So here we are. One race to go, four drivers in contention for the title. And any one of them could do it. The manner in which this season has twisted and turned, you wouldn’t want to discount a single one. Truly, this has been one of the greatest F1 seasons, if not the best.
But there are many within the paddock who question Red Bull’s sanity in not choosing one of its drivers over the other. Had they done so, this championship would likely have been over long ago. Thank goodness for all of us, then, that it has not.
That Red Bull has the best car of the season is in no doubt. The simple fact that almost every team up and down the pit lane has questioned at some point whether Red Bull were running something illegal shows what a good job it has done. Team principal Christian Horner told the world from day one that he took such questions to be backhanded compliments because if his rivals were so worried and so confused about how his car was so quick, then it meant his boys were the ones to beat and that his team was doing something that nobody else could even understand.
Time and time the strict FIA tests were altered to increase the challenge placed on Red Bull, and time after time it passed with flying colors. Nobody could find anything dodgy. It was simply an insanely good car.
And yet it has won just eight of the 18 races thus far held in 2010. That’s nowhere near the kind of form McLaren showed back in 1988 when it took 15 of 16 race wins with a driver pairing who were allowed to fight for the title and ultimately ran wheel to wheel all season long.
The Red Bull Renault has shown itself to be fallible, but the drivers have also not helped each other. Turkey was by far the most obvious example, but today at the team there exists a tremendous tension between Sebastian Vettel and Mark Webber. It was always going to get this way with neither favored over the other, as each has grown to resent the other for taking away an element of the backing and support.
For Vettel, it is a case of him having been a Red Bull driver for his entire career. He’s the chosen one, he’s the career Bull and if anyone is going to win the drivers’ title for the team then he feels it should be him. But on the flip side Webber is the one who has done, perhaps, the better job of the two this season. He has led the championship for longer, he has made fewer mistakes and he has felt, perhaps unduly, that he has been sold short by the team. The wing debacle at Silverstone and recent comments he has made to the press certainly give the impression that he is being treated unfairly.
But in that sits another reason why Vettel and Webber aren’t getting along. The team has always said it will play the equality card. And yet here is Webber, berating the team and claiming that it's doing nothing to help him. For Vettel, that’s akin to somebody slagging off his parents. The team is his family.
It’s not too dissimilar to the manner in which Lewis Hamilton and Fernando Alonso’s relationship fell apart at McLaren in 2007. Alonso, as the more experienced driver, expected the team to back him above the cocky youngster. Perhaps Webber expected the same this year at Red Bull. But both Vettel and Hamilton had grown up under the guidance and protection of the teams at which they found themselves. Any negative reaction by the Johnny-come-lately, to the manner in which the team operated, would simply solidify the loyalty of the young buck to the team. In turn, that led to the outsider being marginalized even more, as the team strengthened its support for the youngster it had always known, and encircled him with care and adoration.
Back in 2007 McLaren missed out on the drivers’ championship because of the manner in which it handled the relationship between its drivers. In 2010 the very same result could befall Red Bull, and once again it will be a Ferrari driver who benefits. Having seen for himself the frustrations that Webber is no doubt feeling today, Alonso could be forgiven for allowing himself a wry smile. Call it karma, if you will. I’m sure he might be tempted.
Some people have said that Alonso won’t deserve the title if he takes it in Abu Dhabi, but I wouldn’t agree with that. A lot was made of the Ferrari team orders scandal in Germany when teammate Felipe Massa let Alonso pass, a move that later cost Ferrari a $100,000 fine.
Let’s be honest: if Alonso takes the championship by less than the seven-point difference between first and second position then Ferrari will have been completely justified in its decision because without it the team would have missed out on both championships. If Alonso wins the championship by more than seven points, then whether he’d finished first or second in Germany wouldn’t have made a blind bit of difference. A championship is not won in a single race. It is won due to a consistently impressive run of results. Alonso has more wins than any other driver in 2010, and all in a car which nobody expected to be competing regularly for victories.
Moving into Abu Dhabi there are now many fascinating permutations for the championship, but one thing remains clear – there will be no team orders from Red Bull. Horner has said that his drivers will be given no instructions, and if one of them wishes to do the honorable thing, then that is up to them.
The onus, then, seems to be on Sebastian Vettel.
Of course, everyone expects Red Bull to run away and hide in Abu Dhabi, and if last year’s result is repeated then Vettel could be expected to be at the front.
Now, let’s say that the finishing order is the same as it was in Brazil, with Vettel leading home Webber and Alonso. In this case, Alonso would be crowned champion with 261 points from the Red Bull duo tied with 256.
Would Vettel do the decent thing and let his teammate though to take victory? We may well learn much about Vettel’s character in such a moment. There are some who think that if he doesn’t let Webber though he will forever be tainted with an opinion that he is selfish. There are others who believe that to hang on for the win no matter the result behind would simply show his strength of character, for just as the likes of Rubens Barrichello and Massa have been panned for gifting their team-mates wins, so might Vettel be. And would he really want Webber to win the title if he can’t do it himself? Surely Vettel wants to be Red Bull’s first F1 world champion?
Would he let Webber through? Furthermore, if he let Webber through, might he make a “mistake” and also allow Alonso through? Vettel is certainly more friendly with Alonso than he is with Webber. It’s a tantalizing prospect.
And what makes it even more fascinating is that we won’t know what is likely to happen until the very last lap. And here’s why.
If Vettel wins, he will have 256 points. Let’s say Webber comes second and would also 256 points and Alonso comes fifth also have 256 points. In this case, Vettel would be crowned champion on countback as Vettel and Alonso would each have five wins, two second places and three thirds, but the German has outscored the Spaniard 3-2 on fourth-place results. If Alonso is further back than fifth, Vettel is crowned champion. And there’s no way that Vettel would hand over that chance before he absolutely has to. If any gentlemanly agreement is to be played out between the Red Bull drivers, it will be on the last corner, on the last lap.
The permutations are fascinating and complicated. And neither one is necessarily going to play out as we expect.
Hell, the way this season’s gone I wouldn’t be surprised if Vettel and Webber take each other out at the start, Alonso’s engine goes pop and Hamilton roars home in first and is crowned 2010 world champion.
We’ve seen stranger things this year.
Will Buxton joined SPEED as a Formula One grid reporter just before the start of the 2010 season. The founding Editor of GPWeek magazine, Buxton served as the GP2 press officer from 2004 to the end of the 2007 season, and was sole communications/media representative for 2006 and 2007. The native of Great Britain has been covering single-seater racing (F1, GP2, F2 and F3) since 2002.
