National Basketball Association

2016-17 Player Preview: Justise Winslow

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Justise Winslow is now entrenched as the starting small forward for the Miami Heat. Here we take a look at what to expect from him this season.

Justise Winslow enters his second NBA with the full confidence of the Miami Heat franchise behind him. As a rookie, Winslow played in 78 regular season games for eight starts. Veteran forwards Luol Deng and Joe Johnson were predominately the starters ahead of him. They are now both gone. Further, Dwyane Wade and the enormous presence he brought has departed. These vacancies represent big shoes to fill, for which Winslow seems right up to the challenge of accepting.

Winslow was selected with the 10th overall pick in the 2015 draft, which was widely lauded around the league as another Pat Riley gem. In pre-draft previews, Winslow was projected to land as high as pick four. The Boston Celtics were prepared to trade multiple draft picks to get in before Miami. And yet, here we are with Winslow entering this season as a vital cog of the Heat.

Winslow played one highly successful college season at Duke, culminating in winning the NCAA title. Sharing the court with fellow first-round picks in Jahlil Okafor and Tyus Jones, Winslow demonstrated the skill set which made so highly sought after. Coming from an elite winning culture, Winslow has all the trademarks of a future star.

Last Season/Breakout Game

Winslow’s statistical output for his debut season was very modest. Contributing 6.4 points per game and 5.2 rebounds per game in 28.8 minutes per game, his numbers certainly don’t jump off the page.

The shooting percentages were the greatest concern, with a 42.2 percent return overall from the field combined with a 27.6 percent clip from three-point range.

Whilst offensively he has much to work on, it was on the defensive end in which he excelled. Head coach Erik Spoelstra quickly showed tremendous faith in Winslow, matching him up on a variety of dangerous wingmen on the opposition.

On several occasions, Spoelstra would even play Winslow ahead of a seasoned veteran like Deng down the stretch of games, such was his level of defensive prowess even as a rookie. Such was Spoelstra’s faith in Winslow. He started the rookie at center twice in the second round of the playoffs due to injuries. Although just 6-foot-7 and 225 pounds, Winslow’s versatility and high basketball IQ enabled this move. Going forward, this represents an amazing option for the Heat in the new small-ball era.

Whilst Winslow excelled defensively, his offensive breakout game didn’t eventuate until mid-March against the Denver Nuggets. Coming off the bench, Winslow shot 8-of-13 from the field for 20 points. He also contributed three rebounds and two steals with no turnovers.

As can be seen in the above video, Winslow scored in a variety of ways. He hit his only three-point attempt from the corner, he nailed a couple of pull-ups, he caught passes on back-cuts and also combined his defensive prowess with his offence with a steal and breakaway three-point play.

He has shown he can do it. It’s finding this production consistently going forward that’s going to be the key for Winslow.

Mandatory Credit: Robert Mayer-USA TODAY Sports

Winslow’s strengths

As touched upon earlier, Winslow’s calling card is his defence. Despite entering the league at age 19, Winslow was already very physically developed. Also possessing high intelligence and athleticism, he has all the trademarks to become one of the leagues elite defenders. With the ability to defend multiple positions, Winslow allows the Heat tremendous flexibility when coming up against the elite teams in the league. Alongside the hopeful return of Chris Bosh and center Hassan Whiteside, the Heat have an outstanding defensive front court.

At this stage, Winslow’s greatest strength on the offensive end is finishing at the rim. In Winslow’s rookie season, 44.1 percent of his total field goals were attempted at the rim. He converted on 59.1 percent of these attempts, an exceptional return for a rookie. Further, Winslow’s overall numbers improved significantly in games where he attempted 10 or more field goals.

In these 8 games, his numbers were as follows, per Basketball Reference: 13.3 points per games; 6 rebounds per game; 48.9% field goals; 32.6 minutes per game.

The field goal percentage and points per game are clearly significant improvements. Also, Winslow’s turnovers were just 0.88 per game (1.2 season average) and his usage rate at 17.8 (up from 12.4) was still relatively low. The Heat posted a 6-2 record during the games whilst Winslow’s plus/minus average was +7.8 (+3.6 season average).

These last numbers indicate it will be advantageous for the Heat to get Winslow further involved in the offence. With the aggressive nature of point guard Goran Dragic now in control of the offence, the team can’t afford to have offensive liabilities. And these stats indicate Winslow can certainly make a contribution when given the chance.

Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Winslow’s weaknesses

Whilst scoring at the rim was a solid feature, Winslow shot just 27.6 percent from three-point range in his debut season. Considering his three-point attempts made up 28.9 percent of his total field goal attempts for the season, this is clearly an area of concern.

Getting more specific, catch-and-shoot field goals made up 31.7 percent of all his field goal attempts. Winslow hit just 30.6 percent of these, clearly another red flag for his offensive game. From the outside looking in, he does seem to be quite one-dimensional in terms of where he is proficient to score. When the opposition player plays off Winslow, it obviously puts increased stress on the other players on the floor to finish.

When looking at his numbers per 36 minutes, his numbers were 8.1 points per game and 6.5 rebounds per game. Whilst Winslow was just 19 years old for most of the season, this production on a per-minute basis is definitely on the lower end of the scale.

On a broader scale, Winslow attempted 253 field goals which were determined to be jump shots, per NBA.com. Making up 54.6 percent of his total shots, he hit just 30.8 percent of these.

Clearly, outside shooting is the glaring weakness which Winslow has shown after one season. Without the scoring punch this season of Wade, Deng and Johnson, the Heat are going to need some significant improvement in this area of his game.

Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

The 2016-17 Season

Winslow is going to form a key component of a new-look starting lineup for the Miami Heat. And if Chris Bosh and the team are unable to come to a solution, that would mean three out the five starting positions will feature a new player.

Winslow is now entrenched as the starting small forward, even receiving a glowing endorsement from Team President Pat Riley. The similarities between Winslow and San Antonio Spurs superstar Kawhi Leonard have been well documented.

Leonard posted averages of 7.9 points per game and 5.1 rebounds per game in his debut season, not too dissimilar to Winslow, although his shooting percentage was more advanced (49.3 percent overall). Leonard has advanced his shooting immensely. This past season, he produced 21.2 points per game on 50.6 percent from the field and 44.3 percent from three-point range.

Winslow should be encouraged also by the fact that Leonard was just a 29 percent three-point shooter in college. He also wasn’t selected until the 14th pick overall. Considering these modest beginnings, his swift improvement has been remarkable. And whilst Winslow won’t be expected to reach Leonard’s levels this coming season, a significant improvement can still be expected.

Spoelstra and the team will be hoping that Winslow can hit the ground running to commence the season. And if this recent news regarding his shooting is any indication, the Heat and Winslow could certainly prove a few doubters wrong this season.