As the Chase for the Sprint Cup nears, pressure builds on those teams trying to get into the field. For some, Pocono Raceway beams like the light at the end of the tunnel — a chance to gain some needed ground in a last-gasp effort to break into the field.
For others, though, Pocono is a nemesis in their path — a place that must be figured out and figured out quickly if a fleeting shot at making the 12-driver field is to be captured.
As with several of the tracks that the series has visited in recent weeks, this is a place where the trophy has generally been hoisted by the men now in contention for the 2010 championship. You have to go back to 2002 to find a Pocono race won by a driver not currently in Chase contention. That year, the races were won by Bill Elliott, now driving on a part-time basis for Wood Brothers Racing, and Dale Jarrett, now retired from the racing side of the sport.
Since then, Denny Hamlin has won four times at the track. Tony Stewart, Kurt Busch and Carl Edwards have each won twice. Jeff Gordon, Kasey Kahne — who already has only, at best, an outside shot of making the field — and Ryan Newman have also won in that span.
The 2.5-mile track is the most unique on the Sprint Cup circuit, with its triangular shape offering three unusual turns and differing straightaway lengths. Drivers and crew chiefs work to find the most balanced setup at a track where each turn offers distinct characteristics and no car seems to run at a premium through all three.
And now it comes with only six races — six shots — left in the run to the Chase. Kahne (17th in the standings, 156 points outside the top 12), Jamie McMurray (16th, 151 points back) and Ryan Newman (15th, 147 points back) face a fierce battle if they are to make the field. In fact, the gap between those inside the top 12 and those outside of it is widening.
Heading into last weekend’s race at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, five drivers were within 120 points of Clint Bowyer. That number has dwindled to two.
Hendrick Motorsports’ Mark Martin is 13th in the standings, 62 points behind 12th-place Bowyer, while his teammate, Dale Earnhardt Jr., is 14th and 93 points out of the field.
How much impact can Pocono have on the Chase fortunes of those within 160 points of the cutoff? Let’s take a look at those who could really gain this weekend:
Mark Martin: In his long career, Martin has yet to win at Pocono, but he seems to have the place fairly well figured out. In 47 starts there, he has 32 top-10 finishes, 19 of them top-fives, for an average finish of 11.1. He has five top-10 finishes in his past seven starts there, though his record was marred when he was caught in an incident at the track earlier this year.
Carl Edwards: The Roush Fenway Racing driver seems to have taken to this track rather quickly from his debut season. In 11 Pocono starts, he has a pair of wins and an average finish of 13.3. Edwards and his Bob Osborne-led team seem to have figured out what ailed them and are steadily making strides. Edwards heads to Pocono with three consecutive top-10 finishes, including a runner-up performance at Chicagoland Speedway two weeks ago.
Tony Stewart: Obviously, Stewart is one to watch anywhere the series heads in this stretch of the season. While his team is still laboring to manage its consistency a little better, Stewart has gained ground in the standings in recent weeks and has opened up a 160-point margin on the 13th-place driver — something that should be good enough to put him in the Chase, barring a catastrophic series of setbacks. Pocono provides some comfort against that type of setback as Stewart has two wins at the track. His 17 top-10 finishes, eight of them top-fives, have him carrying an average finish of 11.9 into this race.
For others, this could be a long weekend. Not running well at Pocono is a dismal experience. With the Chase on the line, which could lead to gambles in areas such as fuel strategy — a real gamble at a place like Pocono where running out of fuel at the wrong spot on the track can be devastating. Here’s a look at some who have traditionally struggled at the track:
Kasey Kahne: A winner at Pocono in 2008, Kahne returns to the track this time with a team showing increased consistency and confidence this season. He has four top-five finishes in his past six races, including a pair of runner-up runs. At Pocono, Kahne has a win to his credit. He has five top-10 finishes, three of them top-fives. Don’t be fooled by his average finish of 16.4, though. Kahne’s recent surge suggests a much better performance this weekend.
Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Earnhardt Jr. has enjoyed a bit of a roller-coaster series of runs at Pocono. In 21 starts there, he has six top-10 finishes, five of them top-fives, with an average finish of 17.5. He has a top finish of 12th in his past four races at the track, a stretch that includes a pair of races with finishes of 27th or worse.
Jamie McMurray: Like Kahne, McMurray is holding onto a chance at a Chase berth by a slim thread. Boosted by his win in last Sunday’s Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, McMurray still heads to a track where he has found setbacks in the past. In 15 starts there, McMurray has only a trio of top-10s. He brings an average finish of 21.7, one not aided by recent finishes of 36th and 20th in the last pair of races there. Still, it’s hard to count out someone having the kind of season that McMurray is.
