For Kasey Kahne and the other six drivers ahead of him in the point standings, congratulations, you should all be locked into the Chase.
The case for the security of the top three drivers' — Tony Stewart, Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon — is simple. Currently, 238 points separate fourth-place Kurt Busch from Gordon. Monday's winner Denny Hamlin swapped positions with Carl Edwards. The drivers, who are fifth and sixth in the standings, are 38 and 48 points back, respectively.
All but one of the top six drivers qualified for the Chase last season. Kahne's only Chase appearance came in 2006. After two years outside of the Chase, the No. 9 Budweiser Dodge needed a new approach.
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Kahne is currently 180 points — a full race worth of points — ahead of 13th-place Kyle Busch. But Kahne, who was also seventh in points at this juncture last season, knows how quickly the points can shuffle with a blown engine or a wreck such as the plights that hit the No. 9 Dodge last summer at Michigan and Bristol.
"I don't feel super confident but I definitely feel good where I'm sitting right now," Kahne said. "If we keep this up we'll be in good shape. But things can happen so easily by your own error or just racing situations. That's how racing goes.
"I'll feel real good if we have a big lead going into Richmond and don't have to worry about it."
Kahne had two wins before the 2008 Chase. It didn't matter. The bonus points never came into play in the postseason. After Kahne's engine failed at Michigan and he was taken out by Casey Mears at Bristol, he dropped to 14th in the point standings and had no chance of recovering with two races remaining in the regular season.
No wonder many teams have altered their strategy to race for points and not for the wins. If the wins come, certainly it's a bonus. But for many teams the risks just outweigh the rewards.
As much as sponsors love the exposure guaranteed with a win, if a driver doesn't qualify for the Chase he becomes persona non grata over the final 10 races of the season.
"(The Chase) is what it's all about in NASCAR, (what) each one of our teams and everybody focuses so hard on," Kahne said. "Winning is big and once you get into the Chase you need those bonus points, but you definitely have to make the Chase and do whatever you need to get in there."
Juan Pablo Montoya finished second to Denny Hamlin on Monday at Pocono. He currently trails Kahne by just 11 points after advancing two positions to eighth in the standings. Kahne admitted he "took Juan's chance away from winning" after the two drivers collided following the final restart. But Montoya, who said the car didn't suffer any damage from the contact, gathered himself up and refused to overdrive the car for the win.
