Mar 20, 2016; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Bucks center Greg Monroe (15) dribbles the ball as Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert (27) defends during the third quarter at BMO Harris Bradley Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
The Milwaukee Bucks have now lost eight of their last nine games, and will need to defeat a tough Utah Jazz squad to prevent their current losing streak from extending to four games.
The Milwaukee Bucks need a win in a bad way. Milwaukee is now 21-26 after being 20-18 back on January 13. The Bucks had a promising stretch of their season before this losing streak, but now the team is just half a game ahead of the Detroit Pistons.
The Bucks are ninth in the East after eyeing up a shot at a homecourt seed a few weeks ago. All hope is not lost–Milwaukee is a mere two games away from the seventh seed, currently occupied by the imploding Chicago Bulls.
For any advancement to happen though, the Bucks need to start winning games. Their next chance to do so will be on Wednesday night, when Milwaukee takes on the Utah Jazz in Utah. The Jazz are good this season, in part thanks to some crucial player additions this summer.
George Hill, Joe Johnson and Boris Diaw have all brought both experience and talent to Utah, and the team has been better for it. Rudy Gobert and Gordon Hayward have been fantastic as Jazzmen too, helping the Jazz to their current 30-19 record.
Unsurprisingly, Utah’s defense has been stout all season. The Jazz sport the NBA’s second-best defense, in large part thanks to Gobert manning the middle in Utah. Milwaukee will need to be effective on offense to score enough buckets to beat the Jazz on Wednesday.
To find out how either team can win, we’ll go through major keys for both the Jazz and the Bucks. A member of the Jazz to watch will also be identified, and finally predictions on the final score will be made.
Mar 20, 2016; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Utah Jazz forward Gordon Hayward (20) and Milwaukee Bucks forward John Henson (31) reach for the loose ball during the second quarter at BMO Harris Bradley Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Major Key For Milwaukee: Don’t Play Utah’s Game
The Utah Jazz play basketball at iceberg speed. Utah is last in the NBA in pace, and although the Bucks aren’t exactly speedsters nobody plays quite as slow as the Jazz. That slow pace combined with Utah’s stout defense means the scores are often low when the Jazz play.
Utah has held the opposition to under 90 points a whopping 17 times this season. The Bucks, for the sake of comparison, have done that three times. The Jazz love grinding their opponents down and preventing them from scoring enough to overcome Utah’s 14th-ranked offensive attack.
The Bucks will have to find ways to get past Gobert and score on Wednesday if they want any chance of winning. When Utah keeps the score low, wins tend to follow. The Jazz are 14-3 in games where they allow less than 90 points.
To make scoring totals even more important, the Bucks tend to struggle mightily when they don’t score a ton. Milwaukee is 0-4 when the team scores under 90 points, 3-12 when the team scores less than 100 points and somehow 8-23 when the team scores under 110 points.
The Bucks stink when they can’t score a ton of points. The Jazz are great when their matchup doesn’t score a ton of points. A low scoring total would only be good for one team on Wednesday, and it’s not Milwaukee.
Jan 2, 2016; Salt Lake City, UT, USA; Utah Jazz guard Rodney Hood (5) shoots a free throw during overtime against the Memphis Grizzlies at Vivint Smart Home Arena. The Jazz won 92-87 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports
Major Key For Utah: Get To The (Free Throw) Line
This works for any team playing the Bucks, and really for any team playing any team, but aside from choking Milwaukee’s offense the Jazz can get an edge on Wednesday by getting to the free throw line often.
Utah’s offense is at its most potent when the Jazz get to the foul line often. Utah is 13-1 when the team makes 20 or more free throws in a game thus far this season, and ten of the Jazz 26 100-point games have come when the team makes at least that many foul shots.
Even though there are some talented bucket-getters in Utah, this team has trouble scoring in bunches, partly because of the slow pace this team operates at. As good as Utah is when their opponents don’t score much, the Jazz are also dangerous when they can score a lot of points.
In games where the Jazz score at least 105 points, the team is 15-1. This team doesn’t bring a potent scoring attack often, but in games when the Jazz do manage to bring the fire they tend to come away with big wins.
Jan 7, 2017; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert (27) during a game between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Utah Jazz at Target Center. The Jazz defeated the Timberwolves 94-92. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports
Player To Watch: Rudy Gobert
It was a tough decision to make between Rudy Gobert and Gordon Hayward to feature as the player to watch for this game, but Gobert is definitely the biggest reason for Utah’s success this year.
The Jazz are good because they’re such a stout team defensively, and that begins and ends with Gobert. He’s averaging 12.8 points, 12.5 rebounds and 2.6 blocks per game while nailing a super-efficient 65.8 percent of his field goals.
The rebounds and blocks speak to what Gobert does on defense, but they don’t tell the whole story. He’s one of the best few defenders in the NBA, full-stop. Kawhi Leonard and Draymond Green might get more shine for their defense, but Gobert is certainly on their level.
He’s first in the NBA in defensive rating, first in defensive win shares and third in defensive box plus/minus. He’s held opponents to 47.3 percent shooting within six feet of the rim, good enough for fifth among all NBA players. No other players defending at least seven field goals per game in that range holds opponents to as low of a percentage as Gobert does.
Feb 5, 2016; Salt Lake City, UT, USA; Milwaukee Bucks center Greg Monroe (15) defends against Utah Jazz forward Derrick Favors (15) during the second half at Vivint Smart Home Arena. The Jazz won 84-81. Mandatory Credit: Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports
Finale
The Milwaukee Bucks need to win a game soon. A fully-healthy Utah Jazz team is hardly the ideal opponent for a game that needs to be won, but unfortunately for the Bucks they can’t do much about the teams they’re matched up against.
What Milwaukee can do is come out and play the right kind of basketball. The Bucks are averaging 1.5 less assists per game over this losing streak than they did over the first 38 games of the season.
That number isn’t huge, but it is indicative of the Bucks playing less pass-happy basketball lately. More energy and more passing could help Milwaukee get back to winning ways.
Predictions and Leaderboard:
Lukas Harkins: Bucks by 4 — 27-20, 524 point differential
Rohan Katti: Jazz by 8 — 27-20, 572 point differential
Adam Coffman: Jazz by 9 — 26-21, 554 point differential
Adam McGee: Jazz by 12 — 26-21, 614 point differential
Tom Pheister: Jazz by 6 — 25-22, 619 point differential
Ti Windisch: Jazz by 7 — 24-23, 568 point differential
Tim Wray: Jazz by 10 — 23-23, 557 point differential
Jordan Treske: Jazz by 15 — 23-24, 651 point differential
The game is on Wednesday night at 8:00 p.m. and will be televised on Fox Sports Wisconsin.
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