DW: No 'Achy Breaky Parts' for Kevin Harvick this time
If you were like me Saturday night at Charlotte Motor Speedway, you must have felt you were watching a re-run from so many races this season. There was Kevin Harvick, out front and dominating the race. Like me, though, you probably were waiting for the other shoe to drop. You were probably saying to yourself, as I was, "OK, so what is going to happen this time to that No. 4 car to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory?"
That car has been, yes, freaky fast all season long, even clear back in January during Daytona testing all the way to Saturday night's race at Charlotte. That car wins poles, the car dominates races, but the poor guy only has three wins. While it might be freaky fast, it's also suffered from freaky events. Kevin probably could have had 13 wins by now if they hadn't had so many issues this season.
They've had tire problems, hub problems, oil-line problems, pit-road problems, ignition problems and even something as random as the tire changer hitting the valve stem instead of the lug nut and causing them to have a flat tire. They've been problem-plagued all season.
They couldn't have picked a better time to have the perfect night and seal the deal for once. The car was fast. They made solid pit stops with no mistakes. Kevin drove a smart race and they capitalized on all that. Could it have come at a better time? Now Kevin is locked into the next round of the Chase and goes into Talladega this weekend with the weight of the world lifted off his shoulders.
So Kevin joins Joey Logano as the only drivers that are locked into the third round. After Sunday's race at Talladega, four more drivers will kiss their 2014 Chase dreams goodbye as the Chase field is cut to only eight cars. Joey and Kevin are in but that leaves six slots to be decided. There are a million scenarios floating around out there of who could get in and who might be eliminated Sunday.
The simplest thing those other 10 drivers can do is win Sunday. The problem is there is only one winner. The problem for the other 10 drivers is the winner Sunday could be Joey or Kevin, too. Then it changes to how you are doing in the points. We all said when the Chase started, based on how the regular season had gone, that it would be a Team Penske versus Hendrick Motorsports battle for the championship.
When the checkered flag waves at Talladega Sunday afternoon, there is a really good chance that two of the four Hendrick drivers -- Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- plus one of the two Penske drivers -- Brad Keselowski -- will be eliminated. Jimmie and Dale have to win. They are so far behind in points that they really don't have any other choice because even a really good finish isn't going to help them.
Now Brad is in a little different boat. He might not have to win, but he'd have to have a top-five finish and hope that some of the other guys have some issues Sunday. Brad is 19 points out of eighth place, so he is going to have to have a little bit of help.
Matt Kenseth is sitting there in ninth place just one point out of the eighth-place cutoff. So Matt could go either way. Matt has had some awesome cars on the superspeedways these last couple years so maybe Sunday that will play into his hands. So of the four guys who are in jeopardy -- Matt, Brad, Jimmie and Dale Jr. -- Matt probably has the best chance of advancing into the next round.
Kasey Kahne is sitting in that magical eight spot but like I mentioned, he's only in eighth by one point over Matt. So Kasey is in the Danger Zone in my book. Denny Hamlin sits in the seventh spot and he looks to be in pretty good shape to advance. So to me, what looked like was going to be a Penske vs. Hendrick battle could be turning into a Penske versus Joe Gibbs Racing versus Kevin Harvick battle.
Like Kevin Harvick, those Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas seem to have all their problems fixed and they are peaking at the right time. Joey Logano has been on fire all year long. I will be stunned if he isn't one of the drivers in the final four at Homestead in mid-November racing for the championship. I feel the same way about Kevin. So those are two drivers of the four that I think we'll see racing for the championship.
The question then becomes who will be the other two in the final four? Combined, Brad, Jimmie and Dale Jr. have 11 wins this season, yet they are on the outside looking in and facing elimination Sunday. Who would have ever foreseen that? Maybe they used up all their racing luck in the 11 wins and making the Chase, because they sure have been having problems of late. You simply can't have problems in the Chase, or your championship hopes will go up in smoke.
Ryan Newman is sitting in fourth place. Ryan is consistent as the day is long, but he just doesn't have any wins this season. In fact, he and Matt Kenseth are the only Chase drivers who don't have a single victory so far this season. I do think that Ryan probably will make it into the third round because he is sitting pretty well in points. While I'm not saying it won't happen, I am saying it's hard to imagine Ryan making it into the final four at Homestead with a shot at the championship with no wins. I just think it's going to come down to Ryan winning a race if he wants a shot at the 2014 championship.
I could give you a million scenarios about what has to happen for each driver on Sunday. There are so many out there it will make your head spin. What I can tell you for certain is at the end of 188 laps Sunday at Talladega Superspeedway, the picture will be a heckuva lot clearer for the eight drivers who advance to Round Three.
I know there are some fans out there who believe because of what happened at Charlotte Saturday night that we will see some type of payback this Sunday by certain drivers at Talladega. Trust me -- that simply isn't going to happen. The place is too big and too fast, plus, quite honestly, the drivers are smarter than that. Now in two weeks at Martinsville, well, all bets are off then. That's where you probably are going to see some paybacks delivered.
You just watch Sunday and if Denny, Brad and Matt are running 1, 2 and 3, well, you would see them working together. There wouldn't be a single thought of payback from what happened at Charlotte. They simply aren't going to wreck each other on purpose. They will work together to get the best possible finish they can. That's the way drivers think when it comes to the big, fast superspeedway tracks.
Fans have been asking me about my feelings on the post-race fight Saturday night at Charlotte. I think what we saw is a product of this new Chase format. What do you expect after a long night of racing and a few drivers'0 frustration levels had peaked? I never believe in using race cars for retaliation. I don't condone fighting, but I sure would rather see them go toe to toe at each other outside the race car than inside the race car.
It's the heat of the battle and the heat of the moment. It's simply the pressure of the championship Chase boiling over as Sunday another four drivers will be eliminated. It's part of competition and desire to be the best. These guys are professionals. They don't do it every week, but with racing as hard as it is and the season coming to a close, you are going to have those moments when emotions take over. It's simply human nature.
I hope NASCAR gives them a break, because NASCAR can't have it both ways. I really don't want to see NASCAR hand out a bunch of fines and suspensions. I'm all for pulling them up in the truck and having a word of prayer with them, but I sure don't want NASCAR to go overboard with this. You can't capitalize on "boys have at it" and tell them it's okay to show their emotions, then in the same breath penalize them for when they do. I just don't feel good about that.
So if NASCAR says "boys have at it," well, ol' DW says "boys will be boys," and I think we saw that in spades Saturday night at Charlotte Motor Speedway. Now it's back to Talladega and our last restrictor-plate race of the year with everything on the line for four drivers on Sunday. Like I mentioned earlier, when that race is over, there will be four drivers who will be eliminated while eight others get to continue onward in their quest for the 2014 NASCAR Sprint Cup championship.
VIDEO: Hamlin, Keselowski chase one another in Charlotte garage
