Phillies: Previewing What the 2017 Bullpen Might Look Like
Jul 31, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; General view of the outfield scoreboard and bullpen at dusk in a game between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Atlanta Braves at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
One of the goals for the Phillies this offseason was to bolster the bullpen. As the 2017 season inches closer, fans should be pleased with how they have went about making the wish a reality.
The bullpen. Phillies fans know of its importance. It was one of main reasons, if not the most important, for the 2008 World Series title they all still talk about to this day. It could also be argued that it was the roadblock that kept the same fanbase from seeing a repeat only one October later. It is perhaps the most difficult part of the roster to build and keep together from year to year.
As the 2016 season began, there were question marks all throughout Philadelphia’s roster. Maybe none bigger than who would take the jog from through Citizen Bank Park’s centerfield gate in the ninth inning. Opening Day did not get to the ninth inning with a lead because a combination of David Hernandez and James Russell had difficulty throwing strikes, let alone getting outs. The closer search started with Dalier Hinojosa, but after he blew a one run lead in the ninth of the season’s second game, Mackanin turned elsewhere.
Enter: Jeanmar Gomez. He would prove to be the ninth ining guy the Phillies needed (at least at the onset of the season). As the season progressed, however, the Phils searched for any semblance of Gomez’s consistency in other arms. They did find some youthful arms that they hope will help them in 2017.
However, the inconsistency in the bullpen outside of Gomez, Hector Neris, and Edubray Ramos forced general manager, Matt Klentak, to bolster the 2017 group.
Since 2016 was not what we would refer to as a “banner year” for the Phillies pen, there will likely only be a few returnees from last year’s collection of arms. The basis of this article is off the idea that the Phils will carry the normal seven arms in their pen. After examining what they have between their 40-man roster and non-roster invitations to Spring Training, six guarantees have been discovered.
Jun 7, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies relief pitcher Jeanmar Gomez (46) and catcher Carlos Ruiz (51) celebrate win against the Chicago Cubs at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies defeated the Cubs, 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
The Guarantees: Jeanmar Gomez
Let’s start with the aforementioned Gomez. Last season, the versatile right-hander was cast into a difficult, unfamiliar role. A pitcher without devastating stuff, Gomez was asked to take on the elusive closer role. The 28 year old was up to the task for most of the season as he posted 37 saves in 43 opportunities.
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However, he only struck out 47 hitters while walking 22. He had a 6.3 K/9 in 68.2 innings. To put that into perspective, he ranked last among closers with 20 or more saves (20 pitchers). As the year went along, Gomez saw his ERA rise to a terrifying 4.85, which also ranked last among those same 20 closers. He also ranked last in batting average against (.289) and WHIP (1.46).
Gomez has always been more of a contact pitcher and his stuff profiles more for the middle relief role. In his first season with the Phillies, Gomez threw well out of that role (74.2 IP, 3.01 ERA, and 50 strikeouts, and only 17 walks).
The 28 year old’s skill set is better served when he is used more sparingly over the course of a week of games, rather than every night with a lead. While Gomez showed his versatility in 2016, the Phils could use his strike-throwing consistency in the middle innings more than in the ninth.
And with the additions the Phils made this offseason, it is probably safe to assume he will end up back in that role in 2017.
Jun 29, 2016; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Edubray Ramos against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
The Guarantees: Edubray Ramos
By the end of June, the Phillies decided that the right move would be to inject some youth into their bullpen. They dug into the farm and pulled up then 23 year old Edubray Ramos. The Venezuela native would not disappoint in his first four months of big league baseball.
Ramos was put into the 7th and 8th inning roles almost immediately. He faced right-handed (76 plate appearances) and left-handed (83 plate appearances) hitting almost an identical amount of times. While lefties had a tad more success against him, he was able to hold his own (lefties slashed .260/.313/.481).
Entering 2017, Ramos has an inside track to the same role he held last season. His fastball-slider combination puts him in a strong position to take one of the late innings for the Phils. He threw those two pitches 88% of the time last season. His slider is absolutely his put out pitch, and will continue to develop throughout his career. A career that Phils fans will be able to watch continue in 2017.
