In defense of DeMar DeRozan: Why the Raptors wing isn't overrated
By Tom Piccolo
The continued decline of the mid-range jump shot in the NBA has been well documented here, here, and just about anywhere smart people talk about basketball. The nearly ubiquitous shift away from long two-pointers makes it even more perplexing that the Toronto Raptors, a vanguard of the analytics movement, have established a core that includes one of the most prolifically inaccurate mid-range shooters in the league: DeMar DeRozan.
The case against DeRozan is a strong one. In fact, per Nylon Calculus, the 2014-15 season saw the Raptors winger attempt the highest rate of mid-range shots among guards, while connecting on the lowest percentage of that group:
Digging deeper into the specifics of DeRozan's shot selection does not help, either. Per the authors of Basketball Analytics: Spatial Tracking, DeRozan took the the highest percentage of “pull-up, contested, 2-pointers from at least 10 ft. from the hoop and with at least five seconds on the shot clock.” The authors called these attempts "painfully ill-advised shots," or PIS for short. Plus, if the beginning of this season is any indication, DeRozan has no plans to curb his mid-range habit in favor of a more efficient offensive shot. He currently ranks second in the league in pull-up twos attempted while being tightly guarded, behind just Dwyane Wade.
Given all of the above, there are a few questions that need answering. Why have the Raptors made DeRozan a cornerstone? Is he a primary reason for their hot start this year? What were the Eastern Conference coaches thinking when they voted him as a reserve for the 2014 All-Star game? Why did Coach K elect to keep the Raptors guard for the USA National Team last year? To answer these questions, we'll have to start by examining the last place you would expect: analytics.
It may blow your mind, but there is one aspect of DeRozan's game that makes him one of the most analytically friendly offensive players in the league. Although the corner three often gets the recognition, the most valuable shot in the game is actually worth one point. Per Nylon Calculus:
"In the NBA (in 2013-14), players made just under 36% of the 1766 three pointers taken, for an average of 1.078 points per three point attempt. Players made 75.6% of their free throw attempts for 1.51 points per shooting foul drawn on a two shot. And for those doing the math at home, yes 1.51 is greater than 1.078."
Per Basketball Reference, only Kevin Durant and James Harden have made more free throws than DeRozan since 2012. Currently, DeRozan is second in the league in total free throws attempted, averaging a ridiculous 10.4 per game. The Raptors star is a career 82% free throw shooter, making the most of his frequent trips to the charity stripe.
The unique thing about DeRozan is that he is able to draw fouls without attempting many shots in the paint. The video below from NBA.com does a good job of articulating how he is able to draw contact using his defender's momentum and body position:
DeMar DeRozan - One Stat - One Play : NBA.com
As long as DeRozan is able to get to the line and knock down free throws at an elite rate, he will remain a dangerous scorer in the league, despite his questionable shot selection.
Another (more abstract) reason DeRozan is important for this Raptors team is for the purpose of non-conformity. Mark Cuban once said:
"Wherever I see people doing something...the way it's 'supposed' to be done, following the same old trends, well, that's just a big red flag to me to go look somewhere else."
This ideology directly applies to the current NBA trend of shooting predominantly threes and shots in the paint. Now that every team is trying to be the Warriors or Spurs, it's only a matter of time before defenses catch up. As former Grantland writer Kirk Goldsberry said:
"By forgoing midrange shots altogether, (teams) are telling opponents that they don’t plan on using a giant swath of tactical space relatively close to the basket. As NBA defenses evolve, the smartest ones are already finding ways to counter the smart-guy shot-selection strategy."
Having a player who is willing to keep teams honest and force them to defend the entirety of the floor may suddenly be hugely valuable, as it is now rebuking a league-wide trend. DeRozan does just that.
Though DeRozan is known mostly as a scorer, his value also comes from his versatility. Since 2011, only nine players have averaged 19 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists per game while playing in at least 220 games. That list looks like this:
That's not bad company to keep for someone who has been called the most overrated player in the league on some NBA message boards. Certainly, DeRozan has room for improvement in terms of his shooting accuracy and overall shot selection. He allegedly worked on extending his range this offseason, so look for that potential development as this season unfolds. However, even if he fails to cut out the low efficiency shots this season, the Raptors should to continue to embrace their star, warts and all.
More from The Sports Quotient:
