NASCAR: Five Drivers Most Likely To Win At Dover
May 15, 2016; Dover, DE, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Kyle Larson (42) leads on a restart during the AAA 400 Drive For Autism at Dover International Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O
The first elimination race of the 2016 Chase is approaching as NASCAR moves to Dover for the final race in the Round of 16. Take a look at five drivers who could win on Sunday.
The Round of 16 began at Chicagoland, where Martin Truex Jr. won. Then, last weekend, we saw Kevin Harvick win at New Hampshire. Now, NASCAR is heading to Dover for the first elimination race of 2016.
Dover has provided us with two exciting elimination races in the first two years of the new Chase format. In 2014 Jeff Gordon made it to Victory Lane while 2015 saw Harvick dominate, but we’ve also seen notable drivers be eliminated in the first round, like Kurt Busch and Jimmie Johnson.
Dover provides an interesting situation for drivers. As one of the shortest tracks in the circuit, there’s often not much room to operate in if an accident breaks out. We saw that during the May race this season, when Johnson caused a big pileup after a problem on the restart.
With that in mind, you’ll see a lot of drivers stay conservative this weekend. If they are above the cut line and look to be moving on, they’ll stay where they’re at and won’t be too aggressive in fear of an accident.
Jamie McMurray, Austin Dillon, Tony Stewart and Chris Buescher are the four drivers in danger of being eliminated this weekend but anyone from Kyle Larson (12th) to Brad Keselowski (3rd) could fall below the line should they suffer from a mechanical issue or be involved in a wreck.
Let’s take a look at five drivers who could win this weekend at Dover.
All stats gathered from racing-reference.info.
Apr 23, 2016; Richmond, VA, USA; Sprint Cup Series driver Matt Kenseth (20) during practice for the Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond International Raceway. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-USA TODAY Sports
The Favorite: Matt Kenseth
Stats at Dover:
If Matt Kenseth had a few more wins at Dover, he would be right in the conversation with Jimmie Johnson as the best driver to ever race at the track.
He currently has three wins there (2006, 2011, 2016). Kenseth has had great days at the track, like the Chase race in 2006, when he led 215 laps, but all three of his wins have come after leading no more than 83 laps. His most recent win came earlier this season as he held off late charges from Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott to secure a victory and a berth in the Chase.
Heading into Sunday’s race, he’ll have more top-5’s and top-10’s than every driver on the track but Jeff Gordon. He’s finished in the top-10 in 17 out of his last 23 races at the track.
This weekend, Kenseth will have momentum on his side. He’s already won a race at Dover this season, plus he led 105 laps last weekend and finished second. While he only needs a solid finish to make it to the Round of 12, he’ll have a win on his mind.
Matt Kenseth is the favorite heading into Dover.
Sep 25, 2016; Loudon, NH, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup driver Jimmie Johnson during the New England 300 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
Contender No. 1: Jimmie Johnson
Stats at Dover:
We all know what Jimmie Johnson has done at Dover. He calls it his favorite track and it’s shown as he’s easily the greatest driver to ever race there.
Johnson has put up some incredible stats at Dover. First of all, he’s won there ten times. Only four other drivers in NASCAR history have won at least ten races at a track: Dale Earnhardt, Richard Petty, Darrell Waltrip and David Pearson (via NASCAR.com).
He’s put up three back-to-backs at the track while leading over 100 laps in 13 races and over 200 laps in seven races. In fact, from 2009 to 2014, he led at least 143 laps in all but just one race.
His average finish of 9.6 is the best among active drivers not counting drivers like Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney who have raced at the track five times or less.
It’s been a struggle for Johnson this season, but he is a position where he just needs a good finish to advance in the Chase.
Last season, he suffered from a mechanical problem that ended up eliminating him from the Chase and earlier this season, he had trouble on a restart, which caused a massive pileup. That was the first time he had ever had two consecutive races at Dover with finishes outside of the top-20.
Look for him to rebound and contend for the win this weekend.
Sep 25, 2016; Loudon, NH, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup driver Joey Logano during the New England 300 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
Contender No. 2: Joey Logano
Stats at Dover:
Joey Logano has had a quiet 2016 season. He has just one win all year long, and besides Chicagoland, hasn’t been in contention for a win in quite some time. So why would he be considered a contender at Dover?
The answer to that question revolves around the fact that he seems to elevate his racing whenever NASCAR visits short tracks. A third of Logano’s 15 career wins have come at such tracks and he’s shown his ability to grind through tough days. For example, he spent most of last week’s race at New Hampshire a lap down, but rebounded for an 11th-place finish.
His stats at Dover are certainly not flashy, as he’s led a total of only three laps there in his Cup Series career, but seven of his last nine races at the track have resulted in top-10 finishes.
We’re still waiting to see the Joey Logano of years past this season, and we could very well see him put together a nice race this weekend. This was the time of year when he really got going back in 2015.
Expect Logano to stay near the front of the pack on Sunday.
Sep 25, 2016; Loudon, NH, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup driver Martin Truex Jr competes during the New England 300 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
Contender No. 3: Martin Truex Jr.
Stats at Dover:
Dover will always be a special place for Martin Truex Jr. Back in 2007, he earned his first Cup Series win by leading 216 of 400 laps at the track that day.
Truex has had a recent surge at Dover lately. Since the 2014 season, he’s finished every race inside eleventh place and has led a total of 178 laps at the track. He looked like a contender back in May before he got caught up in wreck, however, he still rebounded to finish ninth.
We’ve seen a breakout year from Truex. He’s having the best season of his career and continues to look like one of the top drivers in the sport today. His last four finishes are as follows: 1st, 3rd, 1st and 7th and he’s led a total of 394 laps throughout the stretch.
Truex will be competing in the Round of 12 as his win at Chicagoland clinched his spot, but with the year he’s having, he’s certainly not going to take a day off. I imagine we’ll see him leading again this weekend and he could be in position to earn his fourth win this season.
Sep 25, 2016; Loudon, NH, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup driver Kyle Larson during the New England 300 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
The Underdog: Kyle Larson
Stats at Dover:
Kyle Larson, like Truex, is having a breakout year of his own. He earned his first Cup Series win this season and has elevated his racing here in the past month or so.
Since Indianapolis back in July, Larson has six top-10 finishes in nine races with one of those serving as a win and three others serving as top-5’s. In that span he’s led 138 laps which was almost as much as he had led in his past three seasons combined (169).
But let’s focus on his racing at Dover. Larson has competed there five different times in the Cup Series with finishes of 11th, 6th, 3rd, 9th and 2nd, giving him an average finish of 6.2.
Earlier in the season, he led 85 laps at the track and nearly got past Matt Kenseth late to win. That served as the race that really got his season moving as he had just two top-10’s prior.
Larson was a threat to win back in May and he’ll be the first driver above the cut line come Sunday. We’ll likely see him in contention again this weekend.
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