Major League Baseball

Matt Duffy is baseball's biggest surprise

Published Jul. 1, 2015 12:06 p.m. ET

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By Dave Tobener

Guys drafted in the 18th round aren’t supposed to amount to much. Every once in a while you get lucky, but for the most part teams are drafting for organizational depth by then: players who might move up a level or two in the minors, but nothing more. It’s where teams draft a light-hitting infielder with a .253/.305/.289 overall college slash line with no career home runs.

The San Francisco Giants drafted that exact player in the 18th round of the 2012 Draft and likely didn’t expect much from him. But somehow, someway, Matt Duffy has become the Giants’ everyday third baseman, anchoring the middle of a lineup ravaged by injuries and helping to keep the defending champs in contention. Just like they drew it up.

Duffy is one of the most surprising stories in baseball, considering his standing as a non-prospect and the success he’s having at the big league level. If it were any other year, he’d be considered a top shelf candidate for Rookie of the Year. And while he most likely isn’t going to win the award – he doesn’t have the pedigree or hype of Joc Pederson and Kris Bryant – his numbers stack up when compared against the competition:

Pederson: 324 PA, .244/.384/.527, 20 HR, 38 RBI, 55 BB, 94 K

Bryant: 294 PA, .275/.381/.466, 10 HR, 43 RBI, 40 BB, 87 K

Duffy: 241 PA, .297/.343/.482, 8 HR, 37 RBI, 12 BB, 45 K

His numbers are right in line with two of the most heavily hyped rookies in recent memory, and in some cases are better. The true test will come when the league adjusts to Duffy, and the league will always adjust, but Duffy doesn’t seem like a one-trick pony. He’s not a batting average dependent hitter, nor is he a guy who always swings from his heels. He’s a solid all-around hitter, the kind of guy the Giants love to stack their lineup with, and he’s a good bet to adjust right back once the league figures him out.

Duffy has also managed to ease the Giants’ transition from Pablo Sandoval at third base, after the Casey McGehee experiment blew up in their face, waited a few minutes, and then blew up again. In fact, it’s easy to make the case that Duffy has been the better player than Sandoval through June:

Duffy: 241 PA, .297/.343/.482, 8 HR, 37 RBI, 12 BB, 45 K

Sandoval: 270 PA, .267/.315/.402, 7 HR, 26 RBI, 13 BB, 36 K

Numbers right on par with Sandoval’s, for approximately $16.5 million less. And Duffy has adjusted to third base well, playing excellent defense while learning the position as he goes. The Giants don’t miss Sandoval’s presence in the lineup just yet in large part because of what Duffy’s been able to do.

The Giants’ ability to produce position players from their system has been maligned for years, yet in the past two seasons alone they’ve brought up Joe Panik, Andrew Susac, and Duffy to great success. They wouldn’t have won the World Series last year without Panik, and Susac’s bat has allowed them to move Buster Posey to first base more often this year to help save his legs.

But Panik and Susac were high draft picks and expected to eventually produce. Duffy was an afterthought, a guy whose draft ceiling was probably utility infielder and defensive replacement. He wasn’t even assured of a roster spot out of spring training because he had minor league options left and the Giants didn’t want to expose Ehire Adrianza of all people to waivers. But his bat forced the Giants to keep him as a bench player, and it eventually forced them to admit the McGehee mistake and give Duffy the third base job. He hasn’t looked back.

Matt Duffy has been a revelation, the biggest surprise in baseball. And if the Giants make it back to the postseason this year, he’ll be a big reason why.

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