May 29, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Philadelphia Phillies relief pitcher Hector Neris (50) after pitching against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports
The Guarantees: Hector Neris
Perhaps the Phillies greatest surprise in 2016 was Hector Neris. To put how good Neris was into perspective, a few simple stats can be used. Hitters posted a miserable .202 average against him. They were able to muster a sad .620 OPS (on-base plus slugging) when he toed the rubber. He struck out 102 batters, while walking only 30 in 80.1 innings pitched.
There were some rumlings that Klentak would try to flip Neris this offseason as he did Ken Giles before 2016. However, heading into Spring Training, he is one of the four members of the bullpen to be in the mix for the closer role. While it remains possible the 27 year old can be moved, it seems as though the Phils believe Neris can at least be a part of their immediate plans.
At times last season, it seemed as though Neris’ splitter was the most unhittable pitch in the majors. It just disappeared into the dirt time after time. Every single person in the stadium or watching at home knew Neris was going to throw it. And yet, the man standing 60 feet 6 inches away still had no chance to hit it.
Last season, Neris threw the second most innings in his career (he threw 97 in AA back in 2013). The Phils will have to watch him closely to avoid any costly injuries and for him to continue his 2016 success. However, he is my early prediction for the Opening Day closer.
Aug 29, 2016; Baltimore, MD, USA; Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Joaquin Benoit (53) throws a pitch in the ninth inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports
The Guarantees: Joaquin Benoit
Joaquin Benoit is entering his 15th season as a major league pitcher. While he spent his first four seasons as a struggling starter, Benoit eventually found his home as a successful reliever. The Phillies are Benoit’s seventh team since his first full season in 2002.
When Klentak signed the 39-year old at the beginning of December to a $7.5 million deal, it felt like another opportunity to flip a veteran at the deadline. When the deadline approaches in late July, Benoit will be a young 40 years old. The Phils hope he will be a productive 40 though. And there is no reason to assume he will let them down.
First of all, Benoit was incredibly successful in his 2016 campaign with Toronto. After struggling in Seattle, Benoit was traded on his birthday (July 26th) to Toronto. His season completely turned around as he would go on to post ridiculous numbers in his 25 appearances. He struck out 24 hitters, and pitched to a 1.03 WHIP and an absurd 0.38 ERA.
He was still throwing his fastball at 94 MPH last season, which was the same velocity he was at during his 2010 campaign, arguably the best of his career. According to a fangraphs article by Eno Sarris, he ranked in the top 40 of swinging strike with his changeup in 2016. That combination of pitches will make him a lead horse in the race for closer come March.
Aug 12, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Houston Astros relief pitcher Pat Neshek (37) delivers a pitch against Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
The Guarantees: Pat Neshek
Another veteran that Klentak added to Pete Mackanin’s arsenal for the 2017 season, Pat Neshek has put together a very effective four seasons. Over that time, the right-hander has pitched in Oakland, St. Louis, and Houston. He has gone 40 or more innings each of those seasons, while posting an ERA under 3.50 every season.
While his seasons in Oakland and Houston have all been impressive, Neshek’s best numbers happened during his one season in St. Louis. While spending his one season in the National League, the righty threw 67.1 innings, striking out 68 hitters on his way to a 0.79 WHIP and 1.87 ERA. At the start of 2017, Neshek will only be three years removed from that run, but back in the same league.
The Phillies may want to avoid using Neshek against lefty heavy lineups. Although the 36 year old was successful last season, he did have difficulties when facing left-handed hitting. Lefties hit .250 against Neshek, but OPS’d an absurd .967 against him. The Astros limited him to less than 60 chances against left-handed hitting and the Phils may want to do the same.
Neshek will figure somewhere into the middle of the Phillies bullpen. Look for him to find himself somewhere in the 40-50 innings mark, but be a solid middle relief option for Mackanin to turn to as a viable option.
Mar 3, 2015; Clearwater, FL, USA; Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Joely Rodriguez (64) throws a pitch during the fifth inning against the New York Yankees during a spring training baseball game at Bright House Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
The Guarantees: Joely Rodriguez
The five righties are as close to 100% guaranteed as it gets. Barring something out of the ordinary or an unforeseen injury during Spring Training, the five previously mentioned arms will be in the bullpen come April 3rd in Cincinnati. However, this pick is a bit of a risk.
Joely Rodriguez was one of the original fire-sale returns for the Phillies. Back in the Ruben Amaro Jr. days, Rodriguez was acquired from the Pirates for southpaw Antonio Bastardo. He was not seen as much of a starting prospect, but some saw him with the potential to succeed in the bullpen.
