When you look at the title of this week’s column, you probably think I am referring to the hit TV series back in the mid-'80s with Don Johnson as Detective Sonny Crockett. Actually I’m not, although ironically our last race of the season is down in Florida.
What I am referring to is the immense pressure Denny Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick are facing this weekend.
The vise (vise/vice — get it?) I am talking about has been getting tighter and tighter on those three drivers. These men going into the race Sunday are under a lot of pressure.
I can speak from first-hand experience on this one. In 1979, I was in my first-ever championship battle and it was with Richard Petty. We went down to the last race of the season in Ontario, Calif., and I had a two-point lead. Up until that point, I had been the best car all year. I won the most races and the most money.
I did everything right you could do that year, except I beat myself. I let the pressure of battling the then six-time champion, Richard Petty, get to me. Richard had all this experience in the championship hunt. I never had been in the hunt, nor my team either. Collectively we just didn’t handle it well.
One of my favorite sayings has always been, “You have to lose one to win one,” and I was the embodiment of that in 1979. You don’t really realize what you’ve lost until it’s gone. I honestly don’t think myself or the entire No. 88 team realized the significance of winning a championship at the time. The ol’ King sure did, but naturally — he already had six of them in his pocket.
I entered the final race leading by two points. I finished eighth, but Richard finished fifth in the race. He ended up winning the championship by only 11 points. The disappointment was devastating. But I learned from the experience and two years later, driving for Junior Johnson, I used a different style and we were able to win three championships in the next five years.
See, Junior and the team had the championship experience, having won three consecutive championships with Cale Yarborough in the mid-'70s. I had the experience of losing a close one and so I knew what to do differently. Junior taught me how to win a championship.
For the first time in five years, Jimmie Johnson has a legitimate challenger for the crown.
That’s unchartered waters for the No. 48 team, but I think they have taken it pretty darn well. They’ve taken their licks, but at the same time crew chief Chad Knaus has made the proper adjustments when they were called for.
I’ve said it before, but the pit-crew swap was something he should have done before the Chase began, but he finally realized it and took action. I think you see the pressure of having an in-your-face competitor for the first time in the Chase for the Sprint Cup has caused them to rethink some of their strategies.
The pit-crew swap was one of those and it paid off. Jeff Gordon's crew pitting Johnson at Phoenix International Raceway was absolutely flawless. That was a good change. In years past, the No. 48 team has had the fastest car. That was then and this is now. Right now, Johnson doesn’t have the fastest car. He and his team have to rely on all their resources. That’s why the change was so important. They need to make up time in the pits because they were no longer the fastest car on the track.
Now in the case of the Kevin Harvick and the No. 29 Richard Childress Racing crowd, I don’t blame them in the least for being unhappy when everyone calls them the underdog. Being an underdog means you aren’t expected to win. That’s certainly not Kevin or crew chief Gil Martin’s style. They expect to win. I’ve known Gil for a long time and I am thrilled with the success he’s having.
Now Kevin is one of my best buddies. He’s so passionate. He’s a fighter and that’s what I love about him. He never gives up. I call him “the stirrer,” because if there’s anything going on that he can be involved in, well he’s right there. You saw it at Dover earlier in the Chase when Denny Hamlin made comments about Clint Bowyer's team. Well, Kevin took exception to that and roughed ol’ Denny up in practice that morning. That’s just the way Kevin is.
I love Harvick the Fighter, but I just don’t know if there is enough time left for him to overcome the other two drivers. Think about this, Denny could run second to Jimmie on Sunday and still lose the championship. If Jimmie leads the most laps and wins the race, there just isn’t anything Denny can do.
Can Johnson do that? I really don’t know. It’s questionable. That being said, if they could get the car comfortable for Jimmie and get a good setup under the car, well then you don’t know. Jimmie could roll off the grid Sunday, go out there, dominate the race and close out Hamlin.
If that were to happen, it would be a shame for the No. 11 team. They have had a fantastic year. Denny has impressed the heck outta me this season. He’s an emotional driver and wears his feelings on his sleeve. You saw how dejected he was Sunday after the race. They really thought they had that championship locked up. Having to stop for fuel Sunday cost them. It cost them dearly. It gave hope to Johnson's team.
Instead of pretty much closing things out as they hoped at Phoenix, now there’s the real possibility of Hamlin and his team losing the championship at Homestead. I don’t think that is something they were prepared for. It’s going to be interesting to see how they bounce back after the letdown at Phoenix.
So that’s a real interesting storyline to follow. Will they go to Homestead with their emotions in check? Let’s face it, Sunday after the race, Denny wasn’t happy with his crew chief, Mike Ford. Hamlin was way short on fuel while others were able to go the distance.
Hamlin and his team could easily go out and dominate Sunday. We’ve already seen them do it at Martinsville, Texas and as they were doing at Phoenix. They’ve got the whole package – fast car, great driver, awesome crew chief and pit crew. They just can’t afford any mistakes Sunday.
You have to believe Johnson's team is sitting there licking their chops. For the first time in the last five years, we are going to see how good that No. 48 team is. This is the first real challenge they’ve had in five years and I am curious to see how they handle the pressure. Are they going to rise to the occasion or struggle and let the championship slip away?
To me, the key is going to be qualifying on Friday. That’s a clear signal of how good their car is or isn’t. If Denny qualifies on the pole like we’ve seen him do, well that tells you they have a great car and are ready to race. If Jimmie qualifies back in the field, well that’s bad news for the No. 48. The car never seems to be where Jimmie wants it when they don’t qualify well. So qualifying poorly on Friday could spell doom for that team.
Now over to Harvick, well he never qualifies all that great. To put pressure on these other two guys, Kevin really needs to qualify up front. If he doesn’t, the problem is he will spend the majority of Sunday simply digging himself out of that hole of having to pass all those cars to get to the front. Kevin needs to be out front early leading the most laps and winning the race to have a shot.
So qualifying will set the stage for Sunday in my book. This is easily the most exciting championship battle I have seen in a long, long time. We’ve all wanted someone in the last five years to stand up and take it to the No. 48. We have it this year and it’s kept the Chase from being a snoozer.
If I have to make a pick, I will go with Johnson. Don’t lose sight that he’s our defending champion for the last four years. Like I always say, to be the champion you have to beat the champion. Can Hamlin and his team be a closer Sunday? They have the lead and they just need to finish the deal. They can’t have problems at the end of the race, like last Sunday, because it will literally cost you the championship this Sunday.
Will Kevin Harvick have a fast enough car to run with these other two? If he does, then he can be the spoiler. Trust me, nothing would make ol’ Happy Harvick any happier than coming from behind and taking the championship away from Denny and Jimmie.
I can’t wait to get to Homestead. I will be down there working for SPEED all weekend. I am excited to see who our champion is going to be because he definitely will have earned it.
Oh by the way
Congratulations to my buddy Carl Edwards on winning last Saturday and Sunday. He and I text each other a lot. I’ve said it before that if I was starting a team tomorrow, he would be my driver. I love his attitude and I love the way he competes. He is his own man and stands up to fight for what he believes is right. I like that a lot.
Those Roush Fenway cars are going to be tough at Homestead. They seem to have their chassis issues solved and those Ford FR9 motors sure are putting out some steam under the hood now. I look for them to be fighting for the win Sunday as we head into the offseason. Between Edwards, Matt Kenseth and Greg Biffle, I think they can get it done.
