National Basketball Association

Milwaukee Bucks: 2016-17 Season Outlook

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 12:48 p.m. ET

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The Milwaukee Bucks crashed back to earth in 2015-16 after shocking the NBA with a 26-win improvement the previous season. So which Bucks’ team will we see this time around?

Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) is thought to be poised to break out as a full-fledged star in 2016-17. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

The Milwaukee Bucks collapsed under the weight of great expectations in 2015-16, winning only 33 games as their stifling defense from the previous season disappeared, prized free agent Greg Monroe proved to be a bafflingly uncomfortable fit and a lack of shooting stymied the offense.

Heading into 2016-17, the expectations have been tempered somewhat, although many think Milwaukee has what it takes to return to the postseason.

It starts with fourth-year phenom Giannis Antetokounmpo, a gamble in the 2013 draft with the 15th overall pick who has progressed steadily and exploded after the All-Star break last season after coach Jason Kidd put the offense in his hands.

To date, the Bucks have been unable to move Monroe, who was one of the most perplexing players in the NBA last season–a solid low-post presence who, while putting up solid individual numbers, appeared to stagnate the offense and diminish the defense.

It was the defensive collapse that defined the Bucks’ season in 2015-16. After finishing in the top-five in defensive efficiency in 2014-15 en route to 41 wins and a playoff berth, Milwaukee tumbled to 23rd in the NBA, per Basketball-Reference.com.

The Bucks allowed 6.5 more points per 100 possessions in 2015-16 than in 2014-15, with their defensive rating climbing from 102.2 to 108.7.

Monroe was removed from the starting unit after the All-Star break in favor of journeyman Miles Plumlee before returning to start the final 18 games.

Antetokounmpo appears to be on the verge of full-fledged stardom as he is poised to continue in the “point forward” role he thrived in to close last season.

In the final 29 games, Antetokounmpo averaged 18.8 points, 8.6 rebounds, 7.2 assists, 1.9 blocks and 1.4 steals in 36.5 minutes per game and shot .509/.286/.673.

The Bucks tried to address their outside shooting woes by signing free agents Mirza Teletovic, Matthew Dellavedova and Jason Terry, while also bringing back Steve Novak.

But they also overpaid to keep Plumlee, giving the restricted free agent a four-year, $52 million deal that seems out of whack with his career averages of 5.6 points and 5.3 boards per game.

The succession plan appears to be in place, with assistant general manager Justin Zanik hired in June from the Utah Jazz as the GM-in-waiting, according to Adrian Wojnarowski of The Vertical, while Kidd got a three-year extension through 2019-20.

So there are a lot of moving parts for the Milwaukee Bucks in 2016-17. The question is whether those parts will coalesce into a playoff team.

2015-16 Vitals

33-49, 5th in Central Division, 12th in Eastern Conference
99.0 PPG (25th)/103.2 OPPG (17th)
104.3 Offensive Rating (26th)/108.7 Defensive Rating (23rd)

Team Leaders (minimum 42 games)
Scoring: Khris Middleton 18.2 PPG
Rebounding: Greg Monroe 8.8 RPG
Assists: Michael Carter-Williams 5.2 APG
Steals: Khris Middleton 1.7 SPG
Blocks: John Henson 1.9 BPG

Honors
None

Khris Middleton, a former second-round pick and a throw-in in a sign-and-trade deal three years ago, emerged as the leading scorer for the Milwaukee Bucks last season. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

2016-17 Roster

Giannis Antetokounmpo, F
Malcolm Brogdon, G
Michael Carter-Williams, G
Matthew Dellavedova, G
Tyler Ennis, G
John Henson, F
Orlando Johnson, G
Thon Maker, F-C
Khris Middleton, G-F
Greg Monroe, C-F
Steve Novak, F
J.J. O’Brien, F
Jabari Parker, F
Miles Plumlee, C
Mirza Teletovic, F
Jason Terry, G
Rashad Vaughn, G

Offseason Additions
Malcolm Brogdon (second-round pick, Virginia), Matthew Dellavedova (sign and trade, Cleveland Cavaliers), Orlando Johnson (free agent, New Orleans Pelicans), Thon Maker (10th overall pick, Athlete Institute Academy {Canada}), J.J. O’Brien (free agent, Utah Jazz), Mirza Teletovic (free agent, Phoenix Suns), Jason Terry (free agent, Houston Rockets).

Offseason Departures
Jerryd Bayless (free agent, Philadelphia 76ers), Damien Inglis (waived), O.J. Mayo (free agent, suspended by NBA for two years), draft rights to Albert Miralles (2004 second-round pick, Cleveland Cavaliers), Johnny O’Bryant (waived), Greivis Vasquez (free agent, Brooklyn Nets).

Quick Thoughts

The Milwaukee Bucks added some veteran leadership in former NBA champion and one-time Sixth Man of the Year Jason Terry, who was still productive for the Houston Rockets last season at age 38 for the Houston Rockets, averaging 5.9 points and 1.4 assists in 17.5 minutes a game and shooting 35.6 percent from downtown.

