Houston Astros Top Starting Pitcher Trade Targets
The Houston Astros have already made multiple moves geared towards 2017, but are still in the market for starting pitching.
Two years ago, the Houston Astros arrived slightly ahead of schedule when they finished second in the AL West and claimed one of the wild card spots. They beat the Yankees in the wild card game, but lost to the Royals in the AL Division Series. Coming into that season they were expected to improve but were not expected to make the playoffs, so their playoff run was a pleasant surprise.
After that success, last year was a disappointment. They won two fewer games than the year before, finished third in the AL West, and did not make the playoffs. The main culprit in their disappointing season was a pitching staff that allowed 83 more runs than the year before. The offense was essentially the same, scoring five fewer runs than in 2015.
Since the 2016 season ended, the Astros have been busy. They signed Carlos Beltran, Josh Reddick, and Charlie Morton, traded for Brian McCann, and claimed Norichika Aoki off waivers. They now have a solid lineup, one through nine, but could use help in the starting rotation.
Their current one through five has some question marks:
Other options include Joe Musgrove, Brad Peacock, and David Paulino.
The free agent market doesn’t have much in the way of starting pitching this year, so the Astros will likely look to acquire a starting pitcher (or two) through the trade market. Here are seven pitchers they could target to help the team in 2017.
Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
RHP Chris Archer, Tampa Bay Rays
FanGraphs projection: 201 IP, 214 K, 3.34 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 4.1 WAR
2017–$4.75 million
2018–$6.25 million
2019–$7.5 million
2020–$9 million club option ($1.75 million buyout)
2021–$11 million club option (0.25 million buyout)
Chris Archer is right there with Jose Quintana as the most talented trade target for the Astros. Archer struggled a bit last year, posting a 4.02 ERA, but much of his difficulty was in allowing home runs, which he hasn’t historically struggled with. He gave up 30 home runs last year, an average of 1.3 per nine innings. His career rate is a more reasonable 0.9 HR/9.
Archer has terrific stuff. He’s had back-to-back seasons of striking out at least 27% of the batters he’s faced and ranks fifth in baseball in strikeout rate among qualified starting pitchers over the last two years. The four pitchers ahead of him are Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, and Noah Syndergaard.
The Tampa Bay Rays know Archer is a valuable commodity, especially with the team-friendly contract he’s signed to. Archer will make $18.5 million over the next three years and could make $38.5 million over five years if his two club options are picked up. That’s $7.7 million per year for five years for an elite starting pitcher. The Astros took a flier on Charlie Morton this off-season when they signed him to a 2-year, $14 million contract and Morton is coming of an injured season and is not even close to the pitcher Archer is.
Marc Topkin at the Tampa Bay Times has reported that the Rays are asking for 5-6 players for Archer. That’s a hefty price tag. They may be looking for a similar haul to what the White Sox got for Chris Sale. Archer isn’t as good as Sale, but he has five years of control at $38.5 million while Sale had 3 years at $38 million.
Of course, the number of players acquired in a trade would depend on the caliber of players. Baseball America has right-handed pitcher Francis Martes as the Astros’ #1 prospect. Outfielder Kyle Tucker is #2. To land Archer, the Astros would likely have to include one or both of those players, plus more. It really depends if they want to go “all in” for 2017 or look elsewhere for a pitcher who won’t demand such a hefty price.
Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
LHP Jose Quintana, Chicago White Sox
FanGraphs projection: 207 IP, 183 K, 3.74 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 4.2 WAR
2017–$7 million
2018–$8.85 million
2019–$10.5 million team option ($1 million buyout)
2020–$11.5 million team option ($1 million buyout)
Based on the Depth Chart projections at FanGraphs, Jose Quintana is right there with Archer in projected value. Both are projected to be four win players. Quintana has been very consistent over the last four years. He looks like a guy you can pencil in for 200 innings, 175 strikeouts, a 3.35 ERA, and 1.20 WHIP every year.
Like Archer, Quintana has a team-friendly contract. He’ll earn $15.85 million over the next two years. The two team options would make the contract $37.85 million over four years. That’s a very nice price for a consistent four-win pitcher.
The White Sox have made two very impressive trades so far this off-season. They got a bounty of prospects in their trades of Adam Eaton and Chris Sale and are expected to demand a high price for Quintana. Even though Quintana doesn’t have the name value of Chris Sale, his value in a trade is comparable. He may not be worth exactly as much as Sale in a trade, but he’s probably worth 80% or more of the value Sale brought back in the trade with the Red Sox. In that deal, the White Sox acquired the #1 prospect in baseball, Yoan Moncada, along with a high-ceiling arm in Michael Kopech, a toolsy outfielder (Luis Alexander Basabe), and a raw pitcher who’s fastball can touch 100 mph.
