National Basketball Association

D'Angelo Russell has high risk/high reward potential

Published Jun. 22, 2015 3:27 p.m. ET

foxsports

By Christopher Reina

D’Angelo Russell is the best pure basketball player in the 2015 NBA Draft and fascinatingly has the highest potential of becoming its best player and biggest bust. Russell is the type of player where there is an all or nothing sense to his NBA future.

Russell is tremendously creative as a playmaker with his shotmaking off the dribble and vision as a passer. With his size and strength, Russell is an ideal player to counter the NBA’s new trend of switching pick and rolls. There is no easy way to defend Russell in these situations since he can hit jumpers if the defender goes under the screen and he then can drive or find an open man if he’s trailed.

Russell has publicly cited Stephen Curry as a comparison, but there is nothing to suggest they are in the same vicinity as shooters. At 41.4 percent on three-pointers and 75.6 percent on free throws, Russell’s shooting is fairly close to O.J. Mayo’s at USC. Mayo developed into a career 37.7 percent three-point shooter and 82.2 percent at the free throw line in the NBA, but the free throw shooting metric shows he’s more likely to become very good instead of world class. Russell is more of a pure scorer than pure shooter.

Russell is capable of playing off the ball as more of a traditional shooting guard with his spot-up shooting ability, but he undoubtedly becomes a special player dominating the ball. That's really the only way he justifies the high draft position. Russell is probably the closest thing to a next level passer we have seen in the draft since John Wall in 2010.

The assist rate and usage of Russell gives him a projection of all-around offense as being similar to the sophomore season of James Harden at Arizona State. Though they are different stylistically, the metrics of those two categories also closely resemble Derrick Rose at Memphis. Whereas Rose was a physical and speedy force in transition, Russell is about cooly finding space to drive or to find an open man.

Russell draws fouls at about half the rate Harden did in college, but he has the capacity to approximate a version of that layups, three-pointers and free throws approach, especially if he gets drafted by Sam Hinkie and the 76ers.

He doesn't possess the freak athleticism of Eric Bledsoe in any way, but their steal and block rates, along with ability to defend both guard positions are similar. Russell has great length with a height and standing reach that is similar to Dwyane Wade. Russell should be able to adequately defend the vast majority of NBA shooting guards and point guards. With Russell needing to use a high level of energy on the offensive end, it is likely he ends up being the type of player that will be assigned with defending the opposing team’s weakest backcourt player. Russell should be able to dial up the defense late in games and in the playoffs, but he will likely give inconsistent effort on defense in the long-term.

Russell plays with as much confidence as anyone in this draft and can evolve into a combination of Harden and Wall with an efficient NBA offense built around him. The skill-set and conviction will undoubtedly translate with the primary question of whether he can figure out how to play in that same way against the length and athleticism of NBA defenses. Russell rarely jumped out on film as playing with explosion, but he tested out at a 39-inch vertical and he should be able to gain the confidence on how to consistently play at the rim.

Russell is a basketball savant and you’re betting on him maxing out physically with a professional conditioning and diet regimen in order to reach that potential.