Major League Baseball

Who will make the defining move?

Published Jul. 24, 2011 1:00 a.m. ET

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Forget what the schedule says. The American League pennant will be decided in the final week of July, not the middle of October.

There isn’t a dominant team in baseball’s best league — at least not right now. But a pitching trade or two could change that.

Of course, it was that way last year. The Rangers dealt for Cliff Lee. The Yankees didn’t. For that reason, as much as any other, the Rangers went to the World Series.

Once again, the balance of power is there for the shifting, with general managers Theo Epstein, Brian Cashman and Jon Daniels poised at the rudders of their respective franchises.

Epstein’s Red Sox, winners of four in a row, currently hold the AL’s best record. They are 62-37, the franchise’s best 99-game mark since 1979 — a considerable achievement, really, when considering the team has won five division titles and two World Series in the interim.

At various stages of the season, the Red Sox have looked like the best team in the major leagues. And as the Rays stencil the red letters on their FOR SALE sign, Boston is all but assured of a remarkable sixth postseason berth in eight seasons under Terry Francona.

But even while Adrian Gonzalez rattles the Green Monster on seemingly every other at-bat, and Dustin Pedroia hits around .400 this month, there are flaws that could bring about an early postseason exit.

The Red Sox rotation entered the week with 586 innings pitched, the fourth-lowest total in the major leagues. Each member of the season-opening starting five — Jon Lester, John Lackey, Clay Buchholz, Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka — has missed at least one start for health reasons. With the exception of Beckett, all of them have spent at least some time on the disabled list.

The organization is known for its prudence in handling pitchers, frequently budgeting extra recovery time in order to keep them healthy. Yet, this season’s rotation has been neither durable nor particularly effective. Were it not for trusty Tim Wakefield, the Red Sox would have flipped the switch on a full-out pitching panic around the first of May.

Will the rotation be better in the second half? Maybe, but I’m skeptical. While Lester is scheduled to return from the DL on Monday, Buchholz has been out for more than a month because of a back strain that was supposed to heal in two weeks. Beckett is an ace again, but Lackey’s ERA over the past two months is close to 5.00.

Andrew Miller, while a nice story, has more walks than innings pitched over his last three starts. Wakefield turns 45 next week. And a team hasn’t won the World Series with a 45-year-old in its starting rotation since . . . well . . . 2008 (Philadelphia Phillies, Jamie Moyer).

At some point, Francona will need to choose a postseason rotation. This, I suspect, is why the Red Sox have taken a liking to Dodgers right-hander Hiroki Kuroda in recent weeks. With the current cast, the Red Sox can hope that they have enough pitching to win the World Series. Add Kuroda, or someone of his caliber, and that “hope” is upgraded to “belief.”

Frankly, the same is true of Boston’s archrival. And perhaps it wasn’t an accident that the Yankees had a scout in Cleveland on Sunday, when White Sox trade candidate Edwin Jackson beat the contending Indians.

CC Sabathia has offered stability and magnificence in what is (sort of) a contract year. But aside from the big lefty, Freddy Garcia — the crafty 34-year-old who came to camp as a non-roster invitee — has been the Yankees’ most consistent starter. This is not what Cashman envisioned.

A.J. Burnett, while better than he was last year, remains overpaid. He leads the American League in walks, wild pitches and errors by a pitcher. He hasn’t put together consecutive quality starts since May 11. For all Burnett’s inconsistencies, Phil Hughes has been even more enigmatic. In three starts since returning from the disabled list, Hughes has a 6.46 ERA. At this point, his ability to perform down the stretch is a complete unknown.

So, Bartolo Colon is effectively the Yankees’ No. 4 starter. Sure, Colon was a great find for Cashman. But he’s not supposed to be part of this team’s playoff rotation — which, if the season ended today, is precisely where he would be. And it’s anyone’s guess whether he will be healthy enough for the assignment. Colon hasn’t made more than 20 starts in a season since 2005. He’s at 15 now.

True, Ivan Nova could come back from the minor leagues and contribute in the second half. But now the Yankees must wonder if they stalled his progress by sending him to Class AAA. Nova hasn’t pitched in the majors since July 1, and now he’s stuck on the minor league disabled list because of an injured ankle.

The Rangers’ rotation has been much healthier by comparison, with the same five pitchers accounting for all but three of the starts. The Texas staff has improved overall, with one of the lowest ERAs in the majors this month. But the question lingers: Can they do it without Lee?

The Rangers have two holdovers from last year’s postseason rotation, C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis. If the season ended today, righty Alexi Ogando and southpaw Matt Harrison would join them. Neither has started a postseason game, and Ogando has a nightmarish track record against the Yankees: 10-2/3 innings, 11 earned runs.

Though the need isn’t as glaring as it was for his team last year — or the Red Sox or Yankees this year — the proactive Daniels would be wise to add a veteran starter. After all, the Rangers have legitimate concerns about making the playoffs at all. Their lead in the AL West is only three games, and the second-place Angels brandish the league’s best rotation ERA.

This is why there is so much fascination with Tampa Bay’s James Shields, Colorado’s Ubaldo Jimenez, and any other No. 1 or No. 2 starter who might hit the market this week. The Red Sox, Yankees and Rangers are so close in overall talent. The Angels — and even the Tigers — aren’t far behind. One trade can change everything.

Sure, wisdom and restraint are essential traits of a successful general manager. But this is the week to be bold.
 

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