The Miami Heat are firmly on course to seal a playoff spot, but if they miss out, it adds pressure to land a big free agent this summer.
Over the last couple of months, the Miami Heat have had the best record in the NBA, as they have gone 24-6 since early January.
The reversal in fortune has led to Miami becoming an outsider for a playoff spot, and they currently lead the Detroit Pistons by one game for the eighth and final position, although Detroit is currently winning the head-to-head tiebreaker 2-1, with the teams scheduled to meet a final time in Detroit on March 28.
Many believe that the Miami Heat will make the playoffs, but if they do not, then it presents an awkward scenario for Pat Riley.
While the Heat making the playoffs is what Riley wants, if they finish in the ninth or 10th spot and end up missing the playoffs, they could be stuck in limbo for the next year or two.
Riley has generally dealt in absolutes throughout his career in Miami. He has either gone into a full-scale rebuild as he did in 2002 and 2007 or he has spent big in free agency to build super-teams and winning teams.
As of now, the Heat are neither of these things and they won't have a high lottery pick barring a historic stroke of luck.
The Heat's current team is good and if they go into free agency as expected and manage to land someone such as Paul Millsap or Blake Griffin, they will be contenders going into the 2017 season as they have a terrific head coach and a culture that maximizes every player that turns up to ply their trade in South Beach.
At this point though, it has to be playoffs or bust for the Miami Heat, as they have put so much effort into trying to make the playoffs and potentially cause an upset against a team such as the Celtics or the Cavaliers.
Miami stood pat at the deadline and opted against landing big hauls for players such as Goran Dragic. Riley opted not to tank despite their 11-30 record at the halfway point of the season.
If the Heat finish outside the playoffs, then the whole season can be seen as an abject failure, as it is difficult to land a franchise-changing player towards the bottom of the lottery.
This is one of the best draft classes for some time and Riley opted against blowing the entire team up in a bid to land someone such as Markelle Fultz or Lonzo Ball.
For the record, the Heat going all out for a playoff spot makes sense.
Dragic makes them an offensive juggernaut and the improved play of players such as Rodney McGruder was highly encouraging. At their best, the Heat are the only team outside of the true contenders that is top-10 at both ends of the floor.
For the Heat to make the playoffs, they will have to continue beating the good teams, as they have a harder schedule than all of the teams in the 6-11 range with the exception of the Indiana Pacers.
To put it simply, the odds are currently stacked against the Heat and the upcoming run will be a huge test for this team.
The Heat are expected to go into free agency as they usually do, but if the Heat miss the playoffs, then it puts even more pressure on Riley to deliver a star to South Beach.
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If the Heat had tanked, they could have potentially found a franchise-changing star at the top of the draft, but because they haven't, they will likely have to spend big free agency money.
If the Heat miss the playoffs, then it will essentially prove that their current core isn't good enough to be anything more than a middling group in the East.
For Riley, this won't be good enough. Riley is addicted to winning, he could fit a ring he has earned on every single one of his fingers.
Riley does not want to turn the Miami Heat into a team that is comfortable winning 45 games a year and maybe winning a playoff series–he and coach Erik Spoelstra are too good for that.
Generally, teams like Miami opt for a boom-or-bust type approach to team building. They are either go big or they strip their rosters down to the bare bones and try to land good young players through the draft.
Let's not forget that Miami's success was mainly on the back of a player they tanked for in Dwyane Wade.
Missing the playoffs wouldn't be a disaster in every way, because this year has showed that Miami have got a great head coach and they also have unearthed some talent in players such as McGruder and Willie Reed.
This year has also proved that Spoelstra can make even the most average group of players into a group that can beat the Rockets, Cavaliers and Warriors.
Being on the fringes of the playoffs isn't an area Miami should really be, their good players are in the prime of their career and they don't really have a young core of players that are developing in the way that the Bucks or the 76ers do.
Sure, they have found some young talent through the D-League, but these players are role players, not franchise changers.
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For a franchise that has won so much lately, missing out on the playoffs by an inch would be much harder to take than missing it completely. Making a valiant run for the playoffs, only to finish outside, means nothing to a team like Miami that has won so much.
A playoff appearance with this cast of players, however, would be an outstanding achievement that would probably win Spoelstra a Coach of the Year award.
Riley opted against tanking and in doing this, he put all his hope in the fact that the Heat would make the NBA Playoffs. Spoelstra looks set to deliver this on the Heat's current tangent, but the tough schedule may get to them at some point.
The game against the Pistons is also pivotal, as the Pistons currently have the tiebreaker over the Heat.
The departure of Wade signaled the beginning of a new era for the Heat and while the majority of the signs have been positive, missing the playoffs would be hugely disappointing after everything that went into it.
I expect Riley to move aggressively in the summer regardless of what happens over the next 11 games, but he may need to be even more aggressive if the Heat miss the playoffs, purely because they won't have an elite prospect coming to them.
