Washington Nationals vs. Braves Series Preview (9/5-9/7)
Aug 31, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves center fielder Ender Inciarte (11) hits a two RBI single as San Diego Padres catcher Derek Norris (3) is shown on the play in the sixth inning of their game at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
This afternoon, the Washington Nationals are back home to begin a three game series against the last place Braves
Over the weekend, the Washington Nationals (79-57) lost two out of three games to the New York Mets at Citi Field. A.J. Cole did pick up his first big league win on Friday, but the offense struggled in the last two days against Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo as they went 0-for-15 with runners in scoring position.
Despite losing the series, the Nats still have a 8.5 game lead in the NL East with 27 games to go (magic number to clinch is 18). Today, they begin a ten game homestand as they start a three game series against the Atlanta Braves (54-83).
While the Nats are 11-2 against the Braves this season, Atlanta has been playing some good baseball lately. The Braves enter Washington D.C on a six game winning streak after sweeping the Padres and Phillies. They had 13 wins in the month of August, which are the most wins Atlanta has had in any month this season.
During the month of August, center fielder Ender Inciarte hit .371 (43 hits) and had a .430 on-base percentage at the top of the order. Plus, first baseman Freddie Freeman continued to have success on offense (.313, nine home runs, 24 RBI’s). Freeman has three home runs and eight RBI’s against the Nats this season.
As for how the Nats hitters have done against Braves pitching this year, Bryce Harper has three home runs and 14 RBI’s in 11 games while Daniel Murphy has four home runs, 10 RBI’s, and is hitting .378 (also in 11 games).
Over the course of this six game win streak, the Braves have allowed 18 runs. Even though Atlanta has pitched well lately, their team ERA of 5.19 was the fourth highest in the National League last month. But, they got a good performance from Julio Teheran yesterday as he shut out Philadelphia in six innings.
Before the series starts this afternoon, here is my breakdown of the three pitching matchups:
Aug 30, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Max Scherzer (31) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
Ryan Weber (1-0, 5.24 ERA) vs. Max Scherzer (15-7, 2.89) – 4:05 p.m ET, broadcast on MASN2
This start was originally going to go to Matt Wisler for the Braves. However, due to Wisler having a sore side, it will be Weber who gets the start today. The 26-year-old right-hander has made 12 appearances as a reliever this season, but this will be just the sixth start of his career.
While Weber had a 1.64 ERA in six appearances in August, opposing hitters had a .318 batting average against him. In two appearances against the Washington Nationals this season, he has given up two runs on nine hits in 4.2 innings, but eight of those hits came in one game (August 21). Chris Heisey and Clint Robinson each have a home run against him in their careers.
On Saturday, Dusty Baker decided to give Scherzer an extra day rest instead of pitching him Sunday night against the Mets. He hasn’t pitched since August 30 against the Phillies when he went eight innings, gave up two runs on three hits, struck out 11, and walked one in a win.
Scherzer has had 12 double-digit strikeout games this season and he has four of them in his last seven starts. In nine starts since the All-Star Break, the right-hander is 5-1 with a 2.60 ERA and has held opponents to a .170 batting average.
This season, Scherzer is 2-0 in three starts against Atlanta, but he has a 4.66 ERA (second highest against any team in the NL East). Adonis Garcia is 3-for-8 against Scherzer with a home run and three RBI’s.
Prediction: Although Scherzer has a high ERA against Atlanta this season, the offense has scored 21 runs in those three games. With a pitcher on the mound in Weber who hasn’t made a start this season, I like Scherzer to pick up his 16th win of the season this afternoon.
Aug 31, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Gio Gonzalez (47) pitches against the Philadelphia Phillies during the first inning at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Williams Perez (2-2, 4.62) vs. Gio Gonzalez (10-9, 4.14) – 7:05 p.m, MASN2
Tomorrow night’s start for Perez will be his first in the Major Leagues since June 6. Perez has been out since that start because of a rotator cuff strain. His last rehab outing took place on September 1 for triple-A Gwinnett. He threw five hitless innings and struck out seven on 66 pitches.
Last season, Perez appeared in 23 games (20 starts for the Braves and went 7-6 with a 4.78 ERA to go with one save. The 25-year-old right-hander ended that season on a bad note as he had a 6.21 ERA over his final 12 starts with opponents hitting .323.
In two career appearances against the Nats, Perez is 1-0 with a 5.68 ERA (both appearances came last season). Daniel Murphy is 3-for-6 with two doubles and a solo home run in his career against Perez.
As for Gonzalez, he extended his unbeaten streak to six starts in his last outing against the Phillies on August 31. He went six innings, gave up one run on two hits, struck out four, and walked one to pick up his tenth win of the year.
August was a kind month to the Washington Nationals left-handed starter. Gonzalez went 4-0 with a 3.58 ERA in six starts. His .208 batting average against was the second lowest he’s had in any month this season (.196 in April). Plus, he has given up six runs in his last three starts.
Gonzalez will be looking for his first win against the Braves this season (0-0, 2.31 ERA in two starts). With that being said, Gonzalez has not lost against Atlanta since 2014 (four starts). Freddie Freeman is 9-for-31 (.290) against Gonzalez with two home runs and ten RBI’s.
Prediction: Gonzalez did struggle with his command when he walked three batters against the Braves on August 21. But, he has only more than three walks twice in his last ten games. With Perez not pitching in a Major League game in three months, you don’t know what to expect here. If the Nats are going to lose any game in this series, I think it’s this one with the roll Atlanta is on right now.
Aug 12, 2016; Washington, DC, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Mike Foltynewicz (26) throws to the Washington Nationals during the second inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
Mike Foltynewicz (8-5, 4.31) vs. TBA – 7:05 p.m, MASN
Foltynewicz has been unbeaten in his last six starts. Against the Padres on September 1, he went six innings, gave up three runs on four hits, and struck out three in the victory. Since the All-Star Break, Foltynewicz has the most wins of any pitcher on the Braves staff (five).
With that being said, his 4.83 ERA over his last ten starts is the third highest of any Atlanta pitcher that has made at least five starts since the break. His command can sometimes be an issue, but the 24-year-old right-hander has only one walk in his last three starts. But, he has been prone to giving up the long ball lately (five home runs in his last five starts).
Back on August 12, Foltynewicz picked up the Braves only win of the season at Nats Park against Washington. He went 5.2 innings, gave up four runs on five hits, struck out three batters, and walked two. Murphy and Ben Revere each have three hits against him and Anthony Rendon has a home run in three at-bats.
Since the Washington Nationals haven’t officially named a starter, I won’t make a prediction for this game. However, it sounds like if he’s healthy, this is where Stephen Strasburg (15-4, 3.59) will be activated off the disabled list:
Strasburg has not made a start since August 17 because of soreness in his right elbow. In his three starts against the Braves this season, he is 2-1 with a 4.26 ERA. Freeman is hitting .412 against Strasburg in his career with four home runs and 13 RBI’s.
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