The Miami Marlins could use some starting pitching and have some depth in the outfield. Let’s try and put two and two together to make a playoff team.
The Miami Marlins finished 7.5 out in the NL wild card race after a rough final ten games, but could be a sneaky contender in 2017 with some shrewd moves. Marcel Ozuna has been drawing interest from a number of teams, but in order for the Fish to move their 26-year-old outfielder, they’ll need to get pitching in return.
The St. Louis Cardinals have a need for a power bat and could use a centerfielder.
This match seems to make a lot of sense. One pitcher that the Cardinals have been “floating” in trade talks is Michael Wacha. Wacha is eight months younger, but both players are signed through 2020 and are set to hit arbitration for the first time this winter.
While Mami may be looking for more than just one arm in return for Ozuna, and it’s possible that they could snatch Wacha and a lower level minor leaguer, a straight-up one-for-one deal seems more likely here. Ozuna is coming off of a solid rebound season, matching his career-high in home runs (23) while tallying a wRC+ of 105. Sacha held an ERA of just over five in 2016, but his 3.91 FIP suggests that he was pitching better than the results would indicate.
Over the last two seasons Wacha holds a higher cumulative WAR at 4.2 to 3.6, but Ozuna is still young and about to enter his prime power years. They could be due for very similar WAR figures for the duration of their contracts.
In a one-for-one deal, both teams come out winners.
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The Marlins shouldn’t stop there, however. With a rotation of Wacha, Adam Conley, Wei-Yin Chen, Tom Koehler and either Jose Urena or Jake Esch. Outside of the top two there isn’t a ton of confidence to go on here, but there are some parts that can get the job done. Arena had his moments, Koehler underperformed his career stats and Chen had the worst season of his career, so there is at least room for some optimism.
To replace Ozuna in the outfield, what if the Miami Marlins made a splash by targeting Ryan Braun? There are only six teams that he can’t block a trade to, and Miami is one of them. He would represent an upgrade in the lineup, as he has never had a wRC+ like Ozuna’s 105 in any level of professional ball. Last season he held a 133 mark, and even in his suspension-shortened 2013 season he racked up a 113.
Defensively, Braun would be an upgrade as well. He had one below average year in left field back in 2009, but since then has been a valuable piece of the Milwaukee defense. Christian Yelich hasn’t been as good of a defender in center as he is in left, but it would be hard to match the -12 DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) put up by Ozuna last season. Overall, this would still be an upgrade.
So the plan is essentially trading Ozuna, and some minor league depth for Wacha and Braun, which would represent two significant upgrades for the Marlins.
The reasoning behind these moves is simple: The Marlins window is open now. Giancarlo Stanton will be around seemingly forever, but he won’t be on the right side of 30 forever, and that time is a ticking. Yelich looked to put everything together in 2016, and it’s best to strike while the iron is hot.
Miami could wait for some of their minor league talent to mature and build a contender that way, but they may not have the luxury of time in order to make that happen. With other teams already well underway in their rebuilds, and holding arguably better assets to help them return to glory, a big push to the middle of the table could be what the Marlins need if they hope to make a playoff run any time soon.
While the Braves, Phillies, Brewers, Reds, Padres and potentially the Pirates and Diamondbacks are all building up, the Marlins can be aggressive and make some moves this winter to compete against a depleted National League.
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