Major League Baseball

Texas Rangers: 2016 Season In Review

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 8:47 p.m. ET

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Aug 2, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; A general view of a Texas Rangers hat and glasses in the dugout during the game against the San Francisco Giants at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Texas won 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

The Texas Rangers had a successful regular season that saw them win the AL West and make the playoffs for the fifth time in the last seven years.

Despite winning the AL West in 2015, the Texas Rangers were not the consensus favorite to win the division again in 2016. Sports Illustrated predicted they would finish second in the West behind the Astros, but would still win 90 games and make the playoffs as a wild card team. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA was less confident, picking the Rangers to finish under .500, with a record of 80-82. Fangraphs was the least confident of them all, picking the Rangers to finish tied with the Oakland Athletics at the bottom of the division, with a record of 79-83.

The Rangers actually won 95 games, the most in the American League. They ran away with the AL West, finishing nine games ahead of the second-place Seattle Mariners. The Rangers scored the fourth-most runs in the American League but also allowed the third-most runs.

In fact, the Rangers’ run-differential was just +8. They scored eight more runs than they allowed. There were seven teams in the American League with a better run-differential. How did the Rangers lead the league in wins despite such a mediocre run-differential? They did it by going 36-11 in games decided by one run, by far the best record in baseball.

Winning such a high percentage of one-run games is great during the season because those are actual victories. The Rangers won 95 games and made the playoffs. It was a very successful regular season. Then they got swept in the playoffs by the hated Toronto Blue Jays. It was the second year in a row in which they lost in the divisional series round. So it was good and it was bad.

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That 36-11 record in one-run games, though, that’s a little frightening for the team’s prospects moving forward. Here are some numbers to consider:

2015

88-74, .543

751 runs scored

733 runs allowed

+18 run differential

27-22 one-run games

83-79, .512 expected record

2016

95-67, .586

765 runs scored

757 runs allowed

+8 run differential

36-11 one-run games

82-80, .506 expected record

Expected record is based on runs scored and runs allowed. The 2015 Rangers won five more games than would be expected based on their runs scored and runs allowed. They were a little “lucky.” The 2016 Rangers were VERY “lucky.” They won 13 more games than would be expected based on their runs scored and runs allowed.

Again, this doesn’t matter for this season. Those games are already in the record books. It does matter for next year, though. It will be almost impossible for the Rangers to win 75% of their one-run games next year. Consider where the Rangers placed in key statistics in 2015 and 2016:

2015

8th in wOBA (98 wRC+)

5th in defense

19th in starting pitcher fWAR (4.32 ERA, 4.39 FIP)

25th in relief pitcher fWAR (4.12 ERA, 4.26 FIP)

2016

10th in wOBA (98 wRC+)

13th in defense

22nd in starting pitcher fWAR (4.38 ERA, 4.69 FIP)

24th in relief pitcher fWAR (4.40 ERA, 4.38 FIP)

Based on the underlying metrics, the 2016 Rangers were not as good as the 2015 team on offense, defense, or starting pitching. The bullpen finished slightly better. They won more games because of that excellent record in one-run games.

Let’s take a look at the good, the bad, and the ugly for the Texas Rangers in 2016.

Apr 9, 2016; Anaheim, CA, USA; Texas Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre (29) celebrates with teammates in the dugout after hitting a solo home run in the fourth inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

The Good

3B Adrian Beltre (6.1 fWAR, 640 PA)—The great Adrian Beltre, a national treasure, just keeps on hitting. After a slightly down season in 2015, Beltre bounced back with a 32-homer, 104-RBI season that should place him in the top 10 of MVP voting in the American League. Sometime next June, Beltre will get his 3,000th hit, which should open the doors to the Baseball Hall of Fame when he finally calls it quits in the future.

OF Ian Desmond (3.3 fWAR, 677 PA)—The Rangers signed Desmond to a bargain-basement 1-year, $8 million free agent contract before the season and got the player Desmond was a few years ago. Desmond handled the transition from shortstop to the outfield well enough that he was moved from left field to centerfield during the year. He tied for the best on-base percentage of his career and was a 20-homer/20-steals guy for the fourth time in his career. He will get paid this winter.

SP Cole Hamels (3.0 fWAR, 200.7 IP)—Along with Martin Perez, Hamels was one of only two starting pitchers on the Rangers to pitch more than 120 innings in 2016. He led the team in innings pitched, wins, and strikeouts. Hamels now has a streak of seven consecutive seasons of pitching 200 or more innings.

SP Yu Darvish (2.7 fWAR, 100.3 IP)—After missing the entire 2015 season, Darvish came back as good as ever. The only drawback to his season was that he was limited to just 17 starts. When he was on the mound, he was very good. He had the highest strikeout rate in the American League for pitchers who threw more than 100 innings and the difference between his strikeout rate and walk rate was also the best in the league.

SS Elvis Andrus (2.1 fWAR, 568 PA)—Andrus had a bizarre season. Before this year, he had established himself as a below-average hitter but good fielder. He had a wRC+ of 80 or below in each of the three previous seasons, which means he was at least 20% worse than league average as a hitter. This year, he was 12% better than league average (112 wRC+), thanks mainly to a career-high .362 on-base percentage. Unfortunately, his glove was questionable. Based on the Fangraphs’ defensive metric, Andrus was the second-worst fielding shortstop among players with more than 400 at-bats. Baseball-Reference wasn’t as critical of his fielding, though, so it’s hard to say exactly how poor his defense was. The above average offense put him in the “Good” category. 