Archer and Quintana are the top shelf options the Astros could target in a trade. They would immediately be slotted in at the top of the rotation with current Astro Dallas Keuchel. The ‘Stros will have to pay a hefty price for either pitcher, though.
Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
LHP Danny Duffy, Kansas City Royals
FanGraphs projection: 197 IP, 187 K, 3.69 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 3.1 WAR
2017—Arbitration eligible, projected for $8.2 million
2018—Free Agent
According to MLB Trade Rumors, the Astros are looking at two Kansas City Royals’ pitchers—Danny Duffy and Yordano Ventura. The Royals recently traded Wade Davis and have made it clear they are willing to move more players. Duffy is one of those players they could trade.
Astros Interested In Danny Duffy, Yordano Ventura https://t.co/IH1H436LY4 pic.twitter.com/xRoZepu1ui
— MLB Trade Rumors (@mlbtraderumors) December 12, 2016
The Royals have had preliminary talks about a long-term contract with Duffy, but they haven’t moved beyond that. As of right now, he has one year left before free agency. He’s projected to earn $8.2 million through arbitration after having his best season in the big leagues last year. Duffy started the season in the bullpen, then moved to the rotation and pitched very well, with a 3.51 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. One of the keys to his success was an increased strikeout rate from around 18% of batters faced in 2015 to nearly 26% last year.
There are warning signs with Duffy. He’s had arm trouble in the past and he seemed to tire last season. In the first half, Duffy had a 3.40 FIP while striking out 28.8% of the batters he faced. In the second half, his FIP rose to 4.18 and his strikeout rate dropped to 23.3%. His average fastball velocity also declined as the year went on. He threw hardest when he was in the pen to start the year, which is typical for most pitchers. He maintained an average fastball velocity over 95 mph early on as a starter, but it dropped a couple miles per hour by the end of the year.
Based on projections, Duffy would be on a tier of his own. He’s below the “high-rent district” pair of Archer and Quintana but above the Yordano Ventura/ Drew Smyly tier. The benefit for the Astros is that Duffy wouldn’t require as steep a price because he’ll be a free agent at the end of the year.
Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports
RHP Yordano Ventura, Kansas City Royals
FanGraphs projection: 183 IP, 156 K, 3.93 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 2.6 WAR
2017–$3.45 million
2018–$6.45 million
2019–$9.95 million
2020–$12 million (team option, $1 million buyout)
2021–$12 million (team option, $1 million buyout)
If the Astros traded for Chris Archer or Jose Quintana, they would have a pitcher who would be right there with Dallas Keuchel at the top of the rotation. Danny Duffy is more of a #2 or #3. Yordano Ventura and the other guys on this list are mid-rotation starters and back-end guys.
In his rookie year in 2014, Ventura had a 3.20 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. He struck out 20.3% of the batters he faced and walked 8.8%. His FIP was 3.60. The next season, he struck out batters at a higher rate, 22.5%, and walked them less often, 8.4%, but he allowed a few more home runs. His ERA was 4.08, but his FIP was 3.57. He was essentially the same pitcher but had a little bit of good fortune in 2014 and a little bit of bad fortune in 2015.
Last year was different. Ventura’s strikeout rate dropped to 17.7% and his walk rate rose to 9.6%. His ERA was 4.45 and his FIP was even higher, at 4.59. He was a much worse pitcher. So, who is the real Yordano Ventura?
According to projections, he’s in between the 2014/15 guy and the 2016 guy. He’s projected for a 3.93 ERA with a 4.04 FIP. That projection would put him in the range of current Astros starter Collin McHugh and behind Keuchel and McCullers.
Ventura has a team-friendly contract with three years left at $19.85 million total, plus two team option years that could make it a five-year, $43.85 million deal. That’s an easy contract for most any team to take on, so Ventura’s value in a trade is likely higher than Duffy, who only has one year remaining before free agency. If the Astros want to shop in the mid-range market, Ventura and the next guy on the list are solid options.
Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
LHP Drew Smyly, Tampa Bay Rays
FanGraphs projection: 164 IP, 152 K, 3.86 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 2.5 WAR
2017—Arbitration eligible, projected for $6.9 million
2018—Arbitration eligible
2019—Free Agent
Drew Smyly’s stock is down after his 4.88 ERA in 2016. In 2015, he had a 3.11 ERA in 12 starts (but with a 3.91 FIP). He also struck out 28% of the batters he faced. Last year, he was healthy enough to start 30 games and pitch a career-high 175 1/3 innings, but that ugly 4.88 ERA and not-very-good FIP (4.49) was a step backwards. His strikeout rate also dropped to 22.6%.
The bigger problem for Smyly over the last two seasons has been the 43 home runs allowed in 242 innings. He’s allowed 1.6 home runs per nine innings, which is the fourth-worst in baseball for starting pitchers with 240 or more innings.
Smyly has two arbitration years before free agency. He’s projected to make close to $7 million through arbitration this year. He would likely be a more affordable option than any of the pitchers above him on this list, but that home run rate and a history of arm trouble make him risky.
One thing Smyly has going for him is that he’s left-handed. The current Astros’ rotation has just one lefty, Dallas Keuchel. Adding a second lefty to the mix would be beneficial, especially if Smyly can be a mid-rotation starter acquired through trade for a fair price.
Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
RHP Jake Odorizzi, Tampa Bay Rays
FanGraphs projection: 141 IP, 127 K, 4.02 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 1.8 WAR
2017—Arbitration eligible, projected for $4.6 million
2018—Arbitration eligible
2019—Arbitration eligible
2020—Free Agent
Jake Odorizzi is one of four Tampa Bay starting pitchers who could be available in a trade. As mentioned earlier, the Rays want a very hefty price for Chris Archer. They also value Odorizzi quite highly. Odorizzi has other suitors as well, including the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Drew Smyly is projected to be better than Odorizzi in 2017, but Odorizzi has three cost-controlled years remaining before free agency, so he will bring back more in a trade. Over the last three years, Odorizzi has been worth between 2 and 3 wins each year. He’s projected to be close to that level next year at a projected salary of around $4.6 million.
The Astros currently have Mike Fiers and Charlie Morton at the back end of their rotation and both are projected to be just slightly less valuable than Odorizzi, but they each come with bigger risk. Fiers has seen his FIP go from 2.99 to 4.03 to 4.43 over the last few years and his strikeout rate has dropped from 27.7% to 23.7% to 18.5%. He’s also given up a higher rate of home runs per nine innings in each of the last two years. In short, all of his peripherals are going the wrong direction.
Charlie Morton had just four starts last April before his season ended due to a hamstring injury. He looked good in those four starts, but it’s a very small sample size. It’s hard to know what Morton will do after missing most of the year.
Odorizzi is no workhorse, but he has been good for around 170 or more innings in each of the last three years. Over that stretch, he has a 3.72 ERA and 3.91 FIP. He’ll be 27 years old next March, so the remaining arbitration eligible years on his contract will carry him through his age 29 season. He’s a valuable commodity who will garner a solid price should the Astros target him. He wouldn’t cost as much in prospects as Archer or Quintana, but he’d cost more than the other guys on this list.
Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
RHP Alex Cobb, Tampa Bay Rays
FanGraphs projection: 119 IP, 89 K, 3.94 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 1.6 WAR
2017—Arbitration eligible, projected for $4.0 million
2018—Free Agent
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Alex Cobb is the most-attainable pitcher on this list because he has just one year of control before free agency and started just five games last year after coming back from Tommy John surgery. In those five starts, his fastball velocity was down at 90.4 mph, which is below the 91.7 mph he averaged in 2014. He was also not very effective, giving up 5 home runs in 22 innings and allowing an ERA of 8.59 with a 5.60 FIP.
Before missing the entire 2015 season and most of 2016, Cobb had pitched very well in 2013 and 2014. In 49 starts during those years, Cobb had a 2.82 ERA (3.29 FIP), and struck out 22.5% of the batters he faced. He was worth between 2.5 and 3 wins each year. If he can be that pitcher again, he would be a terrific value for the estimated $4 million he’ll cost in 2017.
Of course, we just don’t know how Cobb will do. The projections call for 1.6 WAR in 119 innings, which projects him to be an above average starter with a full season of innings, but the projections are missing almost two seasons of data. Should the Astros target Cobb in a trade, they’ll have to weigh what they saw prior to his Tommy John surgery with what they saw last September. The Rays will peddle Cobb as the 2013-2014 pitcher, while the Astros may end up with the 2016 version.
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