NASCAR: Five Drivers Most Likely To Win At Kansas
May 7, 2016; Kansas City, KS, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series drivers Martin Truex Jr. (78) and Matt Kenseth (20) lead the field to restart the GoBowling.com 400 at Kansas Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
With a few Chase drivers already in trouble, NASCAR transitions to Kansas for the second race of the Round of 12. Take a look at five drivers who could win this weekend.
Last weekend’s race put a few of NASCAR’s biggest names in an early hole.
After multiple issues and a late wreck, we saw Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, Austin Dillon, Chase Elliott and Denny Hamlin all get taken out of the race either because of a car problem or because of damage in an accident.
With Charlotte behind us, the second race of the Round of 12 becomes the new item of focus. Kansas Speedway is one of the three 1.5-mile tracks that features two races in a season. Serving as a tri-oval, the speedway opened in 2001 and has hosted only 21 Cup Series races. With 1.5-mile tracks making up five out of the ten Chase races, Kansas is sure to serve as another important race.
There will be differing strategies as drivers near and below the cut line will be looking to win and advance but, as Brad Keselowski suggested, some of the drivers who finished well last Sunday can afford to “lay up” because of the big gap in points.
Jimmie Johnson won last weekend, meaning he is the only driver with a guaranteed spot in the Round of 8. Let’s take a look at a few drivers who could win this weekend.
All stats gathered from racing-reference.info.
Sep 9, 2016; Richmond, VA, USA; Sprint Cup Series driver Jimmie Johnson (48) during practice for the Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond International Raceway. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-USA TODAY Sports
The Favorite: Jimmie Johnson
Stats at Kansas:
Entering the weekend, Jimmie Johnson will have the more wins, top-5’s and top-10’s than any other active driver and he’ll be second to Matt Kenseth in laps led at the track.
His first two wins there came in 2008 and 2011 as he led over 120 laps in both races. Then his third victory came in last season’s spring race as he took advantage of a late restart. Johnson’s average finish of 9.2 is better than all active drivers except for Chase Elliott, but the young rookie has only raced at the track one time in his Cup Series career.
After three great races to open the Chase, Johnson finally avoided trouble on pit road and grabbed his first win since Fontana, which led him to his first trip past the Round of 12 under the current Chase format.
That provides a huge boost not only for him and the No. 48 team but also for Hendrick Motorsports, as the team suffered through a brutal summer. With Johnson not having to worry about that elimination race at Talladega, he can race with comfort and be aggressive.
Look for him to take command again this weekend. Jimmie Johnson is your favorite heading into Kansas.
May 14, 2016; Dover, DE, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Kevin Harvick (4) during practice for the AAA 400 Drive For Autism at Dover International Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O
Contender No. 1: Kevin Harvick
Stats at Kansas:
Just like Johnson, Kevin Harvick has been a contender at Kansas over the past few seasons.
His most impressive streak began back in 2013 as he finished 12th before earning his first and only win at the track after leading 138 laps. Over the next five races, he earned three second-place finishes and led a total of 254 laps.
But Harvick’s recent success isn’t the main reason why I believe he’ll be a contender this weekend, it’s how he’s responded to trouble in the Chase before. As we know, he’s competed for a championship at Homestead both seasons that the current Chase format has been in use, but it’s how he got there that stands out.
Last season, he stood on the edge of elimination and earned a dominating win at Dover where he led 355 of 400 laps. At Talladega, he was in position to be eliminated again but made a controversial move to save his season. Then earlier in this year’s Chase, he finished 20th at Chicagoland and went below the cut line before winning the next weekend in New Hampshire.
This past weekend at Charlotte, we saw Harvick exit the race with 183 laps left and finish 38th. If 2015 and 2016 have taught us anything, it’s that he’ll be aggressive at Kansas on Sunday.
Aug 19, 2016; Bristol, TN, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Matt Kenseth (20) during practice for the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports
Contender No. 2: Matt Kenseth
Stats at Kansas:
With four top-10’s finishes, including three top-5’s and two second-place finishes, Matt Kenseth has been one of the best Chase drivers so far.
This weekend, he should be in for another good race, as he tends to run well at Kansas. Both of his wins at the track came back-to-back as he won the Chase race in 2012 and the spring race in 2013, leading 78 laps and 163 laps respectively.
Last season he finished sixth in the spring race and led 153 laps in the Chase race. While he looked like he was destined for a win, we all know what happened. Joey Logano spun Kenseth in the final laps of the race, leading to a 14th-place finish. Earlier this season, Kenseth came right back and finished fourth at the track.
It seems like Kenseth is certainly going to win a race at some point in the Chase and he nearly pulled one off last weekend before being passed by Jimmie Johnson on the final restart. Watch for the driver of the No. 20 car to be in contention again this weekend.
May 13, 2016; Dover, DE, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup driver Kyle Busch (18) during practice for the AAA 400 Drive For Autism at Dover International Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O
Contender No. 3: Kyle Busch
Stats at Kansas:
Kyle Busch is the defending Cup Series champion but four straight top-10’s to open the Chase hasn’t really captured anyone’s attention. He’s putting together solid races, but the focus has been on other drivers.
Heading into Kansas, Busch will be looking for more of the magic he found there earlier this season. Before the spring race that he won by leading 69 laps, Busch was winless at Kansas. He had put together two top-5’s in 2015, but had registered only two top-10’s in the other 14 starts of his career there.
However, as I mentioned before, he got the job done a few months back. Busch is known as one of the best 1.5-mile drivers in the sport today. Since 2014 he has won ten races and five of them have come at such tracks.
By taking that into account and remembering the fact that he’s already won four races this season, it’s easy to believe Busch will be near the front again on Sunday.
Apr 23, 2016; Richmond, VA, USA; Sprint Cup Series driver Kasey Kahne (5) during practice for the Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond International Raceway. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-USA TODAY Sports
The Underdog: Kasey Kahne
Stats at Kansas:
Kasey Kahne has struggled over the past couple of years. We know that. But ever since Darlington, he’s been on quite the run.
Kahne suffered through that bad summer period for Hendrick Motorsports but has found something to work with here in the past six races. He earned top-10 finishes at Darlington (7th), Richmond (6th), Chicagoland (7th) and Loudon (9th) before finishing 12th at Dover.
Then he got right back to it last weekend at Charlotte–arguably his best track–and earned a third-place finish, which was his best of the season so far.
Kansas hasn’t been a great track for him, but he has earned five top-5’s in his last ten races there. He hasn’t gotten out front too much but he’s certainly found a way to put together solid days.
It seems as if Kasey Kahne and the No. 5 team have found some of the speed that the rest of HMS has been working with in the Chase. Watch for him to break up the Chase cars in the top-10 yet again this weekend.
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