Major League Baseball

Strasburg ready to show what he's got?

Published Jun. 7, 2010 5:39 p.m. ET

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After a year of rummaging through our vocabularies for the right superlatives, what do we really know about Stephen Strasburg?

Well, we know that he has the ability to be an All-Star for many years.

We know that he's had a great season in the minor leagues: 7-2 with a 1.30 ERA in 11 starts.

We know that many baseball old-timers believe he's one of the best pitching prospects to come around in a long, long time.

“A complete pitcher,” said Bret Saberhagen, the two-time Cy Young Award winner. “He will be a great big leaguer.”

On Tuesday, thankfully, the paradigm flips. Projections out. Performance in. Hallelujah.

Strasburg will make his big-league debut against the Pittsburgh Pirates, and no one is mistaking this for spot duty. Strasburg, who turns 22 next month, is probably here to stay. The rest of his refining will take place against major-league hitters with massive crowds on hand.

"I saw him pitch," testified right-hander Max Scherzer, himself a former first-round pick of the Diamondbacks. "He deserves a lot of hype."

Yes.

But not this much. Not right now. You can forget about Stephen Strasburg posting an ERA below 3.00 and turning the Washington Nationals into a true contender, as some forecasts would have you believe.

Strasburg is viewed by some as the midsummer Santa Claus who will bring meaningful September baseball to our nation's capital. But how good can he be for a team that, despite its recent progress, is last in the National League East?

Washington is 4-9 in its last 13 games. The club leads the National League with 53 errors. The bullpen has more losses (15) than any other in the NL.

A soft schedule — Pirates, then the Indians — will help a little. ("He already faced both of those teams in the International League," one player quipped.) But we're talking about a rookie pitcher who is only one year removed from draft day.

"I had a decent spotlight — but not like his," said Tigers ace Justin Verlander, who debuted with a spot start on the Fourth of July in 2005, some 13 months after he went No. 2 overall. "The way he's done everything so far, he's handled himself very well. I expect him to be really good.

"Guys don't ask for (hype). He isn't going out there, trying to draw attention to himself. He's drawing attention to himself because of his ability. Same with (Jason) Heyward. I don't see anything wrong with that. It's something you've got to learn to live with."

Strasburg isn't going to dominate the National League right now. (Relax, Ubaldo, your hegemony is safe.) In fact, he will have trouble living up to the standard set by last year's NL rookie pitching sensation.

Too many people have forgotten just how good Tommy Hanson was during his rookie season with the Braves.

Hanson debuted on June 7, 2009 — one year and one day before Strasburg. At season's end, he was 11-4 with a 2.89 ERA in 127 2/3 innings. Great, great numbers. I will be shocked if Strasburg equals them — and not because Hanson is the superior pitcher.

Hanson had several advantages: He was one year older than Strasburg is now; he had more experience in the minors; he was pitching in front of a better team; and his innings limit wasn't as stringent.

“Tommy had a few more years of minor league baseball, so he could work up to those innings,” said Dave Brundage, the Braves’ Triple-A manager. “Hanson’s off-speed stuff is probably a little more refined, but the fastball velocity is different. Tommy’s probably 92 to 95 (mph). Strasburg is 95 to 96 with his sinker — you just don’t see that very often in baseball. That’s special.”

Strasburg may very well be a once-in-a-generation pitching prospect. But he probably won't be the best NL rookie — statistically, at least — during the Obama administration. Especially if the Nationals hold him to roughly 105 innings from now until the end of the year, as the team has indicated.

Mark Prior (2002) might be the better comparison. He made 19 starts, a more attainable number than Hanson's 21. He went 6-6 for a bad team. His ERA was 3.32 — very good but not history-making.

We cringe at the mention of Prior's name, because of the way injuries overwhelmed his promise. But to have a Prior-esque beginning is rare indeed.

"Hate to fuel the hype on this guy," one American League executive said Monday morning, "but there's no reason for me to believe he's not going to dominate at Prior's level."

"He's got special mound presence, and his fastball can overpower major-league hitters," said manager Matt Walbeck, whose Double-A Altoona Curve faced Strasburg twice this year. "I don't think an ERA in the threes is too farfetched."

I agree. An ERA of 3.70 or thereabouts would be a great achievement for any rookie pitcher. But it wouldn't beat Hanson — or some of the unrealistic expectations.

The recent dominance of Colorado's Jimenez aside, Tim Lincecum has been the standard-bearer for National League pitching since 2008. Lincecum is the first right-hander since Greg Maddux to win back-to-back NL Cy Young awards.

Like Strasburg, Lincecum ascended to the majors in the year after he was drafted. And these were his numbers from June 8 through the end of the '07 season: 5-5, 3.98 ERA, 106 1/3 innings.

Just something to think about.

"Lincecum was the nastiest college pitcher I ever saw," said Rich Hill, head coach at the University of San Diego. (And yes, his teams faced Strasburg.) "Big league hitters are a different animal. They're not going to chase until two strikes. Umpires in the big leagues don't give you anything, either.

"(Strasburg) is going to have to learn, just like everyone else."

Two lessons here: No matter how talented you are, it's difficult to dominate right away. And don't panic if Strasburg has a 4.10 ERA one month from now.

But we know better than to think fans will have perspective when it comes to the long-limbed righty. Major League Baseball is a right-now game. And on Tuesday night, the Next Big Thing will be just like 29 other starting pitchers, trying like hell to throw a heavy ball into a little strike zone.

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