So now we are down to it. Saturday night's race at Richmond will be the last one of our regular season. Once the checkered flag falls, our 2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup Chase field is set. Then it becomes a 10-race playoff for those 12 drivers ending at Homestead, Fla., in November.
While the majority of the field is set, there are still some “what-ifs” in the minds of Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Tony Stewart. Their mind-set has to be, “Don’t beat yourself.” If either one can get a top-10 finish Saturday night, it doesn’t matter what anyone does and both will be locked in. Really, when you boil it all down, it is simple math.
Now, the key is not getting caught up in someone else’s on-track stupidity. They also know they can’t control a flat tire while under green-flag racing. They can’t control a motor letting go. So the pressure is on. The reality is, if these guys are going to be serious contenders to win the 2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup championship, they should be able to handle the pressure.
But Denny Hamlin is in a different position. What he simply can’t afford is one of those guys chasing him who already has a win this year getting that second win at Richmond and also be in the top 20 in points. If that were to happen, Denny would get bumped out of the Chase because he has only one win this year.
That has to be Denny’s biggest concern. Denny can’t have a bad night while one of those guys who are trying to jump ahead of him goes out and wins the race. On the positive side of the equation for Denny is that the race is at Richmond. It’s his home track. He loves racing there and has won there before.
Atlanta pretty much sealed the fate for a lot of guys who were holding on to 2011 Chase dreams by a thread. Unfortunately, they didn’t step up when they needed to. Clint Bowyer had his misfortune Tuesday. Everyone by now has heard about his heated comments directed at Juan Pablo Montoya. That’s a storyline worth following because you have to wonder about Clint’s thoughts of paying Juan Pablo back.
As for the guys who are locked in, Saturday night is pretty much a free spin for them. They might gamble a little bit and try to notch another win. See, the importance there is the bonus points. After the checkered flag at Richmond, the 2011 Chase field is set, and for those drivers who are in the top 10 in points, each win they have accumulated is worth three points. For the two wild-card guys, they do not receive any bonus points for wins. So when the points are reset to start the Chase, three points could mean a lot to your total.
That’s why you are seeing Brad Keselowski fight until the final checkered flag in the regular season: He's trying to get himself into the top 10. So far in 2011, Brad has racked up three wins. That would mean he would receive nine bonus — but only if he can get in the top 10. So Brad will be trying to win the race Saturday night, get the most points possible and hope at the same time that Stewart stumbles so Brad could bump him from the top 10.
If Brad doesn’t make it into the top 10, the one thing he can’t do is focus on that and the lost bonus points. His mind-set must be, “Hey, I won three races during the regular season, so why not win three races in my first Chase?” I’ve said it before and I will keep saying it: Brad is someone those other 11 guys had better worry about in the Chase. He has everything to gain and nothing to lose because he wasn’t even supposed to be in the Chase this year.
If you look at where that No. 2 car came from earlier this year to where it is today, there is no doubt in my mind Penske Racing's No. 2 unit should share Team of the Year honors with Hendrick Motorsports' No. 24. While people always expect Jeff Gordon to be good every year, I think you would be hard-pressed to find anyone outside the Hendrick camp who expected Jeff and his team to be this good in 2011. I mean this team has become scary good and that should make those boys over on the No. 48 car pretty darn nervous. Unlike years past, we saw Jeff outrace Jimmie Johnson to the checkered flag on Tuesday in Atlanta. The teacher finally beat the student.
Now on the flip side of that, did you see Jimmie’s face after the race? It didn’t look like it sat too well with him. That could also be bad news for the competition. You know that old saying about “not poking the bear” —well, for the past five years, Jimmie has been the bear.
