In this week’s edition of the Best and Worst, we look at two aspects of the center position, the changing schedule, and a visit from the Big Ticket.
Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to the Milwaukee Bucks’ Best and Worst, a semi-regular column that will look back on some of the most encouraging and discouraging events we’ve seen in recent games.
We will focus on more overarching trends and statistical positives and negatives than simple game-by-game analysis. The hope here is that by taking a step back, we can avoid short-term overreaction and focus on more encompassing issues.
The Bucks have been busy since we last met, going 1-3, a stretch that included a solid win over the Portland Trail Blazers as well as losses to the Atlanta Hawks, Washington Wizards, and Toronto Raptors.
Bucks fans have undergone a flurry of emotions over this course of action, experiencing the highs and lows of a growing team over a short period of time. What have we seen, and maybe more importantly, what does it mean?
Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Best: Greg Monroe is Back (Should he Start?)
As confounding as Miles Plumlee and John Henson have been (more on that later), Greg Monroe has been a rather surprising bright spot. Although he is averaging a career-low in minutes, points, and rebounds per game, Monroe has made the most of his limited minutes, just as many suspected he would. In addition to posting the best offensive and defensive ratings on the team, he ranks 25th in the entire league.
With the other Bucks’ big men struggling, many who just months ago were clamoring for Moose to be dealt for pennies on the dollar are now advocating for the Bucks to start him in place of John Henson.
Despite his flaws, Monroe is undoubtedly a talented post scorer, and the anticipation was that he would be able to feast upon opposing bench units from his own sixth man position.
That is exactly what he’s done so far, averaging 17.4 points per 36 minutes along with visibly improved hustle and effort that has won back the hearts of the Bucks’ populous.
Because this type of offensive output was more or less expected in Moose’s new role, his defense will be what’s most likely to vault him back into the starting lineup, especially as John Henson continues to be nothing more than mediocre.
Whether or not Monroe should reclaim his previous starting gig is another issue entirely.
He’s clearly been the Bucks’ best center to this point, but (1) we’ve seen how a Giannis-Jabari-Monroe trio becomes bogged down on offense, and (2) he likely does not factor into the team’s plans beyond this season.
The final decision will be up to the coaching staff to make, but at the least, Monroe’s play should be a bright spot amid the Bucks’ frontcourt.
Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
Best: KG Comes to MKE
NBA practices don’t often make headlines unless a freak injury or angry confrontation occurs, but one of the Bucks’ workouts stuck out for a different and more positive reason.
Recently retired star and current TNT analyst Kevin Garnett stopped by the Bucks’ facilities last Tuesday, working individually with Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, and Thon Maker.
Kevin Garnett visited Bucks practice and worked with the young Bucks. #OwnTheFuture
Find out what he had to say ???? https://t.co/2IZ7Hc8bkl pic.twitter.com/pgbb3lzRzH
— Milwaukee Bucks (@Bucks) December 7, 2016
Those of us who enjoy the Giannis Stink Face (read: everyone) should be excited to see what elements of The Big Ticket’s fiery competitiveness the young Bucks can co-opt, as well as the wealth of league knowledge Garnett has to dispense.
Although his X’s-and-O’s acumen can and certainly will be questioned in the future, this event is exactly what Jason Kidd brings to the table that not many coaches can – along with a wealth of personal experience in the league, he has connections across circles that have much to teach the young Bucks.
Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
Worst: The Schedule Blues
Without Khris Middleton, the Bucks figured to take a step back this season, as most pundits had them projected far out of the playoff picture. However, a hot start (by Bucks standards) had the team at 11-9, two games over .500 for the first time since the 2014-2015 season.
As the Bucks’ play improved, so did the expectations of the fan base; the doom-and-gloom forecast was replaced with serious playoff prospects and aspirations of current contention.
Of course, these wins were followed up with a three-game skid that leaves the team in its current state at 11-12. Perhaps the best simple summary of the current Bucks’s mediocrity: they have the smallest positive average margin of victory in the league.
Adam McGee captured the essence of the roller-coaster Bucks experience here, but for a more detailed explanation of what fans should expect going forward, I thought it’d be interesting to dive into the metrics.
Put simply, the Bucks have faced a cupcake schedule thus far. According to basketball-reference, the Bucks have had the fifth easiest schedule to this point, and are tied with the Cleveland Cavaliers for the least amount of total games played at 23.
As unfortunate as this may be for the team’s record, the schedule will toughen going forward, the exact degree to which can be seen below:
NBA 2016-17: Average Opponent Strength to date, until the All-Star break, and for the rest of the season. pic.twitter.com/zUHoMAH4Gw
— Ed Küpfer (@EdKupfer) December 9, 2016
Clearly, more challenges are coming for the Bucks, but this shouldn’t be looked at as a bad thing. The playoffs are not the main goal this season, and the experience and growth that will come with stiffer competition will be beneficial to the young Bucks already in leadership roles.
With youth, injuries, and inexperience considered, a bigger-picture focus will be key to watching the Bucks this year.
Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
Worst: Wherefore Art Thou, Miles Plumlee?
At this point, I’ve written so much about the Bucks’ center position that I fear it may have been taking a negative toll on my health, but one aspect of the rotation deserves yet another look into how bad it has gotten.
I used the phrase “missing” early in the season to describe an eight game stretch that saw the Bucks’ $52 million man average just 2.8 points and 2.4 rebounds per game. Of course, “missing” now seems less appropriate for that situation considering what we’ve seen out of Plumlee recently.
Since a loss to the Toronto Raptors on November 25th, Plumlee has played a grand total of 11 minutes over nine games, including five DNP-CD’s.
For all that can be said about the factors leading to this rotation, it cannot be denied that Plumlee’s role is considerably less than ideal considering his contract.
In terms of what made him valuable in the past, Plumlee hasn’t fallen off considerably in the pick-and-roll; he averages an above-average 1.2 points per possession on the aforementioned playtype.
Metrics suggest that Plumlee has been at least passable on the defensive end of the floor, as his defensive rating of 107 ranks fifth on the squad. He also has held opponents to just 37.8 percent shooting, which ranks second on the Bucks (sample size may have skewed results here).
Of course, there has to be something keeping Plumlee off the court, and assuming the answer lies on the court, it looks like offensive inefficiency is the culprit.
The estranged center is shooting 47.2 percent from the floor – for someone marketed as a low-usage finisher, that’s terrible. In fact, it ranks fifth worst among all centers with greater than 100 minutes played.
As I’ve said before, the Plumlee Situation is not irreparable, but it will need a tremendous amount of improvement for his contract to seem accepted.
That’s it for this edition, make sure to check back next time for our next instalment!
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