Major League Baseball

Hellickson, Sale top fantasy charts for rookie prospectors

Published Mar. 4, 2011 10:20 p.m. ET

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NORTHBROOK, Ill. (STATS) - Fantasy baseball owners know all too well that the breakout rookie can be the gold that helps your team strike it rich. If you do enough digging, you just might find that million dollar nugget.

Unfortunately, however, the bulk of prospectors in every gold rush are usually left with nothing more than unfulfilled expectations after traveling a risky path.

That never stops people from giving it a shot, though, and the potential reward of uncovering the next great superstar will no doubt again be enough to motivate fantasy owners to take some chances. This year's class is a solid one, although there are no guaranteed stars.

The top rookie being drafted in National Fantasy Baseball Championship drafts (NFBC) right now is Tampa Bay righty Jeremy Hellickson. The 23-year-old was Baseball America's Minor League Player of the Year after going 12-3 at Triple-A Durham with a 2.45 ERA and 123 strikeouts in 117 2-3 innings.

He was even more impressive after his August call-up, when he went 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA and 25 strikeouts in 26.1 innings.

The Rays were so confident in Hellickson that they traded Matt Garza to the Chicago Cubs in the offseason. Hellickson has gone as high as 119th in NFBC drafts in the last week and his Average Draft Position (ADP) is around 130, so don't wait too long if you want to get this year's top Rookie of the Year candidate.

There's a big dropoff after Hellickson, with White Sox reliever Chris Sale going next at about 240th. Sale is a 6-foot-5 lefty who was Chicago's first-round draft choice in 2010. He projects as a starting pitcher down the road, but, in 2011, will come out of the bullpen armed with a 100 mph heater.

Many feel the 21-year-old will end up closing after displaying the stuff that allowed him to strike out 32 batters in 23 1-3 innings a year ago. Look for him to start the season in a setup role, but anything is possible when you can throw the ball that hard with solid control.

Philadelphia's Domonic Brown and Atlanta's Freddie Freeman could be the NL's only rookie regulars this season, yet both are still lightly valued by fantasy owners. Brown has gone around 230th overall in recent NFBC drafts, but has also fallen below 260th.

Brown could find himself platooning in right field after struggling mightily in the Dominican Republic league (2-for-29) and thus far in spring training (0-for-15 with nine strikeouts through Thursday). It looks like he may need some more seasoning in the minors, but has the talent to be a star down the road.

Freeman is going around 270th overall after putting up a .319 average, 18 homers and 87 RBIs at Triple-A Gwinnett in 2010. Even though he's only 21, look for Freeman to start on Opening Day in Atlanta at first base. Freeman strikes an imposing frame of 6-5, 220 pounds, and looks to follow the success last year of teammate and best friend Jason Heyward.

There are a handful of other first-years getting drafted now who are not quite ready for starting roles, but could have a significant impact as the season develops.

Mike Moustakas won't start the season at third base in Kansas City, but by midseason he may very well be a fantasy star at the hot corner. The 22-year-old split time between Double-A and Triple-A last year and hit a combined .322 with 36 homers, 124 RBIs and 94 runs in 118 games. He crushes the ball and will soon be a middle-of-the-lineup hitter. His early ADP is 275.

Like Moustakas, Brandon Belt (327 ADP) likely won't start the season in the majors but could be a midseason call-up who more than holds his own for San Francisco. The first baseman impressed at the Arizona Fall League with his plate control, line-drive hitting ability and defensive skills around the bag. Giants fans will no doubt love his Will Clark-like swing.

Seattle second baseman Dustin Ackley (353 ADP) also wowed scouts in Arizona and could earn the starting job with the Mariners at some point. Angels' C Hank Conger isn't being drafted much in the Top 420, but could also make a significant impression.

On the mound, keep an eye on Toronto righty Kyle Drabek, who should join the Blue Jays rotation right away. Drabek went 0-3 in a 17-inning stint in the majors at the end of the season, but was the 18th pick in the 2006 draft and a key prospect in the Roy Halladay trade. His upside is high, as reflected by his ADP of 333.

Last year at this time, fantasy owners weren't quite sure what to make about names like Heyward, Buster Posey and Stephen Strasburg. Will this year's rookie crop return the same value? Only time will tell, but odds are there will be a gold nugget or two for the taking.

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Greg Ambrosius is the founder of the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, the industry's first multi-city, live events contest. He was voted into the first class of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association's Hall of Fame in 2010 and has been an editor of fantasy magazines for over 20 years. E-mail him at gambrosiusstats.com.

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