This is the latest of our 2017 team previews. Each week during spring training, we’ll preview a division with a team each day (Monday-Friday). This week: The NL Central: Chicago Cubs | St. Louis Cardinals | Pittsburgh Pirates. Up next: Cincinnati Reds
LAST SEASON
73-89, fourth in NL Central
WHAT’S NEW
Key additions: RP Neftali Feliz (free agent from Pirates), 1B Eric Thames (free agent from Korea), 1B/3B Travis Shaw (trade from Red Sox), C Jett Bandy (trade from Angels), SP Tommy Milone (free agent from Twins), 2B Eric Sogard (free agent from A’s), RP Joba Chamberlain (free agent from Indians)
Neftali Feliz
Key subtractions: 1B Chris Carter (free agent to Yankees), RP Tyler Thornburg (traded to Red Sox), RP Blaine Boyer (free agent to Braves), C Martin Maldonado (traded to Angels), RP Chris Capuano (free agent)
Chris Carter
3 STRIKES
Ryan Braun
1. How much longer will Braun be a Brewer? If you fell asleep early in the 2015 season and just woke up today, you likely wouldn’t recognize much of the Milwaukee lineup, which has been completely overhauled over the past two years. In fact, of the 12 position players who appeared in the Brewers’ 2015 Opening Day game, 10 are no longer on the roster (including eight who were traded), leaving Ryan Braun and second baseman Scooter Gennett as the two lone holdovers. And at this point, there are no guarantees Braun will be around much longer, either. A six-time All-Star, Braun signed an extension in 2011 to keep him in Milwaukee through at least 2020, and it’s possible that the $80 million still owed to the 33-year-old — not to mention the damage his 2013 PED suspension did to his reputation — could make him tough to move. But for the right price, there will be plenty of teams interested, and if Milwaukee wants to take its rebuild to the next level, a Braun deal would do the trick.
Junior Guerra
2. Guerra’s second act. Junior Guerra was a pleasant surprise for the Brewers in 2016, as the right-hander went 9-3 with a 2.81 ERA in 20 starts after beginning the year at Triple-A, and his success made him the team’s de facto ace going into 2017. But maintaining that status will be easier said than done for the 32-year-old Venezuelan, a converted catcher whose past includes a 50-game PED suspension in 2008, as well as stops in Mexico, Italy, Venezuela and the independent American Association in recent years. Overall, the Brewers rotation had a promising second half in 2016, with their starters posting a collective 3.34 ERA in July and a 3.61 ERA in September and October. A 5.13 August ERA was sandwiched between them, of course, but that came with Guerra on the DL with an elbow injury. Guerra’s elbow is said to be fine now, however, and the team will likely go as he goes in 2017.
Eric Thames
3. Keep an eye on the corners. Milwaukee will have new faces manning both first and third base this season, as Thames and Shaw have taken over for the NL home runs leader Carter and Aaron Hill (and Will Middlebrooks and Jonathan Villar and Hernan Perez ...), respectively. And it’ll be interesting to see how the new guys fare, particularly Thames, who dominated in the Korean league in recent years but hasn’t played in a major-league game since 2012. In three seasons with the NC Dinos, Thames hit 124 home runs (one every 11 at bats), and posted a 1.171 OPS. If that power translates in the big leagues — Thames’ career OPS at the MLB level is a mostly average .727 — his three-year, $15 million deal will look like a steal (though perhaps not as much of a bargain as Carter’s one-year deal with the Yankees if he, too, maintains his 2016 pace). Similarly, Shaw is in his second full season as a major leaguer and is under team control until 2022, so this year could say a lot about the role he’ll play in the Brewers’ plans going forward.
BEST-CASE SCENARIO
The starting rotation remains as serviceable as it was in the second half of 2016, Feliz emerges as a reliable closer, prospects like outfielder Lewis Brinson (acquired in last season's Jonathan Lucroy trade) and left-hander Josh Hader (acquired in the Carlos Gomez trade in 2015) get the call and deliver, Milwaukee makes a serious run at a .500 season and has reason to feel positive about the team’s direction moving forward.
WORST-CASE SCENARIO
Injuries and ineffectiveness force the Brewers to use too much young talent too soon, those guys play like they still belong on the farm, the Brewers fall past the Reds into the basement of one of baseball’s toughest divisions and all the team’s wheeling and dealing since David Stearns' 2015 promotion to general manager feels like a waste.
David Stearns
SURPRISING STAT
In the eight seasons since CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets left the team, Milwaukee’s starting pitchers have combined to throw just 13 complete games, the fewest in baseball in that span. Last year, the Brewers were one of just four teams (along with the Blue Jays, Marlins and Yankees) to not have a single pitcher go the distance in a start.
BEST BETS
Projected win total (via Atlantis Casino Resort): 72.5
World Series odds (via VegasInsider.com): 300/1
Milwaukee Brewers
TOP FIVE FANTASY PLAYERS
1. Ryan Braun, OF: Braun is one of only three players to produce 40 or more stolen bases and 50 or more homers over the past two seasons. Mike Trout and Paul Goldschmidt are the other two.
2. Jonathan Villar, SS/3B: After 10 games at second to start the season, Villar will possess position eligibility at 2B/SS /3B with the expectation of 15 homers with 50 stolen bases. Some pundits are skeptical he can produce at that level two consecutive seasons.
3. Keon Broxton, OF: If you’re willing to punt the batting average, Broxton is a speculative fourth outfielder with strong HR/SB upside.
4. Hernan Perez, 3B/OF: One of the most popular waiver wire adds last season, Perez finished with 13 homers and 34 stolen bases. But he will have to fight for playing time as Travis Shaw is slated to start at third and Domingo Santana could platoon in right field.
5. Eric Thames, 1B: After mashing 124 homers over the past three seasons in the KBO (Korea), Thames – now 30 years old – returns to MLB. He’s another speculative draft pick, but is projected for 25-30 homers and 10+ stolen bases.
(Courtesy of FOX Sports Fantasy Baseball)
PREDICTION
Milwaukee stands pat at fourth in the NL Central.
