Major League Baseball

MLB Playoff Wrap: Tigers Take Advantage

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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The MLB playoff races are beginning to reach a boiling point, and with under three weeks until the end of the regular reason, each game will feel like a must win for teams on the bubble.

Yesterday I talked about the Giants needing to take advantage of their schedule over the next three games against the Padres at home to provide some insurance while facing the Cardinals and Dodgers the following seven games. The Giants then proceeded to get shut out by San Diego, 4-0.

In a similar circumstance, the Detroit Tigers open their week with four against the Minnesota Twins before heading out on the road to face the division-leading Cleveland Indians. Down 2-1 entering the bottom of the seventh, the Tigers roared for two in the home half, and another the following inning en route to a 4-2 win over the Twins.

After dropping two of three to the Orioles over the weekend, Detroit picked a game right back up as Baltimore is currently playing the Red Sox at Fenway to begin the week before returning home to face the Tampa Bay Rays. Following Monday’s games, the Red Sox still hold a two game lead over Toronto, who beat the Rays 3-2, while the Orioles fall to three back and New York dropped a game to sit at five back. The Yankees’ elimination number for a chance at the division is at 15, but they have seven games left with their rivals, including a four-game set this weekend in Boston.

Out in the west, the Rangers beat the Astros (surprise, surprise) to improve their record to 86-59. With the win, they retain a 9.5 game lead over the Mariners in the AL West, while the M’s and Astros have elimination numbers of nine and eight. With just 17 games left on the schedule, it would take a near miracle for either team to overtake the Rangers at this point.

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The Astros loss saw them miss out on a huge opportunity to gain ground in the wild card race with Baltimore previously dropping their game. The Yankees loss to the Dodgers at home leaves them at two back of Baltimore, while the Mariner win gets them nice and cozy with New York at 2.5 back.

As previously mentioned, the Giants failed to capitalize on a big opportunity in the first game of a three-game set with the Padres. The Cardinals, who are currently on the outside of the playoff race looking in, were no-hit by Kyle Kendricks and the Cubs for eight innings before Jeremy Hazelbaker ruined everything with a solo shot to lead off the bottom of the ninth.

The other team chasing San Francisco, the Mets, dropped the opener of their series with the Nationals in Washington in a game that was started by Mat Latos. The Marlins, Pirates and Rockies all dropped their games to remain extreme long shots to make the postseason.

Author’s Take:

The schedule that the Tigers have remaining, on paper looks fairly simple: Twins (3), @Cleveland (3), @Minnesota (3), Kansas City (3), Cleveland (4) and Atlanta (3). The Twins are the worst team in baseball this season, Cleveland could be resting up for the postseason, the Royals have injury concerns of their own, and the Braves are the second-worst team in baseball.

Therein lies the rub. Detroit is 1-11 against Cleveland this year, and 6-10 against the Royals. Their 10-2 record against the Twins will help, but at best that just offsets the two series against the Indians, if trends hold. According to previous outcomes this season, the Tigers would be expected to go roughly .500 over their final stretch of games, which likely isn’t enough to make the playoffs.

With four of the five teams in the AL East in competition for three playoff spots and all lined up to play one another, each day is an opportunity to gain ground. The Orioles, who have a one game lead over the Tigers, have split their season series with Boston thus far this season (6-6) with six left against the BoSox. They also have Tampa (11-4, four games left), Toronto (7-9, three games left) and New York (8-8, three games to end the season) as the rest of their divisional games. That basically equates to a .500 record as well, and with the Tigers trailing by a game, they can’t afford to play even with the O’s.

Baltimore also has three games from September 23-25 at home against the Diamondbacks, which could help swing that .500 or so expected outcome the remainder of the season to slightly above, which could be all they need to hold onto a MLB playoff spot.

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