Trade Bait or Phillies' Placeholders
Phillies
June for Joseph Is the Average of His Cold April and Hot May. Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images.
While the veterans in demand are generating interest on the market for contenders, a secondary consideration is the availability of the catcher and the entire infield of the Philadelphia Phillies.
The Crossroads:
In almost every aspect of life, the choices in your workplace and your leisure activities have limitations: physical, monetary, rules and relationships.
Before general manager Matt Klentak can swing a deal involving an old hand or promote a prospect to the majors, he knows the roster boundaries he can operate in. For instance, he's aware of the need for experienced players in the dugout and clubhouse, and not having anybody with more MLB time than Freddy Galvis doesn't work. The decision-maker can't fill all 40 slots with green hurlers and rookies at every position: receiver Jorge Alfaro, first baseman Rhys Hoskins, second sacker Scott Kingery, shortstop J.P. Crawford, right fielder Dylan Cozens, center fielder Roman Quinn and left fielder Nick Williams. Only the armchair GM can.
If you deduct the vets who won't be here next summer and keep the younger regulars and reserves, you'd have two catchers, five infielders, three outfielders, four starters and three arms in the pen: a total of 17. Additionally, the organization has Cozens and righty reliever Jesen Dygestile-Therrien as realistic possibilities for next April. In other words, the Phils will probably sign and/or re-sign two bench bats – an infielder and an outfielder – to go with three bullpen pieces for a tally of 24. And Klentak will probably pick up a veteran stater also.
With 15 spots available, Alfaro, Crawford, Quinn, Williams and either Lively or Pivetta will claim five slots. Also, five other minor leaguers will be on the 40-man roster: infielder Jesmuel Valentin, right-handers Zach Eflin, Jake Thompson, Mark Appel and Drew Anderson. And Klentak won't be dropping those starters so quickly after the ones wearing red pinstripes have made five or more outings, are on the disabled list, or have been inconsistent. Meanwhile, Valentin was a possible backup infielder before surgery on his shoulder. In other words, five openings will remain for prospects who will need protection from the Rule 5 draft and acquired MiLB talent requiring a 40-man spot.
When a writer only scratches the surface, the easy appraisal is plenty of jobs will be available after the exec designates a few journeymen for assignment. But unless Williams is the fourth outfielder, Klentak will pick up a veteran in the offseason. And keep in mind, Hoskins will not require protection for another year, while Kingery and Eshelman have until after the 2019 campaign.
While fans have three ways to look at the current crop of regulars on the Philadelphia Phillies, they usually don't consider the third possibility. Firstly, the view is to move the present starter for a decent prospect from another franchise. The regular to them is merely a placeholder for the star with the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs. But few consider the names frequently on the 2017 lineup card for the future. Aren't some a maybe?
Was 2016 a Career Year for Rupp and Is He Just a Backup? Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images.
While Rupp is demonstrating how hard it is to repeat an excellent season, Knapp has 104 at-bats and has seen his average fluctuate with a good or bad day to .250 currently. But getting offense from a backstop is secondary to game calling, pitch framing, throwing out base runners and blocking balls in the dirt. So, where is tomorrow's receiver?
Triple-A Comparison:
On the IronPigs, Alfaro's numbers are similar to Knapp's from 2016. But last September, Alfaro struck out eight times out of 17 plate appearances. That stated, Alfaro has received high marks for his defensive skills. Is he tomorrow's catcher?
IN OTHER WORDS:
"There's just not a lot of inventory, and to find a shortstop or a catcher, or a center fielder, that you think that could stay at those positions… they're very hard to acquire. Sometimes you have to overpay for them, because of that lack of inventory." – Kevin Towers
The Team Will Not Have To Protect Hoskins Until After the 2018 Season. Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images.
In the sports department of a local newspaper, the new guy told the beat writer he believed Hoskins should get a shot at first base. But the scribe pointed out that Joseph had put up similar stats before his advancement to platoon with Ryan "the Big Piece" Howard in '16. And the writer added that Joseph has proven he can produce in the big leagues. General managers – the scribe continued – don't swap a known for an unknown, unless the Triple-A player is a highly touted prospect with jaw-dropping numbers.Triple-A Comparison:
FOOD FOR THOUGHT:
"I went to college for a reason, and that was to skip the minor leagues. I spent a year in the minors and got my at-bats in, and then I felt like I was ready for the big leagues." – Mark "Tex" Teixeira
Next Year, Galvis and Hernandez Will Face a Challenge for Their Jobs. Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images.
During lunch, Bob, the writer, stated his reasons why Galvis isn't on the trading block. He has versatility, is an elite defender, and provides enough production for a contending team with a solid offense. However, Tom, the new guy, disagreed and voiced his preference for Crawford's natural talent overall. But Bob pointed to Crawford's .207 average and reminded Tom that the shortstop can't walk his way to the Show.
On the right side of second base, Hernandez has lived up to Mackanin's appraisal of him as a .280 hitter with his .277 mark. However, his average dropped from .339 on May 6: He's only batting .211 in his last 114 ABs. But even if you include this slump in his statistics from June 20, 2016, he's hitting .306 for 145 games with 559 at-bats. Yes, the benching was his wake-up call.
With Kingery's promotion to Lehigh Valley, some are hoping to see him at the Bank in September, but the parent club has reasons to do otherwise. Those pesky rules! In other words, the 40-man roster will probably have but five remaining spots, and only players requiring protection will fill a slot. However, the second sacker has until after the 2019 campaign to need one.
Regarding Kingery, the faithful will be closely watching his stats with no idea of what the front office expects. And those fans will discount the GM's comments they don't want to hear. So, if the second sacker is successful at Triple-A, does Klentak have a timeframe in mind? Yes, 400 at-bats!
So Far, Alfaro Has Not Outperformed Knapp's 2016 Numbers at Triple-A. Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images.
The Numerical Bible:
This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
Stats are through June 27.
According to Fangraphs, low walk rates are only acceptable for players with exceptional power numbers. Here are plate-discipline comparisons.
Triple-A Plate Discipline:
Rating | K% | BB% |
---|---|---|
Excellent | 10.0% | 15.0% |
Great | 12.5% | 12.5% |
Above Average | 16.0% | 10.0% |
Average | 20.0% | 8.0% |
Below Average | 22.0% | 7.0% |
Poor | 25.0% | 5.5% |
Awful | 27.5% | 4.0% |
Stats are through June 27.
Triple-A Hitting:
Triple-A Hitting:
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