Last season, the Phils organization liked what they saw from Rodriguez. With such little left-handed relief depth in the organization, the Phils are depending on Rodriguez to build off a strong, albeit small 2016 sample size. He only threw 9.2 innings, but was very effective in that time. He struggled early, allowing six hits, two walks, and three earned runs over his first three 2.2 innings. Over his next seven innings, the 25 year old surrendered only one hit and two walks, while not allowing a single run.
He really only shows a fastball-slider combination and has a fairly equal split, using the heat 52% of the time and his breaking ball almost 48% of the time. The two pitches are separated by about 9 MPH with his fastball finding its way up to 97 MPH at times. Rodriguez was actually better against right-handed hitters in 2017. They suffered a .410 OPS against him in only 18 plate appearances. The Phils hope he can have some success against lefties, so they can have a dependable piece to use in situational spots.
Sep 30, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Alec Asher (49) pitches during the first inning against the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Internal Options
From what we have listed here, the Phillies will have one spot left in their bullpen heading into 2017. They may try and lead us to believe that there are other competitions, but after seeing Rodriguez at the end of 2016, it would take incredible Springs from some of the following pitchers to move away from him. Let’s move down the list of what is left and see what each one brings to the table.
Mark Appel– The Phillies have to decide how they want to use the former top prospect. His injuries continue to mount and they may ultimately lead to a move to the pen. However, it would not surprise me to see the organization give him one more chance in the starting rotation at Lehigh Valley when the team breaks camp.
Alec Asher– At the end of 2016, Asher was given the chance to come up and start for the big club.
He was very successful in his five starts before the season ended, going 2-1 and not allowing more than three earned runs once in that stretch. With a logjam of starting pitching in front of him (Jake Thompson, Zach Eflin, and more), Asher may see himself watching games from centerfield at CBP someday. With five righties though, he may start the season in Lehigh Valley in the back of the rotation.
Luis Garcia– I mean, do I really have to go into this one? The organization continues to give this guy a shot, but he continues to show inconsistencies in his control. Garcia pitched to an ERA over six and walked eight guys in under 16 innings. Lehigh Valley will welcome him back with open arms.
Dalier Hinojosa– Here is an interesting case for the Phillies. Although the 30 year old righty is a non-roster invitee, his will be a case I keep a close eye on throughout March. He made a great impression last Spring and made the team out of camp. He was only able to pitch in 10 games before the Phils sidelined him with a hand contusion due to a line drive hitting him. He will more than likely be outrighted or sent to AAA, but if he impresses in camp again, who knows?
Jun 4, 2016; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas Rangers starting pitcher Cesar Ramos (55) delivers to the plate against the Seattle Mariners at Globe Life Park in Arlington. The Rangers won 10-4. Mandatory Credit: Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports
External Options
Pedro Beato– Major wildcard here. It would take a major miracle coupled with some minor miracles for Beato to make the Opening Day roster. However, being that he has had some MLB success, I thought he deserved at least a mention on this list. Out of the remaining right handed pitchers mentioned here, he would sit last among the group. He has spent the last two seasons in Baltimore’s AAA affiliate, the Norfolk Tides. Despite success at that level, he will more than likely fill the same role with AAA Lehigh Valley.
Cesar Ramos– Here is where I believe the serious competition sits. Ramos is one of two lefties on minor league deals with and invite to Spring Training. He pitched in 16 games for the Texas Rangers in 2016. And, folks, it was not pretty. He threw to the tune of a 6.08 ERA over that period and the splits were not as pretty as one would hope. The Phils are absolutely hoping to strike lightning in a bottle here. Ramos is only one full season removed from putting up decent numbers in Anaheim (1.34 WHIP and 2.75 ERA in over 65 IP). They would take those numbers from a guy they hope can just get a lefty out here and there.
Sean Burnett– Here is a guy that Phils fans should be rooting for this Spring. Burnett was a stable piece of the Washington bullpen for four seasons. In 2013, the southpaw had to undergo elbow surgery and has not been the same since. Burnett had plenty of consistency throughout his time with both the Nationals and the Pittsburgh Pirates. He was able to get both righties and lefties out without much of an issue. The hunch here is that the Phils would like to see Burnett succeed in March and give them reason to add the lefty as the final piece of their bullpen puzzle.