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Dellavedova played a diminshed role during Cleveland’s title run, averaging just 12.1 minutes per game in the playoffs (7.6 per game in the NBA Finals), but was a key player in keeping the Cavaliers afloat while Kyrie Irving recovered from a fractured kneecap.

He’s the point guard in title only, expected to play off the ball while Giannis Antetokounmpo runs the show at that end. That would seem to suit Dellevedova, who hit 46.9 percent of his catch-and-shoot opportunities from 3-point range last season, per NBA.com.

That’s also Mirza Teletovic’s area of expertise. The power forward averaged a career-high 12.2 points per game last season for the Phoenix Suns in just 21.3 minutes a night and shot 39.3 percent from deep.

But after an offseason of rumors surrounding a potential trade of Greg Monroe, the enigma remains on the Bucks’ roster as training camp approaches.

Greg Monroe as an isolation defender was a terrifying sight in 2015-16 … for the Bucks. Mandatory Credit: William Hauser-USA TODAY Sports

Three Key Storylines: 1. The Monroe Dilemma

It was hailed as a major victory for the small-market franchises of the NBA when Greg Monroe spurned the deep pockets and media hubs represented by the New York Knicks and Los Angeles Lakers to sign a three-year, $50 million deal with the Milwaukee Bucks in July 2015.

While on paper, switching Monroe for Zaza Pachulia at center appeared to be a massive upgrade, the results on the court told a different tale.

Monroe was as solid as there was in the NBA as a low-post scorer, averaging 15.3 points in just 29.3 minutes per game and shooting 52.2 percent from the floor. He also got 8.8 rebounds a game and shot a respectable 74 percent at the foul line.

So where did it go wrong?

For starters, once Monroe got the ball in deep, it seldom came back out. And when it did, the Bucks didn’t exactly surround him with shooters–of the most frequently used starting five for the Bucks, only Khris Middleton is a legitimate three-point threat.

Monroe and Jabari Parker were not a good combination, either, with the Bucks playing to a minus-2.7 net rating in the 1,534 minutes the prize free agent and the former No. 2 overall pick shared the floor.

As a defender, Monroe was particularly a problem when isolated on an offensive player, ranking in the 30th percentile per NBA.com’s player tracking stats, allowing 0.94 points per possession on 53.8 percent shooting.

That led weakside defenders to cheat toward Monroe, which led to a ton of open three-point opportunities on ball reversal. Milwaukee was among the bottom of the league in defending the corner three, allowing 40.9 percent from the left corner and 39.1 percent from the right.

Throw in that Monroe is slow to react in help situations–an area where Pachulia was particularly adept–and the Bucks defense collapsed, falling from fourth to 23rd in defensive efficiency.

But the Bucks were unable to move Monroe this summer, as his classic back-to-the-basket, pound-the-ball game seems ill-suited for the NBA’s pace-and-space era.

But because he holds a player option for 2017-18, he’s also seen as an expiring contract (because, hey, why wouldn’t you opt out now that the cap is so much higher than it once was).

So why give up assets for a player when you can just go after him when he’s likely going to re-enter free agency next summer?

There might still be a deal to be had for Monroe (the New Orleans Pelicans have seemed like the best fit for awhile), but unless New Orleans can find a taker for Omer Asik‘s contract (assuming the Bucks would, wisely, not want to take that back in a deal), this may not happen.

So for now, Monroe is still a member of the Bucks, with all of the good and bad that brings with it.

After Jason Kidd handed the reins of the offense to him, Giannis Antetokounmpo was the breakout star of the NBA’s second half. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Three Key Storylines: 2. Pointing Forward

The Milwaukee Bucks are no strangers to the point forward role. In the 1980s, Paul Pressey helped pioneer the concept for Don Nelson‘s Eastern Conference contenders of that era.

After the All-Star break last season, coach Jason Kidd ditched a traditional offensive attack and put the ball in the hands of Giannis Antetokounmpo.

And man did the Greek Freak run with it.

As mentioned previously, Antetokounmpo put up 18.8 points, 8.6 rebounds, 7.2 assists, 1.9 blocks and 1.4 steals after the switch. That compares to 15.9 points, 7.1 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.2 blocks and 1.0 steals in 34.6 minutes per game in the first half of the season.

Included in Antetokounmpo’s 29-game burst were his first five career triple-doubles, including a 28-11-14 performance in a win at Brooklyn on March 13 and a 27-12-10 in a win over the Los Angeles Lakers on Feb. 22.

The Bucks were 4-1 in the five games Antetokounmpo stuffed the stat sheets.

Milwaukee suffered from a serious lack of three-point shooting for much of last season.

Not only was its 34.5 percent mark from there was just 22nd in the NBA, but the Bucks’1,277 attempts were far and away the fewest in the league, 70 less than the 29th-place Minnesota Timberwolves.

