Major League Baseball

Midseason TPS report: Just one beast in NL East

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 6:45 p.m. ET

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Rob Neyer

So here’s the big problem with writing TPS reports: Things change! I guess I should just mention that every time on my cover sheets. Earlier this week, I wrote about the American League East and focused largely on the Yankees, because they really seem like they might go either way. They might collapse and finish last, or they might get hot (or at least warm) and challenge the O’s and Jays.

And then the Yankees lost Masahiro Tanaka, easily their best pitcher. Which makes an already-thin margin for error more like the world’s sharpest titanium razor blade. I was only willing to allow that the Yankees have a shot … which they still do. But without Tanaka it’s a significantly longer shot.

Now, about the National League East ... Did you know the Mets have a better run differential than the Yankees? It’s true. The Yankees have been outscored by 31 runs, yet they’re somehow 46-44. The Mets have actually outscored their opponents by six runs, yet they’re somehow 42-49. This is a bummer, of course; if the Mets’ record matched their run differential, they might actually entertain some vague postseason aspirations.

But while none would admit it publicly, I’ll bet there are some baseball executives glad their teams aren’t actually playing .500 ball. If you’re playing .500 ball, it’s hard to give up on a season — even if you know you should. And the Mets aren’t nearly as good as the best teams in the National League, so it’s best to just keep building for the future. And the same is true of the Marlins, who have hung around gamely despite the loss of Jose Fernandez.

The Marlins do have a wonderfully young and exciting outfield, and it looks like 24-year-old starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Henderson Alvarez are both for real. This team could get real good real fast! But probably not without Fernandez.

The Phillies are of course a big hot mess, last place with a $180 million payroll. And it’s last place on merit, as the Phillies have the second-worst run differential in the National League. I’m not going to write about the Phillies’ long-term future in this space; their short-term future should include trading Cliff Lee and reprimanding whoever approved a $125 million investment in Ryan Howard.

So on the face of things, there are only two postseason contenders in the East: the Nationals and the Braves. As I write these precious words, the Braves trail the Nationals by just one game ... but are they that close, really? The Nationals own the best run differential (+57) in the league, the Braves the eighth-best (+3). By some reasonably meaningful measures, the Braves haven’t played as well as the Mets.

They can play better. Their biggest problems have been an utterly non-productive bench and management’s unwillingness to give up on B.J. Upton. And it would help if Mike Minor stopped giving up home runs. Bottom line, the Braves’ record alone gives them a good shot at a playoff spot, but to win the East they’ll need some help from the Nationals.

Which they’re not likely to get. Look at the Nationals. They’re solid at essentially every position, with Ryan Zimmerman just sort of hanging around, looking for somewhere to play. They’ve got five starting pitchers who could qualify as aces on a fair number of other teams. Six of their seven relief pitchers have pitched exceptionally well this season, and figure to keep pitching well.

The Nationals just don’t have weaknesses. None that I can find, anyway. It’s pretty clear that the American League’s best team is the Athletics. But I haven’t figured out if the National League’s best team is the Dodgers, or the Nationals.

Sometimes Rob Neyer does his figuring on Twitter. It's safer there.

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