2B Rougned Odor (2.0 fWAR, 632 PA)—Odor really packed a punch this year. His 33 home runs put him in the top 10 all-time for home runs in a season by an American League second baseman. He also scored 89 runs, drove in 88, and stole 14 bases. As good as he was in these categories, he had real struggles to get on base, finishing with a .296 on-base percentage. The low on-base percentage and favorable home park for hitting made his wRC+ just 106, meaning he was 6% better than league average after league and park effects are taken into account. He also rated poorly with the glove by both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference.

C Jonathan Lucroy (1.7 fWAR, 168 PA)—The Rangers acquired Lucroy in a trade with the Brewers and he solidified the catching position for the team down the stretch, hitting .276/.345/.539 with the team. He was worth 1.7 fWAR in just two months of playing time, which ranked him eighth for the entire year among AL catchers. All of the players above him had many more plate appearances.

RP Matt Bush (1.5 fWAR, 61.7 IP)—The Matt Bush story is interesting in many ways, but his comeback this year with the Rangers after not pitching professionally since 2011 is quite amazing. He was the most valuable reliever on the Rangers, posting a 2.48 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 61 2/3 innings. His average fastball velocity of 97.1 mph put him in the top 10 among relief pitchers in all of baseball. Let’s hope he can continue to beat the addictions that led to him being out of baseball for so many years.

RP Sam Dyson (1.0 fWAR, 70.3 IP)—The Rangers struggling to find someone to close out games for the first month of the season, then finally settled on Sam Dyson in early May. He didn’t pick up his first save of the season until May 11, but finished the year with 38, third in the American League. Dyson had a slightly better ERA than Bush (above), but his 3.62 FIP was not as impressive as Bush’s 2.74.

Sep 14, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Texas Rangers starting pitcher Derek Holland (45) reacts as Houston Astros left fielder Teoscar Hernandez (35) rounds the bases after hitting a home run during the second inning at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The Bad

SP Derek Holland (0.9 fWAR, 105.3 IP)—Holland had an ERA near 5.00, the lowest strikeout rate of his career, and his highest walk rate since 2011. That’s just not very good.

OF Shin-Soo Choo (0.5 fWAR, 210 PA)—Injuries limited Choo to just 48 games, which hurt his value. He did put up a good on-base percentage (.357), but his slugging percentage was weak (.399) and he was a negative on defense. Also, he made $20 million.

1B Mitch Moreland (0.4 fWAR, 503 PA)—Moreland has been in the big leagues since 2010 and has had one season in which he was a league average player. He’s hit 15 or more home runs five times, so it seems like he must be somewhat useful, but he really hasn’t been all that useful or valuable in any season other than 2015. This year, he hit 22 home runs. Woo hoo! He also had a .298 on-base percentage. Not so woo hoo

OF Delino DeShields (0.2 fWAR, 203 PA)—DeShields was expected to be the starting centerfielder at the beginning of the year. He was coming off a rookie season in which he hit .261/.344/.374, with 25 steals and 83 runs scored in 492 plate appearances. The sophomore slump hit big in 2016. DeShields hit .209/.275/.313 and spent part of the season in the minors.

Jul 10, 2016; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas Rangers first baseman Prince Fielder (84) on deck in the sixth inning against the Minnesota Twins at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

The Ugly

DH Prince Fielder (-1.8 fWAR, 370 PA)—Fielder’s body finally betrayed him. He played a little more than half a season, but hit just .212/.292/.334, with eight home runs in 370 plate appearances. He played his last game shortly after the all-star break, then had an emotional press conference to announce his retirement.

RP Tom Wilhelmsen (-0.8 fWAR, 21.3 IP)—Wilhelmsen had combined for a 2.67 ERA in 141 1/3 innings in 2014 and 2015. The Rangers acquired him in a trade with the Mariners, hoping he would help stabilize their bullpen. Instead, he got blasted for a 10.55 ERA in 21 1/3 innings before being released in June. 

RP Cesar Ramos (-0.7 fWAR, 27.7 IP)—Like Wilhelmsen, Ramos had been a solid reliever before this year with the Rangers. From 2011 to 2015, Ramos had a 3.49 ERA in 276 innings. This year he was lit up for a 6.04 ERA in 47 2/3 innings.

RP Shawn Tolleson (-0.3 fWAR, 36.3 IP)—Add Tolleson to the carnage of the Rangers’ bullpen. After surprising many with a 35-save, 2.99 ERA season in 2015, Tolleson struggled in the first six weeks of the season and lost his closer’s job. His strikeout rate dropped by more than two batters per nine innings and his ERA ballooned to 7.68.

SP A.J. Griffin (-0.1 fWAR, 119 IP)—After not pitching in the major leagues since 2013, Griffin came back from injury to pitch again this year, but struggled. He finished with a 5.07 ERA (5.74 FIP). Home runs were a big problem, which was also true the last time he pitched in the big leagues (36 homers allowed in 2013). Griffin’s 2.1 HR/9 was the highest rate in baseball for pitchers with more than 100 innings, even higher than James Shields and Jered Weaver.

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