.3% of his 3 point shots from the corner. He fills a big need for the Kings in 3 point production and efficiency. He can, also, create a little offense and has the experience to jell into any offensive system. Overall, he is a great 3 point shooter and solid offensive contributor.

Mar 5, 2016; New York, NY, USA; Detroit Pistons guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (5) drives to the basket past New York Knicks guard Arron Afflalo (4) during the first half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports

Defensive Skills and Production

Arron Afflalo’s traditional defensive stats are not eye-popping, to say the least. Last season, he averaged 3.4 defensive rebounds, 0.4 steals, and 0.1 blocks per game in 33.4 minutes a contest.

For his career, he averages 2.6 defensive rebounds, 0.5 steals, and 0.2 blocks per game in 28.7 minutes per game. Clearly, Afflalo does not produce big traditional defensive stats for his career.

Let us examine Arron Afflalo’s on-ball defense to see how he stacks up. Below is Afflalo’s career defensive shot courtesy of NBASavant.com to help illustrate Afflalo’s on-ball defending.

Arron Afflalo’s defensive shot chart 2010-Present courtesy of https://t.co/bs288NV4q7 pic.twitter.com/PxDpJI9psD

— A Royal Pain (@ARoyalPain) September 29, 2016

As you can see, Afflalo has struggled to defend shots from every area on the court except right corner 3 pointers. This is especially concerning for the Kings. We all know about the team’s defensive struggles a season ago and now to sign a player who is expected to be your starting two guard who can’t produce traditional defensive stats or guard on the ball is definitely worrisome.

Feb 20, 2016; Minneapolis, MN, USA; New York Knicks guard Arron Afflalo (4) against the Minnesota Timberwolves at Target Center. The Knicks defeated the Timberwolves 103-95. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

Advanced Metrics

Let us take a deep dive into Afflalo’s box score plus/minus metric to see how he rated last season. Last season, Afflalo produced negative 0.6 offensive and negative 1.8 defensive box score plus/minus. That resulted in value over replacement player (VORP) of negative 0.2.

For his career, Afflalo averages a positive 0.5 offensive box score plus/minus and a negative 1.3 defensive box score plus/minus. His career VORP (calculated by adding up the VORP from each of his 9 NBA seasons) is positive 5.8.

Let us examine win shares to give us an alternative look at last season’s play from Mister Afflalo. He earned offensive win shares of positive 1.8 and defensive win shares of positive 0.9. His win shares per 48 minutes metric rated at 0.055, well below league average of 0.100.

For his career, Afflalo has produced cumulative offensive win shares of positive 22.8 and cumulative defensive win shares of 9.1. His career win shares per 48 minutes rates at 0.083. All stats and advanced metrics courtesy of Basketball-Reference.

The advanced metrics are not kind to Arron Afflalo. He rates as a better offensive player than defensive player. He rated both below league average and below replacement level last season for the New York Knicks. For his career, he rates as a below league average player, but more valuable than a replacement player. Here is to hoping he can play better for the Kings this season and get back in the good graces of the advanced metrics.

Jan 26, 2016; New York, NY, USA; New York Knicks shooting guard Arron Afflalo (4) reacts after being called for an offensive foul during the fourth quarter against the Oklahoma City Thunder at Madison Square Garden. The Thunder defeated the Knicks 128-122 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Injuries

It is time to examine Mister Afflalo’s health history because he cannot produce for the Kings if he is not healthy enough to suit up. Afflalo averages 72 games played in his 9 NBA seasons. That is a pretty substantial number over 9 years. He played a career-high all 82 games in 2009-2010 and a career-low 62 games in 2011-2012.

According to Fox Sports, he has suffered seven injuries or ailments since December 2013. The good news is no injury appears on there more than once and nothing looks serious going forward. Afflalo turns 31 years young next month, so it is worth monitoring the injuries as he ages.

Afflalo has a current clean bill of health and I expect him to be ready to suit up opening night. I am hopeful he can repeat his 2009-2010 season and play all 82.

Summary

Let us review what we learned about Mister Afflalo so far. He agreed to sign a 2-year contract worth $25 million with the Kings during free agency. On offense, he is a great 3 point shooter and solid contributor overall. On defense, he lacks traditional stats and struggles with on-ball defense. The advanced metrics for his career rate him as below league average player, but more valuable than a replacement player. He has no injury history to worry about, but he is turning 31 years old next month.

So is Afflalo worth 2 years and $25 million to the Sacramento Kings?