National Basketball Association

Miami Heat 2016-17 Season Outlook: The Changing Of The Guard

Updated Mar. 5, 2020 1:06 a.m. ET

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Nov 1, 2015; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Heat center Hassan Whiteside (right) celebrates with Miami Heat forward Justise Winslow (left) after Winslow made a three point basket during the second half at American Airlines Arena. The Heat won 109-89. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

The Miami Heat are looking to build off of a 2nd round playoff exit, which was followed by an atrocious offseason, heading into the 2016-17 campaign

Last Season: 48-34, 3rd in Eastern Conference, Second Round Loss to Raptors

The Good: Pat Riley was able to re-sign Hassan Whiteside to a four-year max contract. Whiteside has been a revelation for his first two years in South Beach. An unheralded second round draft pick, who was cut multiple times, has become one of the NBA’s best centers. He also brought back young guard Tyler Johnson and added some depth to the Miami bench. Dion Waiters, James Johnson, and Derrick Williams won’t knock anyone’s socks off but they are all capable of being solid role players for this squad.

The Bad: Pat Riley brought back Tyler Johnson, for $50 million over the course of four years. Considering the NBA’s new salary cap and how exorbitant deals are, this isn’t awful but it is a lot of money for a guard who might not even start for the Heat. Miami lost Joe Johnson and Luol Deng in the same offseason, which turned their great depth at shooting guard and small forward into just the opposite.

Neither player is in their prime, but both could have been valuable for Coach Spo, especially considering the other players they lost.

The Ugly: Oh, that’s right Miami lost the other two pieces of their former Big Three this offseason. Dwyane Wade’s exit was particularly hard to swallow for fans, considering he was a member of the Heat since day one of his NBA career. He left, jaded, for his hometown team, the Chicago Bulls. Now while Chris Bosh’s exit from Miami has not become official, Pat Riley has publicly said that his “Heat career is probably over” due to another failed physical.

Meanwhile Bosh said on Uninterrupted.com that “I didn’t get a call or a text or anything like that…you don’t want to find these things out through the media.”

Mar 3, 2016; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Heat guard Goran Dragic (left) talks with Miami Heat forward Justise Winslow (right) during the second half against the Phoenix Suns at American Airlines Arena. The Heat 108-92. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

The Depth Chart

Point Guard: Goran Dragic, Tyler Johnson, Beno Udrih

Shooting Guard: Josh Richardson, Dion Waiters, Wayne Ellington

Small Forward: Justise Winslow, Luke Babbitt,

Power Forward: Derrick Williams, James Johnson, Josh McRoberts

Center: Hassan Whiteside, Udonis Haslem

While the Miami Heat starting five is not one of the NBA’s best, it can certainly remain competitive throughout the regular season.

The backup Miami backcourt can keep up with the best bench guard duos in the league, but their depth elsewhere is rather slim. Babbitt, Ellington and Johnson can play their respective roles but they are not top tier bench talent.

The Heat frontcourt, off the pine, is mediocre at best. Heat fans have to hope that Coach Spo can work some magic with this less than stellar bench.

Apr 17, 2016; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Heat forward Justise Winslow (L) talks to Heat guard Josh Richardson (R) during the second half in game one of the first round of the NBA Playoffs against the Charlotte Hornets at American Airlines Arena. The Heat won 123-91. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Strengths: Defense

This squad has the potential to be a great defensive unit. Josh Richardson and Justise Winslow, starting at the 2 and 3 respectively, bring above average perimeter defense to the table. That combined with Hassan Whiteside’s elite rim-protecting abilities provide Miami with the chance to lockdown people on the outside and the inside.

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Their offensive strength projects to be their transition offense. Lockdown defense coupled with Miami’s athleticism should make them a transition oriented squad.

Goran Dragic’s deceptive quickness, the speed of their younger guards, and Justise Winslow’s raw athleticism gives them the ability to clamp down on one end and run out for quick points off stops.

Weaknesses: No True Leader

The Miami Heat are a team devoid of a proven leader, which will put more pressure onto Erik Spoelstra. Aside from Udonis Haslem, and the aforementioned Chris Bosh (whose career in Miami has all but officially ended), none of these players were on the back-to-back championships Heat team. It’s now up to Goran Dragic and Hassan Whiteside to become the veteran presence this team needs.

As far as on-the-court, Miami’s weakness is their lack of offensive versatility. They have shooters, none of which are deadeye knockdown shooters, and lack a real post-presence. The offensive strategy is going to rely heavily on transition scoring, pick and rolls with Hassan Whiteside, and Coach Spoelstra’s play calling.

January 11, 2016; Oakland, CA, USA; Miami Heat forward Justise Winslow (20) shoots the basketball during the first quarter against the Golden State Warriors at Oracle Arena. The Warriors defeated the Heat 111-103. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The Miami Heat’s MIP Will Be…

Justise Winslow, the No. 10 pick in last year’s draft, is going to play a large role in whether or not Miami is able to return to the postseason this year. If the wing makes some strides during his sophomore campaign, he can carry this team over the hump and into the playoffs.

He was drafted as an athletic defender with a streaky perimeter shot. If he is able to sure up his outside game and drive to the hoop semi-consistently, Winslow has the potential to be a star.

His game has flashes of a young Paul George, but flashes don’t make careers they make hypotheticals. PG13 has developed immensely since his earlier years, so Heat fans will have to cross their fingers that Winslow begins to take his steps towards stardom this season.

In order for this season to be a successful one Coach Spo has to rally the remaining members of his squad, and galvanize them as a team.

Spoelstra, who has been an underrated coach since his days coaching the LeBron-Wade-Bosh Big Three, can turn this squad into the South Beach version of Brad Stevens 2015-16 Celtics team. They can become a gritty, irritant which overachieves and sneaks into postseason play.

A successful season for the Miami Heat would be one in which their young core continues to develop and they make the playoffs. Anything beyond those is icing on the cake.

Apr 20, 2016; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra (R) talks to guard Goran Dragic (7) in game two of the first round of the NBA Playoffs against the Charlotte Hornets during the second quarter at American Airlines Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Last year’s Miami Heat went 48-34 and were the third seed in the Eastern Conference. This team, by default, is less talented than that team was, since Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh are no longer members of the team.

Nevertheless, the Eastern Conference is not the harder conference and this team is still on the top half of the East. They might not be a top four team anymore, but they can still compete with the likes of Detroit, Charlotte, and Boston.

In Year One AD, “After Dwyane,” the Heat should contend throughout the season and find themselves in the playoffs again as a 6-8 seed.

A first round exit is the likely outcome, but if they get a higher seed and catch a team that underestimates them then all bets are off.

Prediction: 46-36, First Round Exit

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