National Basketball Association

Distant Suns Rise Part 3: Talent

Updated Mar. 5, 2020 12:51 a.m. ET

Fansided, Andrew Clark/FanSided via Valley of the Suns

In my previous post that you can read here, I discussed how to improve the way management of the Phoenix Suns is structured. In this posting, I’ll go through the coaches and players.

What makes the business of sports unique is that not only are the players and coaches employees, but they are also the product. The same principles of employee relations in any business hold true, but they are compounded by the complexities of the game itself.

Most data geeks will tell you that one of the most challenging and exciting frontiers in business is relational databases. These are databases dedicated to understanding the relationship between people and things. In basketball, this is a primitive science. Data and analytics have helped management and coaches understand how individual performance is maximized. The best example of this is the rise in value of so-called “3 and D” players as analytics demonstrate the marginal value of the corner three.

The challenge for sports analysts is that basketball is a team game and so the real value isn’t found in getting five players to perform at their individual peak, but to have five guys whose aggregate play is better than the opposing team. The challenge is to understand relationships that help answer questions such as whether having TJ Warren’s twenty points per game join Booker’s make the team more likely to win than having PJ Tucker’s defense cover up Booker’s weakness.

We don’t have any magical ball to provide answers into the complex soup of personalities and playing relationships. We can provide an assessment into whether or not the Suns have the right tools in place to learn lessons like this over time and adapt until they eventually develop the competitive edge that builds a champion.

Coaching

Jan 26, 2017; Denver, CO, USA; Phoenix Suns head coach Earl Watson looks on from the sidelines during the second half against the Denver Nuggets at Pepsi Center. The Nuggets won 127-120. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

The Suns coaching staff is a complicated assessment. What you would hope to see in a coach is someone who shows improvement over time to best knowledge. Gregg Popovich is the gold standard for this. While he may not have the data nerds crunching relational analytics, he intuitively understands the same implications. When the Spurs nearly got beaten in the playoffs by Mike D’Antoni and the seven seconds of less Suns, Popovich went back to the lab. The Spurs emerged that next fall with a run and gun set that outscored the Suns when needed and could flip to their traditional clamp down defense to secure victories. Pop continues to make a career out of constant change to rotations and sets in order to keep a competitive edge.

Watson’s performance to date makes it difficult to know if he has a similar approach. The team has lacked a sense of fundamentals, which isn’t surprising for a team this young, but the limited improvement over time is concerning. What does seems clear is that Watson often struggles to position players where they can maximize their strength.

Archie Goodwin, a terrible jump shooter, spent much of his time under Watson standing still for the corner or elbow threes instead of playing to his strengths and cutting/rolling in a motion offense. Watson seems to have the same game plan for 7’1″ Bender. The motion offense doesn’t motion. Defensive rotations are lax to non-existent. The team doesn’t get back and set in time and the players do not box out. In addition to the questionable rotations and sets, there appears to be little accountability. No playing time changes to reward good effort or punish bad. Shot selection is awful and there is very slow development and improvement over time.

What is encouraging about Watson is that he is an attraction for players and coaches. He has assistant coaches with proven track records of performance, who are former head coaches, and are willing to work under him. His influence is the reason the Suns have been able to take chances at attracting big names. His love-based approach appeals to and fits with the current generation of NBA players.

Players

Jan 3, 2017; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Phoenix Suns center Tyson Chandler (4), forward Marquese Chriss (0), guard Devin Booker (1), forward TJ Warren (12) and guard Eric Bledsoe (2) react on the bench in the first half of the NBA game against the Miami Heat at Talking Stick Resort Arena. The Suns won 99-90. Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Stewart-USA TODAY Sports

The Suns are loaded with good young talent. Booker and Warren are 20 ppg players with potential for more. Chriss and Bender seem to have considerable potential to be above average rotation players. Alex Len seems destined to be a consistent double-double producer as a starter. The skeleton of a championship team is there and the core players are close enough in age to develop together.

The lack of consistent vision means there are many pieces on this team that don’t fit: Tyson Chandler, PJ Tucker, Dudley, and Barbosa are all preventing younger players from developing at an appropriate rate and makes it difficult to assess the coaching talent. Players like Knight and Bledsoe who provide a lot of value are too old to develop in the same timeline as the core group and therefore don’t fit the long-term vision.

Long-term the team needs the following parts to fit in with their young base:

The Suns need to unload the pieces that don’t currently fit their roster for future first round picks. GMs hoard first round picks in the upcoming draft like they are only children. These same GMs are more lax with picks that might be given away long after they are no longer employed by the team. Trading for picks further into the future maximizes the value. It also allows the Suns to continue to reload in waves as they develop the talent they currently have.Next: Conclusion: How far away are the Phoenix Suns from Winning a Championship?

Conclusion

Jan. 24, 2013; Phoenix, AZ, USA: Phoenix Suns owner Robert Sarver in the second half against the Los Angeles Clippers at the US Airways Center. The Suns defeated the Clippers 93-88. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

For the Suns, keeping the status quo should not be an option. Standing in the middle of a road only means that you get hit by traffic going both ways. The team must choose a vision and commit to a structure, people, and a process that supports that vision. If they don’t, they will continue to suffer as the literal worst franchise in the NBA and one of the worst in all of sports.