Even though it took two extra days to get the race in, we once again had a fantastic finish at Atlanta Motor Speedway.
Until Mother Nature decided to rain things out, it was my belief we were going to see one of the biggest crowds there in a long, long time. I noticed the crowd there for the Nationwide race Friday night was probably one of the biggest they’ve had, too. It’s hard to believe with all the close finishes that place delivers, that we go there only one time a year, but, obviously, I understand the economics of it.
Although I feel bad for the fans and the folks that run Atlanta Motor Speedway, you still have to applaud NASCAR for finding a way to make it work. I know the teams and the fans appreciate NASCAR making their quick decision and not forcing everyone to hang around the track all day Monday, when actually the weather was worse than Sunday.
The track conditions during the race Tuesday were ever-changing. There were guys such as Kyle Busch who dominated early, but things just slipped away. Matt Kenseth was in that same boat.
I find it interesting that nine of the 12 Chase drivers finished in the top 10 at Atlanta. The only three who didn’t were Dale Earnhardt Jr., Ryan Newman and Kyle Busch.
Five Chase drivers who needed a good race and finish, got one. Tony Stewart, who is 10th in the points and trying to hold on to make the Chase, helped his cause immensely by finishing third. Kurt Busch, although already locked into the Chase, got a top-five finish. Carl Edwards, also locked into the Chase, got his first top-five finish in seven races.
Kevin Harvick and the No. 29 bunch finally stopped the bleeding and got a top-10 finish. Finally, there was Denny Hamlin. After a horrendous July and early August, he had his second consecutive good finish. It couldn’t come at a better time, as Hamlin is fighting to hold onto that final wild-card spot in the 2011 Chase.
Earnhardt Jr. had another mediocre race. Lucky for him, the ones who are chasing him to possibly knock him out of the Chase also floundered. This weekend, with Richmond being the last race before the Chase field is set, all Earnhardt has to do is finish the race 20th or better and he is locked into the Chase.
As I have said now for a couple weeks, unless Brad Keselowski is able to race his way into the top 10 in points — and, trust me, there are plenty of teams hoping he does — the top 10 for the 2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup Chase is pretty well set.
Keselowski is locked into the Chase regardless of whether he makes it into the top 10 in points. His three wins this year guarantee him a spot one way or another. Hamlin is still hanging in there with his one win this year for the second and final wild-card spot. The problem for Hamlin is he has to be looking over his shoulder Saturday night.
Here is where it gets really interesting. Such drivers as AJ Allmendinger, Clint Bowyer, Greg Biffle, Martin Truex Jr. and Kasey Kahne still have a shot at making the Chase. Granted, they need two things to fall into place Saturday night: One of those five drivers has to win the race, plus Keselowski has to get into the top 10 in points. If Keselowski moves up, then Hamlin also moves up and that opens another wild-card spot.
Actually, there are other scenarios out there, but it just reinforces what I have been saying all along: The changes NASCAR made for the 2011 season in the points and Chase format has created an unbelievable story. This is a story that I don’t think will be finished until we see the checkered flag Saturday night in Richmond.
Obviously, until they run the race, none of us can predict how this will all unfold. Who can predict a flat tire under green-flag conditions? Who can predict a tire letting go or your driver being caught up in someone else’s wreck? No one can.
Can we expect some surprises Saturday night? Well, this season has shown us with all the first-time winners that it can happen. With that said, knowing as well as Hamlin runs at Richmond, I would be surprised if our current top 12 Chase drivers change after the checkered flag.
Now, I am not saying it won’t or can’t happen. I am just saying I don’t think it will happen.
