National Basketball Association

Even players not sure free agency risk worth it

Published Oct. 26, 2009 9:37 p.m. ET

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Wade and Bosh aren't so sure. Charles Barkley thinks it's "stupid."

Trying to win through free agency is risky in the NBA, yet the Knicks, New Jersey Nets and Miami Heat clearly seem to be leaning in that direction. They appear to have no Plan B.

"I mean, those are teams who are putting all their eggs in the basket," Bosh said.

Those clubs are positioned to be farthest under the salary cap next summer, waiting with checkbooks open when a blockbuster free agent class arrives. James is the headliner, with Wade, Bosh and Amare Stoudemire among the other All-Stars who could be available.

Throw in names like Yao Ming, Dirk Nowitzki, Ray Allen, Tracy McGrady, Carlos Boozer and Joe Johnson, all of whom could be on the market, and it's obvious why teams are lining up for the chance to be spenders.

Bad strategy, said Barkley, who considers James the only franchise changer.

"To put your fans through all the losing and then you don't get that quote-unquote savior, I don't think it's fair at all," Barkley said. "These teams have all become losers. They're all shedding their good players and their contracts for one guy. And I'm like, that doesn't do your fan base any good, but also if you don't get that guy, what do you do?"

Seven teams could be more than $10 million under the cap, and most of those were cautious or inactive this summer so they could save their money for next July. With the caliber of players who could be available, it's an understandable decision.

But Wade offers a warning: Buyers beware.

"When you think about how many teams that quote-unquote are waiting around, you've got to remember there's not that many franchise players to fill every team, from the looks of it now," Wade said. "For everybody to wait around, it is kind of like swinging a bat with your eyes closed. You don't know if you're going to hit it or not."

And that's just one reason some people say you can't win in the NBA by trying to build through free agency.

"I disagree with that. I think that's the quickest way to get up to the contending class," Knicks president Donnie Walsh said. "I think a lot of people back when I started doing this, they used to build through the draft. That's going to take you a long time.

"First of all, let's say you need four or five players. That's four or five years. And then when you get all the players, they have to play together to become a team, and then you have to be right on every pick. So that's seven, eight years. So I think you can shortcut that."

Walsh said from the moment he arrived in New York in April 2008 that his goal was to get into the free agent market in two years, and he's done it. The Knicks will have about $23 million in cap space next July. That's about the same as the Nets, who have shed payroll by dealing Jason Kidd, Richard Jefferson and Vince Carter in recent years, and roughly $5 million more than the Heat.

Having money and getting players to take it are entirely different things. Chicago learned that when it tried to rebuild after Michael Jordan retired the second time, only to find no amount of money was worth the pressure of trying to replace him.

Orlando's strategy a decade ago was to land Tim Duncan and Grant Hill. It had to settle for Hill and McGrady, and never won a title. Duncan stayed in San Antonio and won three more.

"There's a combination of guys who make you a championship contender, but to make that risk when there's so many other teams doing the same thing, the risk isn't worth the reward, because the consequences can be fatal," said Kenny Smith, Barkley's TNT studio partner. "You risk having this money and then having to give it to guys that aren't really going to make you a different team."

NBA rules allow teams to pay their free agents more than other teams, making it harder to pry a player away. James could make $125.7 million in a six-year deal by staying in Cleveland, but earn "only" $96.2 million over five if he goes elsewhere.

Plus, the Knicks and Nets would have to interest him in leaving a title contender for a rebuilding team.

"Everybody wants to win," said Hornets All-Star Chris Paul, a friend and Olympic teammate of James and Wade. "So let the Heat win the championship this year, you think D-Wade's going somewhere? Let 'Bron win the championship, you think he's going somewhere?

The Knicks aren't scared by talk like that.

"I think there's a lot of factors involved," said coach Mike D'Antoni, who engineered a huge turnaround in Phoenix after the Suns signed Steve Nash. "The city's involved and the amount of money's involved and whether you can win or not's involved, your teammates are involved, the coach's involved, the style, all that.

"Now one player might want more money over winning, one winning over money. They all say it's about winning, but a lot of times it's about the money. So I just don't think you can generalize and you've just got to take it by case-by-case basis."

The Knicks have plenty of money, and so will the Nets if their proposed sale to Russian billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov goes through. But this isn't like baseball, where there is no salary cap and the New York Yankees spent $423.5 million last offseason on CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Mark Teixeira, and find themselves in the World Series.

Spend too much on one or two players in the NBA, and there may not be enough left to fill out a championship-caliber roster - especially with the cap expected to decline next summer as a result of the economic downturn. That's something else James would have to consider, but D'Antoni shakes off that concern, too.

"I would think you'd try to get guys that (think), 'Where I go, they'll win no matter who they are,"' he said. "That's kind of the guys that we would like to entice, that they're the difference makers."

There often aren't enough of them, with Shaquille O'Neal's move from Orlando to Los Angeles in 1996 the last major free agency transaction to yield an NBA title. A few teams are hoping it can happen again.

"You've got 25 starters that's going to be free agents, but to be bad for three years for that, that's a tough pill to swallow," Smith said. "You've got to be good in 2010, that's what I would say. If you're not good in 2010, there's a lot of people that will be trying to get jobs next to me and Charles."

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