One of the really bright spots in 2011 is this new points system.
In the past, the 10th spot in the points this late in the season was almost guaranteed to make the Chase. That had a tendency to make this summer stretch somewhat boring and anticlimatic. Well, guess what — those days are long gone.
These next eight racing are going to be intense and dramatic. There are some surprise players who may change the complexion of the 2011 Chase. There are young faces like David Ragan, Regan Smith and Brad Keselowki, who if they play their cards right could possibly knock a familiar face or two out of the Chase.
Through half the season, familiar names like Clint Bowyer, Juan Pablo Montoya and Tony Stewart, while performing well, haven’t won a race. Now there are only eight races left to get it done. The pressure is definitely intensifying.
And there is a possibility that all 12 slots for the 2011 Chase will be filled with guys who have won at least one race. That has never happened in the history of the Chase format. Currently there are only two cars in the Top 10 that haven’t won a race yet. The wild-card slots are going to come down to the guys outside the Top 10, but inside the Top 20 and have a win.
I just really think it is exciting. Winning has taken a more important role than ever this year, and it would be really cool to have all 12 Chase spots filled by drivers who have won at least once.
There have been 12 different race winners this year, which has been great. So far this year, two drivers — Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch — have three wins each, and there have been three first-time winners in Trevor Bayne, Regan Smith and David Ragan.
The race to Richmond is going to be exciting to watch. Actually, I also see Richmond, the last race before the Chase field is set, being a pivotal race in determining who is in and who is out. I still maintain there are going to be some really big names, when it is all said and done, on the outside looking in. All this excitement and it’s not even the Chase yet. How great is that?
I see Paul Menard and his Richard Childress Racing team as the next one on my radar that can possibly get their first win of the year. If the team were to do that, it would muddy the Chase waters even more. After Paul, I am also keeping my eye on Marcos Ambrose and AJ Allmendinger. There are some really good races tracks coming up for both these guys.
Juan Pablo Montoya must be thrilled about the upcoming races at Indianapolis and Watkins Glen. Montoya runs well at Indy, and of course he is an awesome road-course driver. If Juan can win the Brickyard 400 in a couple weeks and then the “The Glen” in mid-August, he would be a lock for the Chase, leaving just one wild-card spot.
So I believe there are a lot of surprises out there just waiting to happen. I expect them to pop up on the way to that final race before the Chase at Richmond. I also expect a surprise or two at Richmond.
With so many competitive teams this year, no one knows yet just how it will end, but it will be exciting to watch it unfold.