More to the point, the Bucks made 38 more three-pointers (440) in 2015-16 than Stephen Curry did by himself (402).

In what was anticipated to be the Bucks’ starting five, only Khris Middleton offered any threat from deep, hitting 39.6 percent (143-for-361).

Jabari Parker was only 9-for-35 (25.7 percent), Antetokounmpo was 28-for-109 (25.7 percent) and Michael Carter-Williams was 15-for-55 (27.3 percent).

That’s where the addition of Matthew Dellavedova comes in.

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This gives Antetokounmpo the perfect offensive foil. The Freak can do his thing running the offense and Dellavedova provides Milwaukee with another floor spacer.

Defensively, Dellavedova is capable of annoying opposing point guards into submission while Antetokounmpo will defend on the wing.

More spacing will help provide room for Antetokounmpo’s long, swooping drives to the rim and for Parker and Monroe to do their thing on the block.

On paper, it looks like an improvement for the Bucks. How that translates to actual results is the big question.

As he enters his third NBA season, we’re still not sure what Jabari Parker really is. Mandatory Credit: John Geliebter-USA TODAY Sports

Three Key Storylines: 3. A Defining Season For Jabari

Jabari Parker enters his third NBA season still something of an unknown.

His rookie year was wrecked 25 games in by a torn ACL and he spent much of last season working his way back from that injury.

But Parker quietly experienced a renaissance of his own after the All-Star break, albeit one that was overshadowed by the Giannis Antetokounmpo Show.

In 28 games after the break in 2015-16, Parker averaged 18.9 points, 6.1 rebounds, 2.2 assists and 1.1 steals in 36.5 minutes per game on a slash line of .498/.321/.767.

That compared to 11.3 points and 4.7 rebounds in 28.8 minutes on .488/0-for7/.768 shooting before the break.

Some of the increase can be attributed to more playing time, but certainly not all of it. Parker became more assertive in creating offense for himself and teammates.

It’s hard to remember at this point there were legitimate questions about whether it should be Parker or Andrew Wiggins taken No. 1 overall in the 2014 NBA Draft. Ultimately, Wiggins went to the Cleveland Cavaliers and Parker was taken by the Bucks.

Parker spent his recovery time from the ACL injury reinventing his physique. He returned leaner and stronger last season.

Perhaps this offseason, he spent time reinventing his jump shot.

Of course, his shooting range didn’t translate to much beyond layups and dunks last season.

Parker finished at the rim at a solid 65.7 percent clip. But accuracy fell off the table as he moved away from the basket–just 35.6 percent on shots of three to nine feet, 39.7 percent from 10-15 feet and 33.9 percent from 16 feet to the three-point line.

The potential is there for Parker to be a terrific pro. That was evidenced by his strong finish to last season.

How well he carries that momentum forward to this season and what improvements he adds to his game in his third season will say a lot about how close he comes to realizing that potential.

The Milwaukee Bucks thought Miles Plumlee was worth keeping around, re-signing the restricted free agent to a four-year, $52 million deal. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

Best Case Scenario

Giannis Antetokounmpo continues his breakout, emerging as an All-Star and a fringe MVP candidate while flirting with triple-doubles on a nightly basis, as Jabari Parker solidifies his jump shot and becomes a true offensive threat.

Miles Plumlee shows he was worth the cash the Milwaukee Bucks tossed his way, looking like a more mature version of the guy who averaged 8.1 points and 7.8 rebounds for the Cinderella Phoenix Suns in 2013-14.

Meanwhile, Greg Monroe becomes the go-to guy off the bench for the second unit, where his defensive deficiencies are masked a bit by going against backups instead of starters.

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Mirza Teletovic provides the spacing for the second unit, while Matthew Dellavedova provides that for the starters and the Bucks come together for a 50-win season and a top-four finish in the East.

Worst Case Scenario

Greg Monroe’s situation becomes untenable, with coach Jason Kidd having to choose whether to massage the big man’s bruised ego or just sit him down.

Matthew Dellavedova and the Bucks discover that throwing big money asking a pesky reserve to become a 32-35 minute per game player is a risky proposition, as Dellavedova struggles to handle the increased role he’s asked to play.

Spacing continues to be a problem for the Bucks. Khris Middleton can’t be asked to do all of the three-point shooting. At the same time, the defensive struggles to cover the corners continue and Milwaukee finds itself on the wrong end of a lot of trading three points for two.

General manager John Hammond finds himself wondering by the end of another season with a win total in the low 30s whether that lucrative extension for Kidd was a gigantic mistake.

The Milwaukee Bucks rolled the dice on 7-foot-1 project Thon Maker with the 10th overall pick in June’s NBA Draft. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

Prediction

Yeah, OK. No team in the NBA has been harder to predict over the last two seasons.

Let’s recap: Expected to win about 25 games in 2014-15, the Bucks won 41 and made the playoffs. Expected to flirt with 50 wins in 2015-16, Milwaukee won 33 and finished 12th in the East.