Major League Baseball

Too early to bury the Red Sox

Published Aug. 6, 2010 1:00 a.m. ET

share

facebookxredditlink

Ken Rosenthal

I come not to bury the Red Sox.

No one should bury the Red Sox, not when they are only 5-1/2 games out of a playoff spot, not when nearly a third of the season remains.

“It’s too early to write their eulogy,” one American League executive warned this week. “Their pitching is too good.”

Alas, the exec spoke before the news broke Thursday that Sox first baseman Kevin Youkilis will undergo season-ending surgery on his right thumb.

The avalanche of Red Sox injuries is worse than anything even the Phillies or Tigers have endured. But the Sox, for all their troubles, still are on a 92-win pace.

Here are the problems:

• The Sox are chasing the top two teams in baseball, the Yankees and Rays.

• The vaunted Sox rotation is only now starting to fulfill expectations.

Thus, Boston’s four-game series against the Yankees in New York this weekend (MLB on FOX, Saturday, 4 p.m. ET) looms as potentially critical.

If the Sox lose three of four or all four, the math will get especially daunting, and it’s pretty challenging already. The Sox stand only a 23.3 percent chance of reaching the post-season, according to Baseball Prospectus’ playoff odds report. The Rays are at 86.7 percent, the Yankees 83.6.

Prospectus calculates those odds by running a Monte Carlo simulation the rest of the season a million times. Remove Youkilis from the equation and the odds get even worse, even if the Sox add a left-handed hitting first baseman such as Carlos Delgado, Adam LaRoche or Lyle Overbay.

Yet, Sox fans need not wallow in self-pity, though for some it remains their preferred state of existence, even after two World Series titles in the past seven seasons.

The Sox, as another rival exec notes, still are playing with a $110 million team on the field. What’s more, second baseman Dustin Pedroia might singlehandedly will the team back into contention once he comes off the disabled list.

A little perspective, please . . .

Last offseason, general manager Theo Epstein generated considerable angst by referring to this season as a potential “bridge” to future titles, then drew criticism for shifting to a run-prevention strategy after losing free-agent slugger Jason Bay.

Turns out Epstein built a heck of a club.

He never guessed that right fielder J.D. Drew, simply by avoiding his usual run of injuries, would become Boston’s answer to Cal Ripken Jr. But for the Sox, improbable heroes continue to emerge: Daniel Nava, Darnell McDonald, Bill Hall, maybe now Mike Lowell.

Adrian Beltre is an MVP candidate in his first, and perhaps only, season in Boston. The revival of David Ortiz is one of the year’s better stories. Manager Terry Francona absolutely adores this team for its toughness, its resilience, its fighting spirit.

The Red Sox went 49-32 through July 3, averaging 5.5 runs per game. They’ve gone 13-15 since, averaging just 4.1 runs. Yet Boston’s primary flaw, especially given the way the Sox were constructed, has been the pitching. The team is sixth in the AL in rotation ERA, ninth in bullpen ERA, and ninth overall.

Sure, right-hander Josh Beckett was among the injured. But righty John Lackey, whose five-year, $82.5 million free-agent contract was Boston’s major offseason investment, has been mostly a disappointment. And the bullpen in front of closer Jonathan Papelbon and setup man Josh Bard remains thin.

For the Sox to crawl back into contention, they will need to pitch like crazy, producing one shutdown start after another. Such a run is possible — the matchups against the Yankees this weekend actually favor the Sox in three of the four games.

Righty Clay Buchholz and lefty Jon Lester rank second and eighth in the league in ERA, respectively. Right-hander Daisuke Matsuzaka has produced a 2.84 ERA in his last 12 starts. Beckett has allowed just five runs combined in his last three, and Lackey, too, has pitched better of late.

The Yankees and Rays are not going to fade easily, if at all. It’s of no consolation to the Sox that they boast as many wins as any of the other five division leaders. According to STATS LLC, they have more player days on the DL than the Yankees and Rays combined.

Maybe it’s just one of those seasons -- they happen, even to teams with $162 million payrolls. The Sox will face a series of difficult choices this winter; Beltre and catcher Victor Martinez are free agents, and the team holds a $12.5 million option on David Ortiz. On the other hand, the Sox have a mere $94.3 million committed to their nine-highest paid players, not including Papelbon, who will exceed $10 million in his final year of arbitration.

Thus, Epstein will be in an enviable position. He can pick and choose from his own free agents, sign an outfielder such as Jayson Werth or Carl Crawford, maybe even make his long-anticipated trade for Padres first baseman Adrian Gonzalez.

Drew, Cameron and shortstop Marco Scutaro will be off the books after ’11, creating even more flexibility. And prospects such as shortstop Jose Iglesias and right-hander Casey Kelly are rising through the system.

It is not time to bury the Red Sox. Nor is it time to feel sorry for them.

Let’s see how the weekend goes. Let’s wait on the eulogy.

share

Get more from Major League Baseball Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more

in this topic

Major League Baseball