Major League Baseball

Washington Nationals: What To Watch For In Game 3 Of NLDS

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 3:00 p.m. ET

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June 21, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Washington Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper (34) hits a solo home run in the first inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

We give you our three keys to Game 3 of the NLDS between the Washington Nationals and Los Angeles Dodgers

Yesterday, the Washington Nationals got a timely hit from an unlikely hero. Trailing 2-0 to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the bottom of the fourth, Jose Lobaton hit a three-run home run to left, which shifted the entire momentum of the series.

Despite Tanner Roark only going 4+ innings yesterday, the bullpen did an excellent job as they shut out the Dodgers offense for the remainder of the game. They combined to strike out five Dodgers over the final 4.2 innings.

Now, the series shifts to Los Angeles this afternoon for Game 3. It will be interesting to see how these two teams adjust to not having a day off for traveling. But, as Ryan Zimmerman (3-for-7 in the series) put it yesterday, that shouldn’t matter at this point:

On paper, this is an interesting pitching matchup between Gio Gonzalez for the Washington Nationals and Kenta Maeda for the Dodgers. Gonzalez gets a chance to pitch against a lineup that struggles against lefties. Meanwhile, Maeda gets to face a team he hasn’t faced before.

Before Game 3 starts later this afternoon (4:08 p.m ET, MLB Network), here are three things to look out for that could decide who takes the 2-1 lead in the series.

Sep 21, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Kenta Maeda (18) pitches during the first inning against the San Francisco Giants at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

Dominance Of Maeda’s Slider

In his rookie season, Maeda went under the radar in a Dodgers rotation that features Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill. The 28-year-old right-hander went 16-11 with a 3.48 ERA in 32 starts. During the second half of the season, teams hit .246 and Maeda went 8-5 with a 4.25 ERA in 14 starts.

One of the keys to Maeda having success this season has been his slider. According to Brooks Baseball, teams are hitting .173 against Maeda’s slider this season with six home runs, but they have struck out 87 times.

To get a scouting report on Maeda, I talked with the editor of Dodgers Way, Alex Campos. Here is what he had to say about Maeda’s pitch arsenal:

While Maeda had a 2.73 ERA in five starts during the month of September, he hasn’t gone past the fifth inning in any of his last four outings. In the postseason, one bad inning can all of a sudden make this a bullpen game.

One other thing to keep an eye on is that Maeda’s 3.09 ERA in the first inning is the highest of any Dodgers starting pitcher. If the Washington Nationals offense can adjust early to a pitcher they haven’t seen before, it will allow the pressure to come off of Gonzalez a little bit.

Sep 11, 2016; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Gio Gonzalez (47) reacts after giving up a solo home run to Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Tommy Joseph (not shown) during the seventh inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Can The Dodgers Hit Left-Handed Pitching?

It is just two games (a very small sample size), but the Los Angeles Dodgers only have one hit against the Washington Nationals left-handed relievers in this series. This season, the Dodgers had the worst batting average and .OPS of any team in baseball.

This is where Gio Gonzalez needs to have one of his best games of the season. The 31-year-old left-hander had a rough end to his regular season as he pitched to a 7.43 ERA in his final five starts (1-2 record).

The problem for Gonzalez in the second half has been that his fastball was hittable in the second half. According to Brooks Baseball, teams hit .333 against Gonzalez’s fastball with four home runs in the second half (.257 in the first half).

If there’s one thing on Gonzalez’s side going into today, it’s the fact that the Dodgers don’t have much success against him. Gonzalez had the only win by a Washington Nationals against LA in the regular season (July 20). He is 3-1 with a 1.69 ERA in five career starts against LA (2.25 ERA in three starts at Dodger Stadium).

While Yasiel Puig is likely going to be in right field today for the Dodgers, he is only 1-for-11 against Gonzalez in his career. If Gonzalez can stay focused and be consistent, he has the capability to put up a great game here.

However, if Gonzalez struggles, Dusty Baker is going to be quick to take Gonzalez out of the game and bring in a pitcher like Reynaldo Lopez to try to keep the Washington Nationals in the ball game. The spotlight is going to be bright on Gonzalez today and it’s time for him to deliver.

Oct 9, 2016; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals center fielder Trea Turner (7) hits a single against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the fifth inning during game two of the 2016 NLDS playoff baseball series at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Which Top Of The Order Delivers?

When you look at the top of the order of these two lineups in the first two games, the one who does better has won the game. In Game 1, the top four in the lineup for the Dodgers went 4-for-15 with two home runs and four RBI’s. Meanwhile, the Nats top four went 3-for-15 with one RBI (Trea Turner sacrifice fly).

If you fast forward to Game 2 yesterday, the Dodgers top four hitters went 4-for-17 with one RBI (Corey Seager home run). Meanwhile, the Washington Nationals top four hitters were 6-for-15 with two RBI’s. Both of those RBI’s were by Daniel Murphy, who went 3-for-3 in the win.

On the Dodgers side, the two hitters I am watching in this game are Seager and Justin Turner. Seager has a home run in each of the first two games and has three home runs in eight games against the Washington Nationals this season (including postseason). As for Turner, the Dodgers third baseman is 4-for-6 in the series with a home run, but he is 2-for-19 against Gonzalez in his career.

In Game 2, Trea Turner looked more comfortable at the plate and went 2-for-4 with a stolen base. If gets on base, he can play a factor on the bases and give Bryce Harper, Jayson Werth, or Murphy those run scoring opportunities.

Sometimes, in the postseason, those unsung heroes emerge like Jose Lobaton did yesterday with his three-run home run. That could happen today for either side, but I think the team that gets the most production from the top four hitters in the lineup is going to win this pivotal game 3.

Oct 9, 2016; Washington, DC, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager (5) hits a home run against the Washington Nationals during the first inning against the Washington Nationals during game two of the 2016 NLDS playoff baseball series at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

PREDICTION

Before this series began, I looked at this pitching matchup as a toss-up because of the unknowns surrounding these two pitchers. With the Washington Nationals not having faced Maeda before, can they adjust quick enough to get an early lead and take the Los Angeles crowd out of the game?

More from District on Deck

Meanwhile, can Gonzalez have one of his best starts of the season against a team that shown an inability to hit against left-handed pitching? With the Dodgers being 1-for-14 against lefties in the series, this is where Dusty Baker needs to use all four left-handers in this game if he can.

As for which team I am going to pick today, I am going to go with the Dodgers in Game 3. The reason for that is I don’t trust Gonzalez to win a big game despite his success against the Dodgers.

This game will be high scoring, but Gonzalez has shown at times this season that he has struggled to get the shutdown inning after the Nats score on offense.

For that reason, I think Los Angeles wins Game 3 and we will be talking about tonight whether or not Max Scherzer should pitch on short rest in Game 4 tomorrow night.

Final Score: Dodgers 6 Nationals 4

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