National Basketball Association

Handicapping the race for the NBA scoring title

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Handicapping the race for the NBA scoring title and looking at who should be the favorite to lead the league in scoring this year.

Winning the NBA scoring title is a prestigious honor. The scoring leader will forever be enshrined in the record books. Fans for years will be able to see who the most unstoppable scoring threat was in the 2016-2017 NBA season based on the results of this race.

Every single eligible NBA scoring leader is currently in the NBA Hall of Fame. It takes a lot of skill to lead the NBA in scoring in a season, and we are in a time where there is a lot of immensely talented players.

Because of this, this scoring race is shaping up to be a good one. These are the current leaders entering Friday night’s games:

As the season goes on, this list will be subject to change but there is enough to establish favorites for who ends up the scoring champion at the end of the year and we handicap that race.

Mandatory Credit: Steve Dykes-USA TODAY Sports

5. Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers

Damian Lillard gets the nod for fifth best odds over Demar Derozan because he’s been scoring more of late. (Derozan is averaging 24.8 PPG in his last 10) Lillard has increased his scoring in each of his first four years and is set to do the same in year five. His current average of 28.2 points nightly will blow out his previous average of 25.1.

The Portland Trail Blazers are largely dependent on guards Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum to generate offense. The young franchise cornerstones rank third and seventh in the league in field goal attempts. Portland currently allows the second-most points in the league and plays at the eighth-fastest pace; they play in a lot of shootouts. Though Al-Farouq Aminu should help the Trail Blazers when he returns, this should be the case all season.

Damian Lillard ranks seventh in the league in usage rate. That type of usage over his 35.6 minutes per game is occurring in one of the friendliest situations in the league for a scorer. Rotogrinders statistics have Lillard leading the league in touches per game. It’s not hard to see why Lillard is among the league’s scoring leaders.

Odds of leading the league in scoring: 8/1

Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

4. Demarcus Cousins, Sacramento Kings

Demarcus Cousins is undoubtedly one of the league’s most talented scorers. He led the league in usage last year and thus far has eclipsed that usage percentage. Currently, his 36.9% rate ranks second in the league. An average of 28.7 points per game would be a career high for the 26-year-old. There are a limited number of players with Cousins’ athletic ability, and Sacramento is making sure to deploy him well.

The Kings aren’t the most talented bunch in the league. Coach Dave Joerger has his squad playing competitive ball, but there are limited consistent options. Cousins is fifth in the league in shots because of the offensive burden he carries. In addition, the uncertainty in Sacramento could increase Cousins’ load. Suppose the Kings make a roster move—like trading Rudy Gay—without receiving another scorer in return, Boogie would have to take even more shots.

Odds of leading the league in scoring: 9:2

Mandatory Credit: Chris Nicoll-USA TODAY Sports

3. James Harden, Houston Rockets

James Harden and Mike D’Antoni have been a marriage made in heaven thus far. The new coach has fully embraced Harden as the engine of his spread pick and roll system that once revolutionized the league with the Suns. Though the Rockets only rank 13th in pace, their style of play has brought out the most in Harden. Houston has been breaking records for three-point attempts and the court spacing has given everyone room to thrive.

Currently, Harden’s 28.1 points per game is only sixth in the league. However, his usage rating is fifth. Harden is also fourth in minutes per game. If the oft-injured Ryan Anderson or Eric Gordon are to sustain an injury, then Harden’s scoring load would have to increase. It’s realistic that he makes a run for the scoring title this season. Harden is the engine that makes Houston go; nobody should doubt the statistics that he is capable of with D’Antoni.

Odds of leading the league in scoring: 4:1

Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

2. Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans

So far this season, the New Orleans Pelicans have gone as far as 23-year-old Anthony Davis has carried them. They are a disappointing 7-12, despite the best efforts of Davis. He is the current league leader in scoring and blocks, along with a career high 11.3 rebounds per game. Davis is also second in minutes per game, second in the league in shots, and fourth in usage. The Pelicans second leading scorer on the year is Tim Frazier, who they signed out of the D-League last March.

Things aren’t as bleak going forward for the Pelicans as they have been at the beginning of the year. They are 5-2 since the return of guard Jrue Holiday, who has helped alleviate some of the scoring load from Davis. Tyreke Evans, a career 16.7 PPG scorer, is also due back soon. The presence of more established scorers will likely make Davis’ numbers dip just a bit, but it is good for the team.

Odds of leading the league in scoring: 5:2

Mandatory Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports

1. Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder

Before this season, Russell Westbrook had shown an ability to produce crazy statistics. His stats without Kevin Durant on the court had been even more ridiculous. With Durant now in Oakland, Westbrook’s numbers without Durant are showing up over a full season. Already currently averaging a triple double, he should also be the favorite to lead the league in scoring.

Westbrook’s current average of 31.2 points per game would be a career high, but it is not a fluke. He is first in the league in usage by a large margin, sitting at 41.0 percent. He is on track to crush the NBA record for usage rate. The season is barely over a month old and he is almost leading the league in field goal attempts by almost 100 shots. He is going to carry the Thunder all year and should be the odds-on favorite to lead all scorers.

Odds of leading the league in scoring: 2:1